UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

[parochial boy]

I didn't make up a totally laughable story of 70% Tory vote to Zero in a landslide Tory victory election but I recalled trends that were correct in the end.

But I didn't expect a Communist (btw, "Fascist" is the new code word for "not left") to understand the difference.

Please learn English, I was talking about a specific group of about 10 people that I know, as an example of a general trend that everyone basically knows is going on.

You exploded that into some massive strawman because you are self evidently not capable of behaving like an adult or of discerning  truth from fiction, and instead have to be some sort of parody of a low-intelligence hysterical fascist.

[SPQR]

Don't feed the troll, FFS.
I've put him in ignore list months ago yet I end up reading his posts because of all the people quoting him.

[Klartext89]

I didn't make up a totally laughable story of 70% Tory vote to Zero in a landslide Tory victory election but I recalled trends that were correct in the end.

But I didn't expect a Communist (btw, "Fascist" is the new code word for "not left") to understand the difference.

Please learn English, I was talking about a specific group of about 10 people that I know, as an example of a general trend that everyone basically knows is going on.

You exploded that into some massive strawman because you are self evidently not capable of behaving like an adult or of discerning  truth from fiction, and instead have to be some sort of parody of a low-intelligence hysterical fascist.

It's not a basic trend but keep on telling yourself that. And no need to learn English, would say it's close to perfection for a non-native speaker.

Thanks for all the amusement here.

Fascist Fascist Fascist - the new real Fascism will call itself the anti-fascism ;-)  Free speech and different opinions suck, don't they, little Commie? Unfortunately for you, the time of Gulag is over.

[Klartext89]

Don't feed the troll, FFS.
I've put him in ignore list months ago yet I end up reading his posts because of all the people quoting him.

Sorry, but I had to quote all the trolls here that they know I'm referring to them.

[Klartext89]

So. Dealt enough with all the left-wing trolls here, to go back to topic:

Twitter talk of most UK journalists is about a Tory majority in the Region of 100 seats. Would be huge and of couse the worst Labour result since ages.

[136or142]

Sporting Index markets has around

CON         361.5
CON         206.5
LIB            12
SNP           46
PC               3.5
Greens        1
UKIP            0.5

I'd hate to be one of the 0.5 of a politician!  Do they chop off vertically or horizontally?

[jaichind]

Sporting Index markets has around

CON         361.5
CON         206.5
LIB            12
SNP           46
PC               3.5
Greens        1
UKIP            0.5

I'd hate to be one of the 0.5 of a politician!  Do they chop off vertically or horizontally?

They have it in Bid/Ask format so I took the mid between Bid/Ask. 

[jaichind]

Most of the prediction and betting sites seems to be covering toward 360 seats for CON.

[jaichind]

I read on some other discussion site someone pointing out that the CON posters look Maoist

[cp]

I'd hate to be one of the 0.5 of a politician!  Do they chop off vertically or horizontally?

Actually, they use the D'Hondt method to divide him/her up into small portions that are added to every other member of Parliament.

[mvd10]

I guess something like 325 seats for the Tories would be the best result. It would prevent a Labour government but it would also make sure May's kind of conservatism doesn't take over the Tories. In the best case May would be out before 2018, but I'm afraid the only way to get rid of May anytime soon is her losing the election which would be even worse.

[BL53931]

This may have been addressed but I haven't seen it.

CSPAN usually carries a feed of the BBC election night coverage. In checking their online schedule for this evening it appears it is all 'Comey'.  Rebroadcasts of the hearings all evening.

It appears Sky News may be the only source I have for coverage this evening.

[the506]

The BBC usually has a stream that isn't geoblocked.

If you have digital cable, you probably get BBC World too.

[BL53931]

I can stream SkyNews through my Playstation, last time their coverage was better anyway.  BBC world isn't included in my cable package but can if necessary watch on my laptop, not my preference though.

[Zinneke]

Truth hurts, I know. Hopefully you're not too triggered when attending your local AntiFa Clown Meeting tonight.

well that's an odd way to describe my cricket training;

Playing cricket here or in UK? I'm surprised you managed to find somewhere if its the former.

Anyway,, I thought that while we pass the time the brits could predict where the marginals are going to go. Here are what Sky have classified as marginals. I imagine you have to add Belfast South and East for NI, any others there?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I imagine we will see a few surprise big swings if turnout amongst youth or previously disgruntled voters is high for Corbyn, or even May's brand of conservatism (as opposed to Cameron).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Final Lord Ashcroft projection has Tories gaining 33 seats and SNP losing 12. Strangely enough, they have Caroline Lucas losing her seat which I don't see happening.

https://twitter.com/mike_blackley/status/872823717725970432

[IceAgeComing]

Playing cricket here or in UK? I'm surprised you managed to find somewhere if its the former.

Nah in Scotland: although there is a club in Brussels that I would join if I was ever working there over the summer.  Actually came across a South Asian family playing a game in Parc Cinquantinaire last November which was interesting...

[jaichind]

Sporting Index markets is now around

CON         359.5
CON         208.5
LIB            12
SNP           46
PC               3.5
Greens        1
UKIP            0.5

Moving toward LAB from CON

Predictit around 360 for CON.

