Battle River-Crowfoot had its best Tory result in 2019, interestingly. It may well have peaked; after all, it was it its most Tory when the country was decidedly not. In 1984, when Mulroney got an absolute majority of the popular vote, its partial predecessor Crowfoot was only at 78% Tory, compared to 85% in 2019. In this seat Reform+PC got in the high 80s not long afterwards.
Insofar as it moves at all (we are talking about a few points here and there I think), I doubt it is likely to go in the same direction as the rest of Canada. That said, I can't say which alternative is more likely.
Remember that a *whole lot of* Prairie Conservative results were best-ever under Scheer in '19; there was never such a flurry of high 70s and 80s shares, not even under Harper. And if things seemed "only" 78% or so-and-so in the Mulroney era, it's because even then, voting in the Prairies wasn't so sectionalized as it became more recently--so a faint echo of how the NDP and even the Libs were far more viable in rural ManSask than they are in the present. (And even in '84, splitting on the right happened; there were Confederation of Regions and Socred canidates in Crowfoot that year.)
So it's when the right fractures that Crowfoot falls off its best-Con high horse--national trends only determine how nuclear the victory for that united vote is.
