France 2012: the official thread

[Peter the Lefty]

I doubt that someone like Le Pen would ever be able to get anywhere near 23% in the US...

Islamophobia is very widespread in America, though it would be difficult for her here.  Even if our corrupt and stubborn two-party system could be broken, Marine's version of the FN would have a difficult time, as the far-right would be alienated by her liberal stances on gay rights, abortion, secularism, and divorce, not to mention her left-wing economic positions.  However, if Bruno Gollnisch were to run here (assuming he could break the two-party system, or win the Republican nomination), he would have a good chance of perhaps 30% of the vote or more.  America is so screwed up, it's embarrassing. 

[Peter the Lefty]

I wish DSK would just say whether he's running or not already, as this will-he-or-won't-he speculation is making his poll numbers fall. 

[Peter the Lefty]

Thank you Fab, I'm glad to see we are in agreement there.

You're welcome.
I respect men and women, whatever their opinions (though I have some exceptions, like Panzergirl and though I must acknowledge it's difficult for me to have great consideration for Besancenot, Bayrou, Hamon and Villepin ).

What I feel very badly is the media and Internet curée... It's just disgusting.
And even if it's true, why not wait for some sounder pieces of facts ?

I'm surprised that the first comments are only in 2 categories:
- DSK is sexually obsessed (Panzergirl, Bernard Debré, the Internet mob)
- it's a conspiracy (Boutin, Le Guen, some socialists rank-and-file).
Why not consider an attempt by one person to have some celebrity ?
This is what I think most likely (though not certain at all, don't make me say what I haven't said).

No one in New York knows who DSK is well enough to think that accusing him of rape would get them celebrity.

It seems that medias from all over the world, including the US, have big titles on this.

Doesn't mean anyone knew who he was beforehand--certainly not anyone who isn't involved in international law/finance/journalism (like a hotel worker). It's just a juicy story. Also, had he been arrested in, say, Moscow, the American media would barely care at all.

Well, if DSK is out, is Hollande the next obvious front-runner?

[Peter the Lefty]

Are Hollande, Aubry, and Royal the only PS candidates?  Could Bertrand Delanoë run? 

[Peter the Lefty]

Any recent polls for the parliamentary elections next year?  And who is likely to be Hollande's PM should the Socialists get a majority?

[Peter the Lefty]

The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.

Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 

[Peter the Lefty]

Ah, another bounce in the polls for Sarko...only to fade away, like last time, probably (hopefully).

[Peter the Lefty]

I'm sure the fact that France just lost its AAA credit rating will give Hollande some momentum back.  I hope to God, that is. 

[Peter the Lefty]

...Montebourg for PM though ofc

If you're being serious I must say it's always very enjoyable to see how comments from abroad can be exotic.

I was joking

How about for finance minister? And no, that's not a joke.  Though it would probably be a great way to PO Merkel, Lagarde, and the banks.

[Peter the Lefty]

Why do I think Hollande's laughable attempt to poach FN voters with that "intern the Roma" crap will backfire horribly on him?

Why does Hollande think he needs to poach FN voters? Can't the FN doing very well in the first round only benefit him?

What is this thing he wants to do? I read about it, but the only article I could find about it was on the World Socialist Website (which is, for anyone who doesn't know, a Trotskyist lunatic site) which called him a nazi and gave only a few parts of his quote with many groups of three dots throughout.   I don't think I can trust half of the stuff the article said about him.  What did he say, exactly?

[Peter the Lefty]

New poll from TNS:
First round:
Hollande: 30,00
Sarkozy: 26,00
Le Pen: 16,00
Bayrou: 11,50
Melenchon: 10,00
Joly: 3,00
Villepin: 1,00
Arthaud: 0,50
Poutou: 0,50

Second round
Hollande: 58,00
Sarkozy: 42,00

Thank god, Sarkozy's bounce appears to have been a brief phenomenon.  Hopefully.  Please, France don't screw this up.  Just please keep these numbers like this just for 3 more months, please! 

[Peter the Lefty]

Damn, I'm getting really nervous now. 

[Peter the Lefty]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.

Yup, that is why Le Pen and Melenchon are the only true alternatives, and Melenchon is the only left-wing alternative. Sarkozy and Hollande are separated only by cosmetic differences, for most intents and purposes. The primary benefit of a Hollande victory for the left-wing would be to show that they can actually win somewhere significant. There is no real benefit for the right-wing except to further demoralize the European left; they would probably be better off in the opposition anyhow.

I sort've agree. This one "one voice, one solution, ignore everything else" mentality of the big EU governments is doing none of us any good. I want to see Hollande elected for various reasons, but the most pressing reason now is so as to get more voices round the table.

European leftist have surely their fair share of repsonsibility, for utterly giving up to the neoliberal right in the past two decades. However, while I don't know if the European left will save Europe, what I know for sure is that with the European right, Europe is screwed. Hollande might not be what we need today, but it's the only realistic possibility we have to avoid the worse.

(of course, Hollande alose is useless, so we have to pray for Italy and Germany as well, in 2013).

Lest we forget the UK in 2015.

Wtf?  Not unless Labour dumps Miliband in favor of someone better, and I can't even think of anyone at this point.  If they switch to his brother, it'll be of no difference whether or not they win, because he's a neoliberal warmongering Blairite who's hardly any different from Cameron.  Harriet Harperson definitely won't be able to win.  Neither will Sadiq Khan, Douglas Alexander, Yvette Cooper or any other non-Blairite. And I could almost even classify Ed Balls as Blairite at this point because of his endorsement of austerity.  Same with Ed Miliband.  They won't win until 2020, and if Scotland seceeds, maybe later.  It won't be until the next generation that a Labour victory will be both possible and meaningful at all.  And frankly, Chukah Umunna has been disappointing me tons lately by saying that he doesn't care about bankers getting huge bonuses.  Rachel Reeves has too by letting Ed Miliband and Ed Balls usurp her. 

[Peter the Lefty]

Wtf?  Not unless Labour dumps Miliband in favor of someone better, and I can't even think of anyone at this point.  If they switch to his brother, it'll be of no difference whether or not they win, because he's a neoliberal warmongering Blairite who's hardly any different from Cameron.  Harriet Harperson definitely won't be able to win.  Neither will Sadiq Khan, Douglas Alexander, Yvette Cooper or any other non-Blairite. And I could almost even classify Ed Balls as Blairite at this point because of his endorsement of austerity.  Same with Ed Miliband.  They won't win until 2020, and if Scotland seceeds, maybe latHer.  It won't be until the next generation that a Labour victory will be both possible and meaningful at all.  And frankly, Chukah Umunna has been disappointing me tons lately by saying that he doesn't care about bankers getting huge bonuses.  Rachel Reeves has too by letting Ed Miliband and Ed Balls usurp her. 
[/quote]

Ok.
[/quote]
Sorry I ranted.  I have a bad habit of that lol...it's just...I'm really sickened by how right-wing the Labour Party has become.  And the next generation looked promising, but they've been brainwashed by their elders.  And honestly, I also have a really hard time seeing Miliband beat Cameron in the next election, not only because their policies are almost identical, but he's also a laughing stock. 

[Peter the Lefty]

Omg I'm getting really nervous now actually.  One question: is the Front de Gauche staying together for the parliamentary elections, or are the individual parties in it competing independently?