The Spotlight

[MAS117]

What can Mark Warner do to stay in the spotlight to run for President in 2008?

[Moooooo]

What can Mark Warner do to stay in the spotlight to run for President in 2008?

Camp out in Iowa and New Hampshire after his term ends.

[Moooooo]

Oh yeah, Warner has a MAJOR league bank account.  So he will have no problem getting his message out and keeping it there.

[Frodo]

What can Mark Warner do to stay in the spotlight to run for President in 2008?

run for George Allen's senate seat.  spin the media by lowering expectations ahead of time by reminding everyone just how formidable an opponent Sen. George Allen is, and then impressing everyone with his vote total if he loses.

then, he could run for John Warner's senate seat for a second round two years later -or run for the Democratic presidential nomination.   

[Frodo]

.....or, alternatively, he could take over the New Democratic Coalition as its chairman, and become the face of the centrist wing of the Democratic Party vis-a-vis DNC chairman Howard Dean, the head of the progressive-liberal wing.   

[Akno21]

But if he somehow beats Allen, then he's got a senate seat, and he'd be ignoring that basically the second he got inagurated to campaign for President.

[skybridge]

What can Mark Warner do to stay in the spotlight to run for President in 2008?

Nothing, I hope.

[dazzleman]

What can Mark Warner do to stay in the spotlight to run for President in 2008?

run for George Allen's senate seat.  spin the media by lowering expectations ahead of time by reminding everyone just how formidable an opponent Sen. George Allen is, and then impressing everyone with his vote total if he loses.

then, he could run for John Warner's senate seat for a second round two years later -or run for the Democratic presidential nomination.   

Running for George Allen's Senate seat would be a big gamble.  I don't think it's possible to win the presidency on the heels of a recent loss in your home state.  As far as I can remember, the last person to do that was Richard Nixon, and he won the presidency 6 years after losing the California governorship.

[dazzleman]

But if he somehow beats Allen, then he's got a senate seat, and he'd be ignoring that basically the second he got inagurated to campaign for President.

That's another good point.  I'd say he should do something like Ronald Reagan did after he left the California governorship and lost the 1976 Republican nomination.  He had a radio show, wrote, and remained active in political issues.  I'm not sure Warner has any signature ideas the way Reagan did, or whether he is just a self-promoter.

He could also do what Nixon did in his "wilderness" years, and collect political IOU's by campaigning for Democratic (in Nixon's case it was Republican) candidates around the country.

[AuH2O]

Warner only runs for Senate if he's giving up on 2008.

[Moooooo]

Warner only runs for Senate if he's giving up on 2008.

What is your overall assessment of Warner as a governor, his political ambitions, etc...? You live in his state and have to deal with him more than most of us.

[AuH2O]

Warner only runs for Senate if he's giving up on 2008.

What is your overall assessment of Warner as a governor, his political ambitions, etc...? You live in his state and have to deal with him more than most of us.

Warner is smart and practical. He lacks charisma and is pretty businesslike, but speaks well. I think he much prefers executive roles over the prospect of being in a legislature, though of course at this point the Senate would be his target and that's a cushy job.

He's shown a willingness to abandon core Democrat constituencies, even those that supported him in 2001. Indeed, if he ran for reelection I think he would not have an easy time. In any case, he's fairly young and it's hard to believe he doesn't covet the highest office in the world; he also knows he might have a window in which such a run is feasible.

Based on his 2001 campaign and record as Governor, Warner's biggest problem will come from the left. The DKos types haven't had opportunity to bash him excessively yet, but once the leading leftists in the 2008 attack Warner, their shills will join.

So, in the primary, can he overcome those attacks? In a general, could he demonstrate enough charisma? Those are the questions. With a law mandated single term, in a state without a really powerful governor and with a GOP-dominated legislature, his record in government is limited, but his business success will count for something.

Ultimately, he is kind of a low-key, mild 'reformer' that doesn't rock the boat (reform is in the eye of the beholder). He will probably make a run at the Senate eventually if he doesn't run for President, which I would imagine he won't do without some real hope for success. Odds are against him... I say 35% chance he runs, 5% he wins nomination.

[Moooooo]

Indeed, if he ran for reelection I think he would not have an easy time.

So your saying if he was able to run for re-election he would have a hard time winning a 2nd term?

[TheresNoMoney]

Based on his 2001 campaign and record as Governor, Warner's biggest problem will come from the left. The DKos types haven't had opportunity to bash him excessively yet, but once the leading leftists in the 2008 attack Warner, their shills will join.

The DKos types? What is that supposed to mean? Daily Kos is a great site with some real, in-depth political discussion.

I read Daily Kos all the time and the only bad thing I've ever heard about Warner is that he lacks charisma. Besides that, I think most "DKos types" would gladly support him. I know I would.

[Erc]

But if he somehow beats Allen, then he's got a senate seat, and he'd be ignoring that basically the second he got inagurated to campaign for President.

That's another good point.  I'd say he should do something like Ronald Reagan did after he left the California governorship and lost the 1976 Republican nomination.  He had a radio show, wrote, and remained active in political issues.  I'm not sure Warner has any signature ideas the way Reagan did, or whether he is just a self-promoter.

