Sabato Rating Updates 7/31/14: Whats the matter with KS? (user search)
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  Sabato Rating Updates 7/31/14: Whats the matter with KS? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Sabato Rating Updates 7/31/14: Whats the matter with KS?  (Read 2269 times)
Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« on: July 31, 2014, 10:55:41 AM »
Hawaii is at least a Lean D.

Once and if Ige wins the Democratic primary against Abercrombie, I'm sure Ige will get some money to spend against Aiona.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2014, 04:29:48 PM »

RI won't be a pickup as Lincoln Chafee became a Democrat.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2014, 05:18:58 PM »
Quote from: Never on July 31, 2014, 05:14:11 PM
Hawaii should probably stay a tossup if Abercrombie is nominated on the Democratic side, but should be moved to Lean or Likely D if Ige wins.

Even if Abercrombie wins; it should be Lean D.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2014, 05:29:29 PM »
Quote from: Never on July 31, 2014, 05:23:45 PM
Quote from: Vega on July 31, 2014, 05:18:58 PM
Quote from: Never on July 31, 2014, 05:14:11 PM
Hawaii should probably stay a tossup if Abercrombie is nominated on the Democratic side, but should be moved to Lean or Likely D if Ige wins.

Even if Abercrombie wins; it should be Lean D.
Simply put, if I had to pick between Tossup and Lean D, I'd have to stick with Tossup. Abercrombie could very well win, but he will have to fight for it. Aiona definitely has an opening.

I'm not sure where Aiona stands fundraising wise; but I do know that Abercrombie has a sizable war chest compared to Ige.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2014, 05:49:26 PM »
Quote from: Never on July 31, 2014, 05:47:51 PM
Quote from: Vega on July 31, 2014, 05:29:29 PM
Quote from: Never on July 31, 2014, 05:23:45 PM
Quote from: Vega on July 31, 2014, 05:18:58 PM
Quote from: Never on July 31, 2014, 05:14:11 PM
Hawaii should probably stay a tossup if Abercrombie is nominated on the Democratic side, but should be moved to Lean or Likely D if Ige wins.

Even if Abercrombie wins; it should be Lean D.
Simply put, if I had to pick between Tossup and Lean D, I'd have to stick with Tossup. Abercrombie could very well win, but he will have to fight for it. Aiona definitely has an opening.

I'm not sure where Aiona stands fundraising wise; but I do know that Abercrombie has a sizable war chest compared to Ige.

I found this July 11 report from Hawaii News Now, and apparently Aiona raised $370K, while Abercrombie raised $4.3 million and Ige raised $321K. While Abercrombie has a significant advantage regarding money, Ige keeping the primary competitive shows me that fundraising is not everything in the Aloha State.

Indeed. Hawaii is one of those increasingly rare states where actually meeting people and shaking hands can win votes.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2014, 10:12:20 PM »
Whether or not a state has re-elected it's Governors in the past is irrelevant.

What is relevant is that the Democratic nominee is leading the incumbent Governor by 10+ points in recent polls.
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