Which Senators do you think will not run for re-election in 2020?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Make a list of predictions.

[Politician]

Jim Risch (potential)
Dick Durbin (likely)
Pat Roberts (very likely)
Mitch McConnell (potential)
Susan Collins (potential)
Ed Markey (likely)
Jeanne Shaheen (potential)
Jim Inhofe (very likely)
Jack Reed (likely)
Lamar Alexander (likely)
Mike Enzi (very likely)

[Greedo punched first]

Jim Inhofe, Pat Roberts, Lamar Alexander, Ed Markey, and Mike Enzi.

[Orser67]

Pat Roberts, Jim Inhofe, and Lamar Alexander.

[😥]

1.Jim Risch (Idaho)
2.Dick Durbin (Illinois)
3.Pat Roberts (Kansas)
4.Ed Markey (Massachusetts)
5.Jim Inhofe (Oklahoma)
6.Lamar Alexander (Tennessee)

[MAINEiac4434]

Collins may just say “f**k it” with the constant protests outside her office and the fact that Republican primary voters still don’t trust her and retire.

The ensuing senate race will see several a-list candidates from both parties, and would be the political event of my life.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Susan Collins and Pat Roberts should Dems regain control in 2018

[Free Bird]

Risch
Durbin
Alexander
Enzi
Roberts
Inhofe
Shaheen
Maybe Markey

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Risch
Durbin
Alexander
Enzi
Roberts
Inhofe
Shaheen
Maybe Markey

Collins will lose to a Generic Dem and Pat Roberts will be primaried Shaheen will not retire and let Donald Trump have a chance to win NH

[MillennialModerate]

I’d like Susan Collins to run for Governor of Maine cause she seems like a decent enough person but rarely has the guts to stand up for what she believes in... case in point, this Supreme Court justice vote that’s upcoming.

Oh and PLEASE RETIRE MARKEY.... please. He’s so god awful it’s hard to watch.

and at the same time Kennedy likely runs and surely wins if Markey retires.

[PAK Man]

Jim Risch - I don't really see him going for it again. Maybe Labrador attempts a political comeback?

Dick Durbin - I'd bet money that Lisa Madigan runs for the seat. Everyone thinks it's Cheri Bustos, but I think she has higher aspirations.

Pat Roberts - After that close call in 2014, there's no way he's running again. Even if he survives the general, he won't survive the primary.

Jim Inhofe - He said the only reason he ran for reelection in 2014 was because Obama got reelected. I doubt he gives it another go.

Jack Reed - I'm kind of 50-50 on him retiring or not, but ultimately I think he steps aside.

Lindsey Graham - Again, I'm kind of 50-50 on whether he retires or not. If he doesn't, I suspect Trump will campaign against him and promote a primary challenger. Graham lucked out in 2014, but I don't know if that'll be true in 2020 or not. Honestly, I don't see him making it to the general in 2020.

Lamar Alexander - I'd be pretty surprised if he didn't retire.

Mike Enzi - Same situation as Alexander.

[TheBeardedOne]

If Ed Markey doesn’t run, and Joe Kennedy and Seth Moulton both run, who do you guys think will win? I think they’d both be heavy favorites

[Zaybay]

If Ed Markey doesn’t run, and Joe Kennedy and Seth Moulton both run, who do you guys think will win? I think they’d both be heavy favorites

Moulton probably, he has more control of the state, and Joe has a lot of issues that can be brought up, but I think that one of the progressive congressmembers, such as Clark, might run, and Warren will play kingmaker.

[SnowLabrador]

Surprised nobody has said Cory Gardner or Doug Jones.