He could also do what Nixon did in his "wilderness" years, and collect political IOU's by campaigning for Democratic (in Nixon's case it was Republican) candidates around the country.

But Nixon and Reagan were big names...
Nixon was VP and came ridiculously close to winning in 1960...
Reagan was an actor, a popular governor of CA, and came ridiculously close to winning the '76 primaries.

Warner's a one-term governor of Virginia who nobody off of this board knows.

It's certainly possible (Dean had been out of office for two years before 2004, and he was probably less known than Warner at the time)...but don't start comparing him to Nixon or Reagan.  Different league entirely.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Based on his 2001 campaign and record as Governor, Warner's biggest problem will come from the left. The DKos types haven't had opportunity to bash him excessively yet, but once the leading leftists in the 2008 attack Warner, their shills will join.

Funny, they seem to like him.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/8/03116/3996

[BobOMac2k2]

nothing...

[AuH2O]

Indeed, if he ran for reelection I think he would not have an easy time.

So your saying if he was able to run for re-election he would have a hard time winning a 2nd term?

In VA, it's certainly possible. Warner v. Kilgore would be a tough race.


to Scoonie, jfern, other crazy leftists: Warner is just fine by the Kossacks and their ilk only because he's a Governor, and most of their criticism is aimed at Capitol Hill. Few really know his record or followed his 2001 campaign. Most of all, Warner is not in a primary yet.

Were Warner to enter the primary, people would start picking sides, and it would be a race to the left. A race Warner can't win, and for that he would be abandoned by Democratic activists. This is fairly obvious game theory and if Warner enters the race that's exactly what will happen.

The only X factor is if the Democrats are destroyed in 2006.

[Joe Biden 2020]

All Mark Warner has to do is look to his neighbor to the south and follow his lead.  John Edwards retired from the Senate to focus on the VP Campaign in 2004, and is now the big whig at a college in North Carolina (Position??).  I think Edwards is doing that just to pass the time by until after the 2006 mid-terms when he will start campaigning for President.  Mark Warner should look at some leadership role at Univ of Virginia or Virginia Tech or one of the bigger colleges in Virginia and wait until early in 2007 and then start venturing to Iowa and New Hampshire around December 2006 or January 2007, a year before the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary.

[Moooooo]

In VA, it's certainly possible. Warner v. Kilgore would be a tough race.

If you were forced to bet some big money on that race... Who would you take?

[TheresNoMoney]

Were Warner to enter the primary, people would start picking sides, and it would be a race to the left. A race Warner can't win, and for that he would be abandoned by Democratic activists.

You may be very surprised come 2008.

[AuH2O]

In VA, it's certainly possible. Warner v. Kilgore would be a tough race.

If you were forced to bet some big money on that race... Who would you take?

Uhh wow. As always it would depend on the odds. At 1:1 (even) I don't see how I could not pick Warner, particularly if Potts was stilling pulling his shenanigans. But if Warner was given, say 7:5 (~58% chance of winning), then I would go Kilgore. The problem with Kilgore is that his AG race was a gimme... I mean, honestly, a black gun-control fanatic is not exactly a brilliant template to win in VA.

Normally, I downgrade candidates when their previous opposition was weak, and I would have to apply that to Kilgore. He'll dispatch Kaine easily but Warner would have a slight edge were there no term limit.

[AuH2O]

Were Warner to enter the primary, people would start picking sides, and it would be a race to the left. A race Warner can't win, and for that he would be abandoned by Democratic activists.

You may be very surprised come 2008.

Doubtful. First of all, I'm hard to surprise... it happened once in the last year or two I can think of, which was when a hot girl randomly started making out with me. Well, I was a little surprised about the 2004 CO Senate race and when AJ Pierzynski took Billy Koch out of the yard in the 2002 playoffs.

Second of all, if you think someone can just shaft the NEA, OK abortion restrictions, and then skip like Mary Poppins to the Democratic nomination, you are out of touch with reality.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In VA, it's certainly possible. Warner v. Kilgore would be a tough race.


to Scoonie, jfern, other crazy leftists: Warner is just fine by the Kossacks and their ilk only because he's a Governor, and most of their criticism is aimed at Capitol Hill. Few really know his record or followed his 2001 campaign. Most of all, Warner is not in a primary yet.

Were Warner to enter the primary, people would start picking sides, and it would be a race to the left. A race Warner can't win, and for that he would be abandoned by Democratic activists. This is fairly obvious game theory and if Warner enters the race that's exactly what will happen.

The only X factor is if the Democrats are destroyed in 2006.

Did you read the speech? He could easily win the primary. It's not just about exactly where they are on the political spectrum, it's also about how they can frame their message and stand up to the Republicans. He looks pretty damn good.

As for 2006, anyone who is predicting more than 4 seat change either way in the Senate is crazy.

[Joe Republic]

I know it's an awkward comparison, but Howard Dean was a former governor by the time of the primaries.  He'd built up an apparently massive grassroots following in the meantime, using the internet and all kinds of activities to get his name out there.  Despite all that, he still came crashing down in the primaries.

Now, whether Warner could do the same and actually pull it off is a different story.  But that's what I'd recommend.  Nothing near as risky as a senate bid.