By-elections, Ireland, 29th November 2019

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

By-elections tonight in Wexford, Cork North-Central, Dublin Fingal and Dublin Mid-West, all to replace incumbents who have ascended to the European Parliament.

In Wexford, the FG candidate has had to apologize due to comments criticizing asylum seekers, leading to criticism from the national party. Most likely a Fianna Fail gain.

In Dublin FIngal, the FF candidate is also favoured, although she has herself been embroiled in a controversy due to old tweets about travellers.

Dublin Mid-West is a battle between Fine Gael and the Green turned Independent Paul Gogarty, who you may remember for his f bombs in the Dail during the FF-Green coalition era.

Finally, Cork North Central will also probably be favoured by FF.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/constituency-byelection-profile-cork-north-central-1.4090108?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/constituency-byelection-profile-dublin-mid-west-1.4091268

[ObserverIE]

Dublin Mid West tally here.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Dublin Mid West tally here.

Tallys for the other counts
Dublin Fingal
Wexford
Cork North-Central

[ObserverIE]

Cork North Central
Electorate: 85,524 Total Poll: 25,854 (30.2%) Spoiled Votes: 257 Valid Poll: 25,567 Quota: 12,784

Pádraig O'Sullivan	FF	(28.0)	7,148	7,154	7,177	7,202	7,250	7,451	7,544	7,878	8,657	11,633
Colm Burke	FG	(21.1)	5,385	5,386	5,398	5,431	5,469	5,593	5,684	6,118	6,972
Thomas Gould	SF	(19.7)	5,041	5,042	5,077	5,275	5,368	5,479	5,935	6,184	7,130	8,044
John Maher	Lab	(9.7)	2,482	2,485	2,501	2,565	2,705	2,750	2,947	3,866
Oliver Moran	GP	(7.4)	1,883	1,884	1,898	1,932	2,095	2,195	2,537
Fiona Ryan	SP	(4.4)	1,121	1,125	1,155	1,260	1,436	1,534
Finian Toomey	Aontú	(3.9)	1,008	1,015	1,042	1,070	1,098
Sinéad Halpin	SD	(2.5)	644	644	652	727
Martin Condon	Ind	(1.1)	291	294	347
James Coughlan	WP	(1.1)	281	285	290
Thomas Kiely	Ind	(0.9)	234	248
Charlie Keddy	Ind	(0.2)	49

[MaxQue]

By-elections tonight in Wexford, Cork North-Central, Dublin Fingal and Dublin Mid-West, all to replace incumbents who have ascended to the European Parliament.

In Wexford, the FG candidate has had to apologize due to comments criticizing asylum seekers, leading to criticism from the national party. Most likely a Fianna Fail gain.

In Dublin FIngal, the FF candidate is also favoured, although she has herself been embroiled in a controversy due to old tweets about travellers.

Dublin Mid-West is a battle between Fine Gael and the Green turned Independent Paul Gogarty, who you may remember for his f bombs in the Dail during the FF-Green coalition era.

Finally, Cork North Central will also probably be favoured by FF.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/constituency-byelection-profile-cork-north-central-1.4090108?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/constituency-byelection-profile-dublin-mid-west-1.4091268

Looks like a Green in Dublin Fingal and a SF in Dublin Mid-West.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Wouldn't count FG out in DMW, given SF tend to do pretty poorly with transfers from almost everybody else.

[Kevinstat]

Dublin Mid West tally here.

Tallys for the other counts
Dublin Fingal
Wexford
Cork North-Central

Do you also have a Dublin Mid-West tally in that format?  I find the format of your links a little easier to grasp than that in ObserverIE's link.

[Kevinstat]

It seems surprising that those who voted for the bottom three candidates in Dublin Fingal (508 voters in all) all had a second preference (or a third or fourth preference if their second or third preferences were for one of the other of those three candidates who were batch eliminated).  None of those votes were non-transferable, while 5 of last-place Independent candidate Charlie Keddy's 49 votes in Wexford were.

[Kevinstat]

Dublin Mid West tally here.

Tallys for the other counts
Dublin Fingal
Wexford
Cork North-Central

Do you also have a Dublin Mid-West tally in that format?  I find the format of your links a little easier to grasp than that in ObserverIE's link.

Found it

[Keep Calm and ...]

Dublin Mid West tally here.

Tallys for the other counts
Dublin Fingal
Wexford
Cork North-Central

Do you also have a Dublin Mid-West tally in that format?  I find the format of your links a little easier to grasp than that in ObserverIE's link.

here

all from https://twitter.com/gavreilly

[Kevinstat]

Dublin Mid West tally here.

Tallys for the other counts
Dublin Fingal
Wexford
Cork North-Central

Do you also have a Dublin Mid-West tally in that format?  I find the format of your links a little easier to grasp than that in ObserverIE's link.

here

all from https://twitter.com/gavreilly

I had just discovered that before you replied, but thanks.

