The youth vote in 2016

[Mehmentum]

This is basically a re-hash of a thread in the Election Trends board.

Here's what I said:

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The article the OP quotes claims that Romney won 18 to 20 year olds in a landslide. If it's true, shouldn't we see at least a hint of that in 2014? 2012's 18-20 year olds were 20-22 in 2014.

In other words, the supposed Romney voting millennials should make up the majority of the 18-24 vote in 2014.  Yet, Democrats do just as well among them nationally as their slightly older counterparts.

We did see a hint of that in 2014.  Voters 18-24 were slightly more Republican than those 25-29, despite the fact that they included 23 and 24 year olds.  The 2014 23 and 24 year olds were significantly more liberal than 25-29s or, especially, 18-22s.  That was the generation most susceptible to buying into the "hope and change" in '08.  Notice that 21 year-olds in 2012 (23 in 2014) voted 75% for Obama, while he lost the 18-20 vote handily.

There's one big problem with that.

In 2012, Obama got 60% of the vote with both 18-24 and 25-29 year olds.  In other words, these two groups were stationary with respect to each other between the two years.

Its almost impossible for this to make any sense if you assume a bunch of Republicans are entering the 18-24 age group.  You'd have to do something weird like claim that the 23-24 year olds in 2012 were as Republican as the new voters in 2014.

Alright, there is a 3-point shift with how these groups voted compared to each other.  This is due to 2012's Gary Johnson voters returning to the Republicans in 2014 (18-24 year olds were twice as likely to vote Libertarian than 25-29 year olds).  Democrats perform equally well with both groups in both years, winning 60% in each in 2012, and 54% each in 2014.  Meanwhile some 18-24 Libertarians returned to the fold for the GOP in 2014, giving them a slight boost in the cohort compared to the 25-29 group.

[hopper]

Almost every 18-20 year old that I know is an absolute moron. So, it makes sense that they'd vote for Romney. I believe the stats.

I just find it far-fetched that in terms of demographics that Romney won with 18-20 year olds is feasible. Like were 18-20 year old Hispanics in 2012 that much more Americanized than Hispanics over the age of 20 in 2012? The average age of a Hispanic Person in the US is 27 years old so the case could be made that a 18-20 year old Hispanic is more Americanized than a Hispanic Person over the age 20(back in 2012.) Maybe there is a cutting line between the age of 20 and 21. I just doubt it.

Hispanic Vote 18-29 years old in 2012 but not 18-20 years old:

Male 66-29D
Female 82-17D(Hispanic Females voted exactly like Black Men 18-29 years old did.)

White Women 18-29 years old: 49-48R(spilt between the 2 parties.)
White Men 18-29 years old 54-41R

Black Women-98-1%D

Boy the Spread between the Black Men and Black Women Vote(18-29 years old) in 2012 is sort of alarming.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Highly likely to go Republican in 2016.

Not possible unless we can get a significant proportion of the Latino vote

[Figueira]

All the speculation about people born in the mid-to-late 1990s being more Republican seems to be wishful thinking by Republicans (especially young Republicans), accompanied by a poor understanding of how polling works. I have yet to see any actual evidence for it.