UK local by-elections 2013

[MaxQue]

Well, to be fair, he really looks wierd. Something doesn't look right in his face.

[Leftbehind]

The Tory vote has collapsed since the legalization of gay marriage.  Not held a ward since and with large declines in every ward. (discounting Dorset for obvious reasons) UKIP actually winning now.

I hardly think you can put this down to gay marriage: there's been a long-term trend starting over a year ago, and collapses in the Tory vote seen in a long list of by-elections (Corby, Middlesbrough, Rotherham  - even as far back as Barnsley Central). These have undoubtedly gained much attention (especially since UKIP are the press' favourites) for the party, and encouraged others to defect: with things coming to a head in Eastleigh, where they came close seconds and naturally it got noticed. If they could nearly win a parliamentary by-election, then they could certainly win a local by-election and that's liberated those who wish to vote for them to do so. I think FPTP's effect on voter mentality often goes criminally underlooked.

See here for UKPR's take on gay marriage's lack of salience in voters minds.

[countydurhamboy]

The Tory vote has collapsed since the legalization of gay marriage.  Not held a ward since and with large declines in every ward. (discounting Dorset for obvious reasons) UKIP actually winning now.

I hardly think you can put this down to gay marriage: there's been a long-term trend starting over a year ago, and collapses in the Tory vote seen in a long list of by-elections (Corby, Middlesbrough, Rotherham  - even as far back as Barnsley Central). These have undoubtedly gained much attention (especially since UKIP are the press' favourites) for the party, and encouraged others to defect: with things coming to a head in Eastleigh, where they came close seconds and naturally it got noticed. If they could nearly win a parliamentary by-election, then they could certainly win a local by-election and that's liberated those who wish to vote for them to do so. I think FPTP's effect on voter mentality often goes criminally underlooked.

See here for UKPR's take on gay marriage's lack of salience in voters minds.

While I agree that the UKIP surge has other underlying causes,  I still think Gay marriage is responsible for the Tories post January poll downturn. I think it was the last straw for many unhappy Tory voters. Not only were they strongly against equal rights, but Cameron looked out of touch for raising the issue at this time. Meanwhile the reaction of Tory right put off many Gays and anecdotally It's amazing just how many gays vote Tory! To all voters Cameron looked weak and the party very divided, now add in the Eastleigh result and viola, there's your UKIP surge.
Just at look at the poll at the bottom of your link, UKIP were on 8%. There has been a general increase in the last 2 months from high single digits to low-mid teens with reputable polls now having them as high as 17%.

And don't assume the voters will return as well; Many of their voters, and I think some of their MP's don't see any difference between Cameron and Milliband, and probably wouldn't mind a Labour victory, if they get a Paterson led party post 2015!
Don't overestimate FPTP, i'm sure one Mr Foot thought there was no way all those SDP voters would split the left vote and let Thatcher back in....

[ObserverIE]

Tendring, Harwich West

Lab 34.9 (-4.7)
Con 27.2 (-11.7)
Comm Rep 20.2 (+10.0)
Lib Dem 17.7 (+17.7)

Lewisham, Evelyn

Lab 54.3 (+4.7)
PBP 23.9 (+15.2)
Lib Dem 7.7 (-7.9)
Con 7.0 (-5.7)
UKIP 7.0 (+7.0)

Fenland, Parson Drove and Wisbech St Mary

Con 44.1 (-2.5)
Lib Dem 27.6 (-6.3)
UKIP 24.6 (+24.6)
Eng Dem 3.8 (+3.8)

[Leftbehind]

Impressive result for PBP there. Not sure why the Greens didn't stand, or why there wasn't a Labour candidate in Fenland. Tendring result looks pretty underwhelming for Labour, but not as bad as a couple of last week's performances.

[joevsimp]

are people before profit the ex-millies SPEW who had cllrs in telegraph hill until recently? I thought that they'd joins TUSC


anyway, good result for them, Evelyn is right at the north end of Deptford and not somewhere the greens have ever seriously targeted. still seems odd not to have put up a candidate though

[Leftbehind]

Nah, they're a different party (SPEW have joined TUSC).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's not another SWP ('rape is fine when committed by a senior comrade, comrades') front is it?

[afleitch]

The reason for the Tory decline is that they are perceived as too right wing.  It's wrong to assume that UKIP are a care home for old Tories; we know from polling of their supporters that they are disillusioned voters in general; the same type of voter that periodically inflated the Lib Dem vote share in polling prior to 2010. Much of the Tory decline has stemmed from last years budget; prior to that they had been doing rather well for a party in government. Their downward trend escalated when they promised a referendum followed by their public split on gay marriage.

