Primaries to watch Tuesday (5/14/24)- Maryland, Nebraska, West Virginia

[Tekken_Guy]

Looking at the Maryland results, this is starting to look somewhat like what I predicted for Maryland in my Ron DeSantis TL ("A Blank Canvas") I did not too long ago, particularly the congressional races in MD-02 and MD-03 where it's Johnny Olszewski versus Kim Klacik in the former and Sarah Elfreth on top in the latter. Except for sure the Democrats are certain to hold onto those seats unless Dems really get burnt fried crispy with whatever "October Surprise" comes about (especially if the result is unfavorable to the Dems, or a major economic setback like a default on the national debt is what the surprise is about).

It's also fair to say that the Millennial vote is indeed the "it vote" now, especially considering in MD-03 you had several state legislators running, duking it out and sacrificing what otherwise could have been safe legislative seats for the once-in-a-blue-moon chance to represent their area in Congress. And considering this and MD-02 are suburban bastions (in this case, suburbs of Baltimore), it doesn't shock me if the primary rationale for Elfreth being on top in her primary has to with undecided Dems settling on the candidate whose parents put her in pink Pampers as a baby - as blue and pink diapers were actually quite common when many of today's Millennials were babies themselves (I for one was in blue diapers as a baby!).

There are of course other factors as well, such as Elfreth being backed by a sizable number of Maryland Dem insiders as well as AIPAC and a splintered progressive vote, but the fact that Elfreth pulled ahead of Harry Dunn (whose primary M.O. going for him was J6, which one would think would have been a deciding factor in a Dem primary) is fairly remarkable. Dunn coming up short may also indicate that J6 isn't exactly the "silver bullet" some Dems were hoping in primaries, and certainly isn't the case for many Rs who broke into the Capitol on January 6th either - as merely earning Trump's endorsement likely was never predicated on whether or not you were a Capitol rioter, but rather a combination of legislative experience, a conservative voting record, and mere platitudes about being "madly in love" with Trump.

As for Larry Hogan, I wouldn't exactly say that not crossing 60 percent is a dealbreaker for him, especially since the DSCC will have to really pull out all the stops to get Alsobrooks elected. White college educated voters along the Acela corridor think quite similarly regardless of which party's colors they wear on Election Day, and there will certainly be plenty of Hogan voters who otherwise will be voting for Biden. The big losers will be those Democrats in states like Texas and Florida who now will have to plead their case for help from Washington or spend bigly on polling to justify the case that their races aren't "lost causes", as the Dems are already having to play catch-up given the GOP is all but guaranteed to win Manchin's seat the moment 7:30 p.m. approaches on November the 5th in West Virginia.

Hogan will not be competitive. Democrats shouldn’t spend any resources here.

[Nyvin]

As for Larry Hogan, I wouldn't exactly say that not crossing 60 percent is a dealbreaker for him, especially since the DSCC will have to really pull out all the stops to get Alsobrooks elected. White college educated voters along the Acela corridor think quite similarly regardless of which party's colors they wear on Election Day, and there will certainly be plenty of Hogan voters who otherwise will be voting for Biden. The big losers will be those Democrats in states like Texas and Florida who now will have to plead their case for help from Washington or spend bigly on polling to justify the case that their races aren't "lost causes", as the Dems are already having to play catch-up given the GOP is all but guaranteed to win Manchin's seat the moment 7:30 p.m. approaches on November the 5th in West Virginia.

No, Alsobrooks is going to win MD very easily and Hogan will barely register as a footnote on election night.   

Also money isn't a problem for Democrats this cycle at all, they're outspending Republicans literally everywhere except maybe Ohio.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WV AG D: Toriseva
WV-1 D:  Reed

Uncalled:

NE-3 D

[Holmes]

I am deeply obsessed with WV’s AG D primary map.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Pollsters can’t poll black voters accurately

[Yoda]

I didn't really have a dog in the MD-Sen primary, but I'm glad Alsobrooks won. Trone just seemed like a rich dude who wanted to buy his way into one of the world's most exclusive clubs. If trump gets back in office(God forbid), we're going to desperately need real Democrats in Congress to oppose his radical fascist agenda. Also, it's kinda weird that neither of the Senators from Maryland are black. I rooted for Donna Edwards when she ran against Van Hollen. I thought it made a lot more sense for Van Hollen to stay in the House and build seniority and for a young, fierce progressive like Edwards to represent such a blue state.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NE-3 D: Ebers

[DrScholl]

Hogan only getting 61% is a factor in this because it shows he has issues with Trump's base even if he is marketed as electable. Had a serious conservative mounted a challenge it's possible that Hogan would have lost this primary.

