RGA - Scott Walker elected vice chair
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  RGA - Scott Walker elected vice chair
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« on: November 23, 2015, 01:22:17 PM »

http://www.wgem.com/story/30565126/2015/11/19/gov-scott-walker-elected-as-vice-chair-of-republican-governors-association

LOL. Enjoy a couple extra losses next year, Republicans.
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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2015, 01:25:10 PM »

Three elections in four years!
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2015, 01:26:37 PM »


You are seriously underestimating Walker.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: November 23, 2015, 03:22:50 PM »


Yeah, I mean just look at how well he did this year! Oh wait...
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4 on: November 23, 2015, 07:14:37 PM »

LOL never change GOP
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2015, 02:12:34 AM »

Better than Illinois.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2015, 11:58:46 PM »


It'll be really hard to imagine how he will make Republicans lose races, especially next year when they are far more likely to gain than lose just by the map itself.
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Zioneer
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« Reply #7 on: November 28, 2015, 12:42:33 AM »


It'll be really hard to imagine how he will make Republicans lose races, especially next year when they are far more likely to gain than lose just by the map itself.

Yes, they're totally going to win more in a presidential year with several chances of having an unelectable presidential nominee dragging them down.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #8 on: November 28, 2015, 12:51:20 AM »


It'll be really hard to imagine how he will make Republicans lose races, especially next year when they are far more likely to gain than lose just by the map itself.

Yes, they're totally going to win more in a presidential year with several chances of having an unelectable presidential nominee dragging them down.

Well I mean look at the map:

West Virginia, Missouri, and Montana. All deep red states with outgoing Governors or moderate meh Governors. West Virginia is flipping Republican - Despite all the broohaha that this is going to be competitive, Bill Cole is not a complete flop and the state is moving so Republican that it won't matter how much money Jim Justice throws at this race. Missouri has a leaving unpopular Democratic Governor, and Republicans have a very strong up and comer in Eric Greitens, who will likely win the primary in my view. This is definitely more of a toss-up, but having the Republican win by 10 points or so on the Presidential ballot doesn't help Chris Koster. And Montana is probably the most toss-up of the three, with the incumbent being moderately popular/unpopular, but again, Republicans will win Montana big, that does not help Steve Daines.

There are some odd Democrat/Purple states where Republicans are competitive. New Hampshire has Chris Sununu running, who is definitely the favorite in this race. And Vermont has an odd history of supporting Republican Governors very recently - and Phil Scott fits the bill they have. I'd say odds are decently good both are won by Republicans.

Then we've got Republican weak zones - Indiana and North Carolina. Indiana's controversy will steadily go away, and when that's more in the rear view, the less chance John Gregg has against Mike Pence. Pence will underperform, guaranteed, but he will probably beat Gregg. If Republicans win North Carolina, I think Pat McCrory wins too. If Republicans lose it, McCrory loses as well. I think he lives by the sword, dies by the sword.

So yes, Republicans have a good chance of picking up seats in 2016.
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Zioneer
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« Reply #9 on: November 28, 2015, 04:02:40 PM »


It'll be really hard to imagine how he will make Republicans lose races, especially next year when they are far more likely to gain than lose just by the map itself.

Yes, they're totally going to win more in a presidential year with several chances of having an unelectable presidential nominee dragging them down.

Well I mean look at the map:

West Virginia, Missouri, and Montana. All deep red states with outgoing Governors or moderate meh Governors. West Virginia is flipping Republican - Despite all the broohaha that this is going to be competitive, Bill Cole is not a complete flop and the state is moving so Republican that it won't matter how much money Jim Justice throws at this race. Missouri has a leaving unpopular Democratic Governor, and Republicans have a very strong up and comer in Eric Greitens, who will likely win the primary in my view. This is definitely more of a toss-up, but having the Republican win by 10 points or so on the Presidential ballot doesn't help Chris Koster. And Montana is probably the most toss-up of the three, with the incumbent being moderately popular/unpopular, but again, Republicans will win Montana big, that does not help Steve Daines.

There are some odd Democrat/Purple states where Republicans are competitive. New Hampshire has Chris Sununu running, who is definitely the favorite in this race. And Vermont has an odd history of supporting Republican Governors very recently - and Phil Scott fits the bill they have. I'd say odds are decently good both are won by Republicans.

Then we've got Republican weak zones - Indiana and North Carolina. Indiana's controversy will steadily go away, and when that's more in the rear view, the less chance John Gregg has against Mike Pence. Pence will underperform, guaranteed, but he will probably beat Gregg. If Republicans win North Carolina, I think Pat McCrory wins too. If Republicans lose it, McCrory loses as well. I think he lives by the sword, dies by the sword.

So yes, Republicans have a good chance of picking up seats in 2016.

Point taken, I forgot which particular gubernatorial races were up this next year. I've heard Steve Bullock is popular enough in Montana to be the favorite coming in, but I do agree that West Virginia and Missouri are lost to the Democrats. New Hampshire seems to be slowly turning more Democratic, but I would agree that it's a relative toss-up. Vermont I think will stay with the Democrats despite having a strong GOP candidate.

Indiana I think is Republican-leaning, though Pence could potentially do something stupid and anger everyone all over again. Pence-leaning, at least. North Carolina is definitely a toss-up and will be decided by who wins the state in the presidential election, I agree with you.

North Dakota is safe GOP since Heidi Heitkamp isn't running, while Oregon is safe or at least lean Dem since Kitzhaber isn't on the ticket. Washington is similar to Oregon in that respect.

And Utah... Well, let's just say that the Utah Dems (myself included) don't even have a gubernatorial candidate yet. And we might not have any gubernatorial candidate whatsoever. It's not like we were going to win in any case (even if Jim Matheson were running), but it's frankly pathetic how bad our recruitment for statewide races is.
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