Which Senators do you think will not run for re-election in 2020?

[Torrain]

Obviously there’s a way to go yet, but taking all the hypotheticals into effect I’ll take a shot:

- Cornyn: but only if McConnell maintains his iron grip on the Leadership. Cornyn will be termed out of the Whip position after the midterms and if he’s replaced by Thune, (currently no. 3 in leadership) he’ll be supplanted as McConnell’s heir apparent.

- Sasse: has a candid tone about his dislike of Trump more suited to booktours and lectures than a GOP primary. He’s a loyal footsoldier when it comes to votes, but the example of candidates like Roby in AL show that that’s may not be enough for the base. May duck out if a politician like Gov. Ricketts floats a run.

- Shaheen: if Sununnu cruises to relection, and Trump’s numbers somehow tick up, leading to a grindingly close race amidst the presidential race. If Trump craters, I think she stays for another round, assured of coattails from the Dem nominee.

- Collins: if she votes for Kavanaugh, while  Golden and Mills win in November. Pretty confident she pulls a Snowe.

- Inhofe, Roberts: if either has any dreams of retirement (there’s always a chance they wants to go down as a senator, like several of his colleague have made clear they do)

- The Arizonan Incumbant: Kyl’s hint he might leave in 2019 leaves the chance that Ducey/Garcia have another appointment to make. A Garcia appointee would never make it through a GOP primary (I’m thinking Meghan McCain or a RINO), while Ducey could be tempted to appoint another placeholder and run himself, just as his second term wraps up, Manchin style. (If Sinema wins and AZ threatens a slide to the left, I’d expect Ducey to be recruited as the best chance to hold the seat, hence the Manchin reference)

- Graham: fluctuates between gentle criticism and full-throated praise of Trump. Run depends on what role he plays in Congress after the midterms. If Trump crosses another line, his tepid criticism could be enough to create an opening for a challenger, prompting him to follow Flake and Corker.

Wildcard pick- Tina Smith: Smith initially showed reluctance to run, was likely pursuaded to by the state party to prevent a messy primary, like we saw in the gubernatorial election. If the next two years are barmy (think post-impeachment senate trial, a third Supreme Court nomination, etc) I think she passes on the torch.

And the vulnerable incumbents I’m sure are running, barring unforeseen circumstances

- Jones: likely going to rerun Brown’s 2012 race, but sounds determined to run, and seems to be energised by the sheer unlikelihood of his political career.

- Gardener: going to fight, likely to fail