[here2view]

Lamar Alexander - would be 80
Susan Collins - would be 67 (I think she pulls an Olympia Snowe and leaves, partly because the Senate is too polarized. I think she should have resigned post-2016, let LePage appoint someone, and then have run for Governor this Fall. I feel like she'd have been a great Governor.)
Dick Durbin - would be 2 weeks shy of 76
Mike Enzi - would be 76
Lindsey Graham - would be 65, I could see him getting fed up in the age of Trump
Jim Inhofe - would be a week or so shy of 86
Doug Jones - only if he's someone's VP nominee
Ed Markey - would be 74, Kennedy may run for seat
Jim Risch - would be 77
Pat Roberts - would be 84
Jeanne Shaheen - would be 73

[Rhenna]

In order of likelihood
1. Susan Collins (R-ME) - Polls indicate she is deeply unpopular, she may run but she'll get primaried out.
2. Ben Sasse (R-NE) - Hot take. I can see him pull a Jeff Flake and quit after 1 term due to dissatisfaction with DC.
3. Jim Inhofe (R-OK) - Age. I can also see him getting primaried out by a well funded challenger, like Hall vs Ratcliffe in TX-04 in 2014.
4. Pat Roberts (R-KS) - Age.
5. Cory Booker (D-NJ) - Presidential run.
6. Dick Durbin (D-IL) - Wikipedia indicates that he's running for a 5th term, but I think he'll pass the torch to Bustos or somebody younger.
7. John Cornyn (R-TX) - Age. I can see Ratcliffe, Thornberry, Hurd, Patrick, Paxton, or even Bush run to replace him.
8. Tom Udall (D-NM) - I can see him quietly departing Washington like Tim Johnson in 2014. No real reason, probably family or to spend more time at home.
9. McCain's Replacement (R-AZ) - Doubt Cindy McCain would run in 2020, maybe Meghan. Kyl wouldn't run again. I can see Kirk Adams or Barbara Barrett running in 2020.
10. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) - Age.

[MillennialModerate]

If Ed Markey doesn’t run, and Joe Kennedy and Seth Moulton both run, who do you guys think will win? I think they’d both be heavy favorites

Kennedy for sure. More name recognition and more connections. Plus the support of the party.

I’d like Moulton to try for speaker eventually but that’s unlikely.

[Torrain]

Obviously there’s a way to go yet, but taking all the hypotheticals into effect I’ll take a shot:

- Cornyn: but only if McConnell maintains his iron grip on the Leadership. Cornyn will be termed out of the Whip position after the midterms and if he’s replaced by Thune, (currently no. 3 in leadership) he’ll be supplanted as McConnell’s heir apparent.

- Sasse: has a candid tone about his dislike of Trump more suited to booktours and lectures than a GOP primary. He’s a loyal footsoldier when it comes to votes, but the example of candidates like Roby in AL show that that’s may not be enough for the base. May duck out if a politician like Gov. Ricketts floats a run.

- Shaheen: if Sununnu cruises to relection, and Trump’s numbers somehow tick up, leading to a grindingly close race amidst the presidential race. If Trump craters, I think she stays for another round, assured of coattails from the Dem nominee.

- Collins: if she votes for Kavanaugh, while  Golden and Mills win in November. Pretty confident she pulls a Snowe.

- Inhofe, Roberts: if either has any dreams of retirement (there’s always a chance they wants to go down as a senator, like several of his colleague have made clear they do)

- The Arizonan Incumbant: Kyl’s hint he might leave in 2019 leaves the chance that Ducey/Garcia have another appointment to make. A Garcia appointee would never make it through a GOP primary (I’m thinking Meghan McCain or a RINO), while Ducey could be tempted to appoint another placeholder and run himself, just as his second term wraps up, Manchin style. (If Sinema wins and AZ threatens a slide to the left, I’d expect Ducey to be recruited as the best chance to hold the seat, hence the Manchin reference)

- Graham: fluctuates between gentle criticism and full-throated praise of Trump. Run depends on what role he plays in Congress after the midterms. If Trump crosses another line, his tepid criticism could be enough to create an opening for a challenger, prompting him to follow Flake and Corker.

Wildcard pick- Tina Smith: Smith initially showed reluctance to run, was likely pursuaded to by the state party to prevent a messy primary, like we saw in the gubernatorial election. If the next two years are barmy (think post-impeachment senate trial, a third Supreme Court nomination, etc) I think she passes on the torch.

And the vulnerable incumbents I’m sure are running, barring unforeseen circumstances

- Jones: likely going to rerun Brown’s 2012 race, but sounds determined to run, and seems to be energised by the sheer unlikelihood of his political career.

- Gardener: going to fight, likely to fail

[Skill and Chance]

Collins and Sasse could probably go Indie and win in 2020.  They are young enough that that seems more likely than retirement.