[Hnv1]

This long wait is a ghastly affair, go on Sunderland South bring on the results

[jaichind]

This long wait is a ghastly affair, go on Sunderland South bring on the results

Well, given the track record of exit polls in 2010 and 2015 I am eagerly awaiting the exit polls at 10pm.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not likely to be posting much on the night if at all and perhaps not even after (explain why here), but here's something to keep in mind for you all...

Contrary to popular belief - and guess who is responsible for maintaining this! - the people running the campaigns in each constituency (and therefore the national campaigns) don't really know (and never do) exactly what is going on. The necessary data is is not collected - canvassing data is a much weirder thing than is widely assumed - and would be impossible to collate anyway. What they have are general impressions, and while these can be accurate they can also be extremely wrong. At the last GE I helped out in a seat that was lost by what turned out to be a rather large margin and on a much worse swing than the national average; on the day the people running the campaign very clearly believed they were slightly ahead. One issue is that local campaigns are very much based on a GOTV principle but in a General Election most of the people voting do so totally independently of the exhortations of rosette-festooned activists.

Or to cut an overlong post short: even the parties themselves won't know what has happened until 10pm, same as everyone else. Because it is also not the case that private polling for parties is any more accurate than published polling for newspapers.

A related point is that early rumours from the various counts are very often wrong. Often they start spreading around even before boxes are opened...

Finally, the implied the swings from all the pollsters...

BMG: -3.0
ICM: -2.5
ComRes: -1.5
Ipsos-MORI: -0.5
Panelbase: -0.5
YouGov: 0.0
Opinium: 0.0
Kantar: +0.5
SurveyMonkey: +1.5
Survation: +3.0
Qriously: +5.0

_{Qriously may be voodoo thus italics.}

[Zinneke]

Not likely to be posting much on the night if at all and perhaps not even after (explain why here), but here's something to keep in mind for you all...

Contrary to popular belief - and guess who is responsible for maintaining this! - the people running the campaigns in each constituency (and therefore the national campaigns) don't really know (and never do) exactly what is going on. The necessary data is is not collected - canvassing data is a much weirder thing than is widely assumed - and would be impossible to collate anyway. What they have are general impressions, and while these can be accurate they can also be extremely wrong. At the last GE I helped out in a seat that was lost by what turned out to be a rather large margin and on a much worse swing than the national average; on the day the people running the campaign very clearly believed they were slightly ahead. One issue is that local campaigns are very much based on a GOTV principle but in a General Election most of the people voting do so totally independently of the exhortations of rosette-festooned activists.

Or to cut an overlong post short: even the parties themselves won't know what has happened until 10pm, same as everyone else. Because it is also not the case that private polling for parties is any more accurate than published polling for newspapers.

A related point is that early rumours from the various counts are very often wrong. Often they start spreading around even before boxes are opened...

Finally, the implied the swings from all the pollsters...

BMG: -3.0
ICM: -2.5
ComRes: -1.5
Ipsos-MORI: -0.5
Panelbase: -0.5
YouGov: 0.0
Opinium: 0.0
Kantar: +0.5
SurveyMonkey: +1.5
Survation: +3.0
Qriously: +5.0

_{Qriously may be voodoo thus italics.}

So Cameron's targeting strategy (for example he targeted that LibDem safe seat of which name I forget) was not as clever as we thought then?

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Don't feed the troll, FFS.
I've put him in ignore list months ago yet I end up reading his posts because of all the people quoting him.

[Tintrlvr]

Not likely to be posting much on the night if at all and perhaps not even after (explain why here), but here's something to keep in mind for you all...

Contrary to popular belief - and guess who is responsible for maintaining this! - the people running the campaigns in each constituency (and therefore the national campaigns) don't really know (and never do) exactly what is going on. The necessary data is is not collected - canvassing data is a much weirder thing than is widely assumed - and would be impossible to collate anyway. What they have are general impressions, and while these can be accurate they can also be extremely wrong. At the last GE I helped out in a seat that was lost by what turned out to be a rather large margin and on a much worse swing than the national average; on the day the people running the campaign very clearly believed they were slightly ahead. One issue is that local campaigns are very much based on a GOTV principle but in a General Election most of the people voting do so totally independently of the exhortations of rosette-festooned activists.

Or to cut an overlong post short: even the parties themselves won't know what has happened until 10pm, same as everyone else. Because it is also not the case that private polling for parties is any more accurate than published polling for newspapers.

A related point is that early rumours from the various counts are very often wrong. Often they start spreading around even before boxes are opened...

Finally, the implied the swings from all the pollsters...

BMG: -3.0
ICM: -2.5
ComRes: -1.5
Ipsos-MORI: -0.5
Panelbase: -0.5
YouGov: 0.0
Opinium: 0.0
Kantar: +0.5
SurveyMonkey: +1.5
Survation: +3.0
Qriously: +5.0

_{Qriously may be voodoo thus italics.}

At least we don't have to worry about poll herding...

Sporting Index markets is now around

CON         359.5
CON         208.5
LIB            12
SNP           46
PC               3.5
Greens        1
UKIP            0.5

Moving toward LAB from CON

Predictit around 360 for CON.

Conservatives to win over 550 seats! Labour wiped out!

[Tender Branson]

A reporter for the German Phoenix channel said that turnout in London is lower than last time, in the precinct he visited.