[ObserverIE]

Dublin Fingal
Electorate: 99,039 Total Poll: 25,344 (25.6%) Spoiled Votes: 254 Valid Poll: 25,090 Quota: 12,546

Joe O'Brien	GP	(22.9)	5,744	5,837	5,965	6,091	6,784	7,984	9,183	12,315
Lorraine Clifford-Lee	FF	(18.5)	4,631	4,672	4,766	4,929	5,252	5,648	6,547	7,754
Duncan Smith	Lab	(15.2)	3,821	3,866	3,926	4,008	4,347	4,999	6,300
James Reilly	FG	(14.8)	3,707	3,753	3,803	3,882	3,992	4,200
Dean Mulligan	I4C	(10.2)	2,550	2,606	2,745	2,909	3,754
Ann Graves	SF	(5.3)	1,327	1,361	1,402	1,481
Tracey Carey	SD	(4.4)	1,106	1,125	1,214	1,273
Gemma O'Doherty	Ind	(4.1)	1,026	1,088	1,149
Glenn Brady	Ind	(2.7)	670	726
Peadar O'Kelly	Ind	(1.4)	350
Charlie Keddy	Ind	(0.4)	112
Cormac McKay	Ind	(0.2)	46

[bigic]

Gemma O'Doherty (far-right conspiracy theorist) transfers went firstly to Fianna Fail and secondly (by just one vote less) to... left-wing Independents for Change?!

[Kevinstat]

Gemma O'Doherty (far-right conspiracy theorist) transfers went firstly to Fianna Fail and secondly (by just one vote less) to... left-wing Independents for Change?!

One vote transfer to I4C than to FF in the table I'm looking at, actually.

[bigic]

Gemma O'Doherty (far-right conspiracy theorist) transfers went firstly to Fianna Fail and secondly (by just one vote less) to... left-wing Independents for Change?!

One vote transfer to I4C than to FF in the table I'm looking at, actually.

My mistake. Yes, there is one more vote transferred to I4C than to FF.

[ObserverIE]

Dublin Mid West
Electorate: 73,152 Total Poll: 19,447 (26.6%) Spoiled Votes: 210 Valid Poll: 19,237 Quota: 9,619

Mark Ward	SF	(24.0)	4,622	4,709	4,812	5,228	5,426	5,616	6,293	6,652	7,669
Emer Higgins	FG	(18.6)	3,576	3,603	3,703	3,748	3,959	4,362	4,583	5,287	7,144
Paul Gogarty	Ind	(12.7)	2,435	2,557	2,680	2,840	3,176	3,731	4,099	5,063
Shane Moynihan	FF	(11.8)	2,264	2,304	2,360	2,394	2,564	2,758	2,894
Francis Timmons	Ind	(6.8)	1,299	1,365	1,410	1,590	1,807	1,929
Joanna Tuffy	Lab	(6.7)	1,294	1,333	1,442	1,547	1,775
Peter Kavanagh	GP	(6.4)	1,222	1,268	1,393	1,544
Kellie Sweeney	SWP	(4.4)	983	1,138	1,281
Anne-Marie McNally	SD	(4.1)	788	845
David Gardiner	WP	(1.6)	317
Ruth Nolan	I4C	(1.4)	271
Charlie Keddy	Ind	(0.5)	95
Peter Madden	Ind	(0.4)	71

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lol serves me right fpr making predictions on the fly. Shame on the people of Dublin MW for not voting for  YOU DEPUTY STAGG though.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

An article I read about the by-elections said that there is a confidence vote for the Housing Minister on Tuesday and that with these results the government is now depending on independents they have no formal arrangements with to stay afloat. Is there a risk the government falls on Tuesday or are the independents friendly to the government? If the government lost confidence would there be a period for an alternative coalition to emerge or would the Dail dissolve and new elections be called right away?

[ObserverIE]

Wexford
Electorate: 114,483 Total Poll: 40,382 (35.3%) Spoiled Votes: 314 Valid Poll: 40,068 Quota: 20,035

Malcolm Byrne	FF	(31.2)	12,506	12,660	13,082	14,729	18,830
Verona Murphy	FG	(23.8)	9,543	9,620	9,943	10,836
George Lawlor	Lab	(20.0)	8,024	8,112	8,517	10,907	14,476
Johnny Mythen	SF	(10.3)	4,125	4,344	4,665
Karin Dubsky	GP	(6.2)	2,490	2,745	3,037
Jim Codd	Aontú	(5.2)	2,102	2,395
Cinnamon Blackmore	SWP	(1.6)	659
Melissa O'Neill	IFP	(1.2)	489
Charlie Keddy	Ind	(0.5)	130

[ObserverIE]

Dublin Mid West tally here.

Tallys for the other counts
Dublin Fingal
Wexford
Cork North-Central

The DMW one is a box tally - unofficial but usually highly accurate, giving figures for each individual polling station.

[ObserverIE]

An article I read about the by-elections said that there is a confidence vote for the Housing Minister on Tuesday and that with these results the government is now depending on independents they have no formal arrangements with to stay afloat. Is there a risk the government falls on Tuesday or are the independents friendly to the government? If the government lost confidence would there be a period for an alternative coalition to emerge or would the Dail dissolve and new elections be called right away?

I suspect they'll survive because no-one has an appetite for a late December election.

And after today's results, FG least of all. The DMW candidate seemed to spend most of her time campaigning against government policies on housing and transport while not mentioning who was actually running the government. As for the other seats, FG had some hope of winning Wexford until the candidate started shooting their mouth off and would have expected to be competitive in the other two (CNC moreso than Fingal). To fail to get to the last count in any of the other three seats is a very poor showing.

[Kevinstat]

It's interesting that all four of these by-elections took place in constituencies for which no change was made in the 2017 boundary revisions (I'm sure the by-elections would have been on the same boundaries used in the 2016 election in any case).  Nor was the Ceann Comhairle either at the time of the 2016 election or at present from either of those constituncies, although since that's only two TDs that's not surprising.