[Yoda]

So glad Alsobrooks seems to be winning. I'm glad being rich can't buy you a Senate seat and Alsobrooks seems like a genuinely good person. This and Kim in NJ will be huge wins for the Senate.

And don't forget how much of an upgrade Gallego will be. Democrats are going to have a much better caucus next Congress, even if they end up being in the minority.

[politicallefty]

I am perfectly fine Senator Alsobrooks but the only drawback to her winning is Democrats will have to invest in her campaign. So be it, put me down $20.

I don't think that'll really be an issue. I think what's more important is that Alsobrooks seems like the kind of candidate that's ready and willing to put in the time and effort to win, as opposed to Trone that likely would've just bombarded the airwaves relentlessly without much else. Ads are obviously important, but they're not everything.

[Oryxslayer]

Bacon in NE-02 last night ended up winning with 62%, by far the lowest amount for the incumbent Nebraska delegation.  He like Hogan was fortunate that the radical (backed by the crazy state party) didn't have much of anything besides his positioning.  Cause the results suggest a serious challenger from the right in both circumstances may have won.

[Talleyrand]

I didn't really have a dog in the MD-Sen primary, but I'm glad Alsobrooks won. Trone just seemed like a rich dude who wanted to buy his way into one of the world's most exclusive clubs. If trump gets back in office(God forbid), we're going to desperately need real Democrats in Congress to oppose his radical fascist agenda. Also, it's kinda weird that neither of the Senators from Maryland are black. I rooted for Donna Edwards when she ran against Van Hollen. I thought it made a lot more sense for Van Hollen to stay in the House and build seniority and for a young, fierce progressive like Edwards to represent such a blue state.

Edwards was older than Van Hollen and not as progressive as people oft-believe.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I feel good that Angela Alsobrooks win another blk person is gonna be in the S

[Atlas Force]

I am perfectly fine Senator Alsobrooks but the only drawback to her winning is Democrats will have to invest in her campaign. So be it, put me down $20.

I don't think that'll really be an issue. I think what's more important is that Alsobrooks seems like the kind of candidate that's ready and willing to put in the time and effort to win, as opposed to Trone that likely would've just bombarded the airwaves relentlessly without much else. Ads are obviously important, but they're not everything.

In general candidates who are not filthy rich self-funders have to actually make the effort to campaign and make connections with voters as opposed to just throwing money at everything.

[Atlas Force]

Also Steny Hoyer only has 70.6% of the vote in his primary.

[Oryxslayer]

Also Steny Hoyer only has 70.6% of the vote in his primary.

Throw it onto the pile of previous evidence that once Hoyer retires he's going to be replaced by an African-American.

[Tintrlvr]

I am perfectly fine Senator Alsobrooks but the only drawback to her winning is Democrats will have to invest in her campaign. So be it, put me down $20.

I don't think that'll really be an issue. I think what's more important is that Alsobrooks seems like the kind of candidate that's ready and willing to put in the time and effort to win, as opposed to Trone that likely would've just bombarded the airwaves relentlessly without much else. Ads are obviously important, but they're not everything.

In general candidates who are not filthy rich self-funders have to actually make the effort to campaign and make connections with voters as opposed to just throwing money at everything.

I mean, Alsobrooks and the Maryland Democratic Party have to campaign. The national Democrats can safely ignore the race.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I am perfectly fine Senator Alsobrooks but the only drawback to her winning is Democrats will have to invest in her campaign. So be it, put me down $20.

I don't think that'll really be an issue. I think what's more important is that Alsobrooks seems like the kind of candidate that's ready and willing to put in the time and effort to win, as opposed to Trone that likely would've just bombarded the airwaves relentlessly without much else. Ads are obviously important, but they're not everything.

In general candidates who are not filthy rich self-funders have to actually make the effort to campaign and make connections with voters as opposed to just throwing money at everything.

I mean, Alsobrooks and the Maryland Democratic Party have to campaign. The national Democrats can safely ignore the race.

That's fair.

Still, I'm already declaring Hogan, "Larry Lingle."

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Logan, Mingo, y'all okay up there?

It's just a protest vote.. although I wish the protest vote would not be for scum like Blankenship.

FYI I voted on the repub side for Justice.

Jim Justice is just as scummy and as corrupt as Don Blankenship.

[wbrocks67]

There's no reason, however, why no VBM has been counted today and it's nearly 6pm est