The Telegraph had a poll about how people would vote if Boris Johnson was leader. Labour and the Tories both got 37%. Tory voters backed Cameron over Boris 58-29 but UKIP voters preferred Boris 51-21. It's not crusty old Tories that are abandoning the Tories; they never do, it's those they won back post '97.

[Leftbehind]

And don't assume the voters will return as well; Many of their voters, and I think some of their MP's don't see any difference between Cameron and Milliband, and probably wouldn't mind a Labour victory, if they get a Paterson led party post 2015!
Don't overestimate FPTP, i'm sure one Mr Foot thought there was no way all those SDP voters would split the left vote and let Thatcher back in....

Actually that was what I was getting at when I said Eastleigh had liberated their voters. It's only when voters are convinced a party stands a reasonable chance of being competitive they'll begin to jump ship in a meaningful number, and the well publicised UKIP rise (and indeed the SDP formation) encouraged that.

[ObserverIE]

Knowsley, St Michael's

Lab 85.7 (-7.1)
Lib Dem 8.7 (+1.5)
Con 5.6 (+5.6)

Knowsley, Prescot West

Lab 43.8 (-2.8)
Lib Dem 40.1 (+2.2)
TUSC 8.5 (-1.3)
Con 6.2 (+0.5)
Green 1.4 (+1.4)

Knowsley, Prescot East

Lab 57.9 (-5.8)
Lib Dem 36.9 (+3.9)
Con 5.3 (+2.0)

North East Lincolnshire, Humberston and New Waltham

UKIP 42.0 (+7.6)
Con 28.2 (-15.3)
Lab 18.0 (-3.1)
Lib Dem 11.9 (+11.9)

Wigan, Pemberton

Lab 57.4 (-22.7)
UKIP 23.9 (+23.9)
Community Action 10.7 (-1.0)
Con 4.7 (-3.5)
BNP 3.3 (+3.3)

Nottingham, Wollaton East and Lenton Abbey

Lab 52.9 (+9.6)
Lib Dem 31.0 (+1.6)
Con 9.8 (-14.5)
UKIP 6.3 (+3.3)

Nottingham, Bilborough

Lab 67.2 (+6.8)
UKIP 15.1 (+15.1)
Con 7.7 (-12.0)
Green 4.5 (+4.5)
Lib Dem 4.2 (-6.3)
Elvis Loves Pets 1.4 (+1.4)

[You kip if you want to...]

North East Lincolnshire, Humberston and New Waltham

UKIP 42.0 (+7.6)
Con 28.2 (-15.3)
Lab 18.0 (-3.1)
Lib Dem 11.9 (+11.9)

LOL.

[MaxQue]

North East Lincolnshire, Humberston and New Waltham

UKIP 42.0 (+7.6)
Con 28.2 (-15.3)
Lab 18.0 (-3.1)
Lib Dem 11.9 (+11.9)

LOL.

Well, UKIP almost won there in 2011, the upset would have been them losing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another utterly lousy set of results for the Tories. Potential for the County Council elections - which matter for them more than for other parties anyway - to turn into a total trainwreck is very real.

[You kip if you want to...]

That UKIP gain comes in Cleethorpes constituency, a Tory seat where UKIP already had one of their best results in 2010. UKIP will hand it to Labour in 2015.

[minionofmidas]

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WHAT!? NOOOOOOO!

[joevsimp]

why three at once in Knowsley? scandal?

[ObserverIE]

why three at once in Knowsley? scandal?

Elderly(ish) Labour councillors dropping off the perch.

[minionofmidas]

why three at once in Knowsley? scandal?

Elderly(ish) Labour councillors dropping off the perch.

Ritual Group Suicide being hushed up?

[ObserverIE]

why three at once in Knowsley? scandal?

Elderly(ish) Labour councillors dropping off the perch.

Ritual Group Suicide being hushed up?

65, 66 and 74. That's ancient by Merseyside standards.

[MaxQue]

why three at once in Knowsley? scandal?

Elderly(ish) Labour councillors dropping off the perch.

Ritual Group Suicide being hushed up?

Knowsley isn't quick to call by-elections, so a backlog happens (two of them happened in early January).

[ObserverIE]

Luton, Wigmore

Lib Dem 46.8 (+5.9)
Lab 24.6 (-0.5)
Con 13.4 (-10.1)
UKIP 11.0 (+0.4)
Ind 3.0
Green 1.3 (+1.3)

[ObserverIE]

Darlington, Lascelles

Lab 63.4 (-4.0)
Lib Dem 19.2 (+19.2)
Con 17.4 (-15.2)

Pembrokeshire, Burton

Ind Summons 43.8
Con 25.0
Lab 24.4
Ind Harvey 6.9

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A DC hold in Pembrokeshire, then. Credible result for Labour in that ward.

[You kip if you want to...]

What is it with Wales and local independents?