Hurricane season has begun... still no leader for FEMA or NOAA

[Blue3]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/02/us/noaa-fema-vacancy/index.html



So... why hasn't Trump even appointed someone here yet?

[Lachi]

It's ok...Kushner is on the job...after all he has a lot of experience blowing

LOL

[Crumpets]

"You're doing a heck of a job, nobody!"

[Doimper]

The botched response to Katrina was when the tide really began to turn against Bush. Trump better hope this hurricane season is a mild one.

[Drew]

As someone who holds a meteorology degree, I will likely be more qualified than whatever non-scientist is appointed to fill the NOAA slot.  And if Trump really does care so deeply about his core voters (most hurricane-prone states are Red), he'd get those positions filled yesterday by qualified individuals.  His approvals won't be pretty when a Category 5 slams the Gulf Coast and does mass devastation due in part to a hobbled FEMA/NOAA. 

[Ban my account ffs!]

The botched response to Katrina was when the tide really began to turn against Bush. Trump better hope this hurricane season is a mild one.

Some in the meteorological community are worried at the look of the weather patterns so far this year.  They bear a resemblance to other years when there were major hurricane strikes on the U.S.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

"Hurricanes are a hoax, we don't need a FEMA or NOAA leader for this obvoi" - next Trump tweet.

[Crumpets]

As someone who holds a meteorology degree, I will likely be more qualified than whatever non-scientist is appointed to fill the NOAA slot.  And if Trump really does care so deeply about his core voters (most hurricane-prone states are Red), he'd get those positions filled yesterday by qualified individuals.  His approvals won't be pretty when a Category 5 slams the Gulf Coast and does mass devastation due in part to a hobbled FEMA/NOAA. 

And yet somehow Louisiana swung to the Republicans between 2004 and 2008.

[Blue3]

As someone who holds a meteorology degree, I will likely be more qualified than whatever non-scientist is appointed to fill the NOAA slot.  And if Trump really does care so deeply about his core voters (most hurricane-prone states are Red), he'd get those positions filled yesterday by qualified individuals.  His approvals won't be pretty when a Category 5 slams the Gulf Coast and does mass devastation due in part to a hobbled FEMA/NOAA. 

And yet somehow Louisiana swung to the Republicans between 2004 and 2008.

Because many poor African-Americans either died or never returned after being relocated.

[Reaganfan]

The botched response to Katrina was when the tide really began to turn against Bush. Trump better hope this hurricane season is a mild one.

Some in the meteorological community are worried at the look of the weather patterns so far this year.  They bear a resemblance to other years when there were major hurricane strikes on the U.S.

A "Major Hurricane" is a Category 3, 4 or 5 storm.

The last major hurricanes hitting the U.S. were the following:

1992 - Andrew (Cat 5)
1995 - Opal (Cat 3)
1996 - Fran (Cat 3)
1999 - Bret (Cat 3, sparsely populated area of TX)
2004 - Charley (Cat 4)
2004 - Ivan (Cat 3)
2004 - Jeanne (Cat 3)
2005 - Dennis (Cat 3)
2005 - Katrina (Cat 3)
2005 - Rita (Cat 3)
2005 - Wilma (Cat 3)

We've gone an unprecedented 11 hurricane seasons without a major hurricane landfall in the U.S. It's unbelievable.

Plus, nowadays, run of the mill common storms like Isaac 2012 prompt CNN full-blown over-coverage and over-hype in the post-Katrina world.

[Badger]

The botched response to Katrina was when the tide really began to turn against Bush. Trump better hope this hurricane season is a mild one.

Some in the meteorological community are worried at the look of the weather patterns so far this year.  They bear a resemblance to other years when there were major hurricane strikes on the U.S.

A "Major Hurricane" is a Category 3, 4 or 5 storm.

The last major hurricanes hitting the U.S. were the following:

1992 - Andrew (Cat 5)
1995 - Opal (Cat 3)
1996 - Fran (Cat 3)
1999 - Bret (Cat 3, sparsely populated area of TX)
2004 - Charley (Cat 4)
2004 - Ivan (Cat 3)
2004 - Jeanne (Cat 3)
2005 - Dennis (Cat 3)
2005 - Katrina (Cat 3)
2005 - Rita (Cat 3)
2005 - Wilma (Cat 3)

We've gone an unprecedented 11 hurricane seasons without a major hurricane landfall in the U.S. It's unbelievable.

Plus, nowadays, run of the mill common storms like Isaac 2012 prompt CNN full-blown over-coverage and over-hype in the post-Katrina world.

That's an unusually good point comma naso. Still, wouldn't you agree that even a category 2 storm can cause tremendous destruction and human hardship requiring leadership from FEMA and the NOAA?

Even more scary, since it is an unprecedented string of 11 straight hurricane Seasons without a cat 3 or higher storm, aren't we kind of pushing our luck here?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The botched response to Katrina was when the tide really began to turn against Bush. Trump better hope this hurricane season is a mild one.

Some in the meteorological community are worried at the look of the weather patterns so far this year.  They bear a resemblance to other years when there were major hurricane strikes on the U.S.

A "Major Hurricane" is a Category 3, 4 or 5 storm.

The last major hurricanes hitting the U.S. were the following:

1992 - Andrew (Cat 5)
1995 - Opal (Cat 3)
1996 - Fran (Cat 3)
1999 - Bret (Cat 3, sparsely populated area of TX)
2004 - Charley (Cat 4)
2004 - Ivan (Cat 3)
2004 - Jeanne (Cat 3)
2005 - Dennis (Cat 3)
2005 - Katrina (Cat 3)
2005 - Rita (Cat 3)
2005 - Wilma (Cat 3)

We've gone an unprecedented 11 hurricane seasons without a major hurricane landfall in the U.S. It's unbelievable.

Plus, nowadays, run of the mill common storms like Isaac 2012 prompt CNN full-blown over-coverage and over-hype in the post-Katrina world.

That's an unusually good point comma naso. Still, wouldn't you agree that even a category 2 storm can cause tremendous destruction and human hardship requiring leadership from FEMA and the NOAA?

Even more scary, since it is an unprecedented string of 11 straight hurricane Seasons without a cat 3 or higher storm, aren't we kind of pushing our luck here?

While there are larger trends that change thing up a little, the chances for a major hurricane hitting the US are basically the same every year. The idea that we're due for a major one (which I how I'm reading your question) is an example of gambler's fallacy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Another point to consider is that given how long it's been, the media will be in frenzy mode. This could help Trump if the storm isn't damaging, or if the government does respond well. On the flip side, a FEMA and public that haven't had a major storm in over a decade could be woefully unprepared, making the results worse even before any hype from the media.

(His actual contribution to the outcome will be ultimately irrelevant, unless he really puts his foot in his mouth. Which is quite possible with Trump.)

[pikachu]

The botched response to Katrina was when the tide really began to turn against Bush. Trump better hope this hurricane season is a mild one.

Some in the meteorological community are worried at the look of the weather patterns so far this year.  They bear a resemblance to other years when there were major hurricane strikes on the U.S.

A "Major Hurricane" is a Category 3, 4 or 5 storm.

The last major hurricanes hitting the U.S. were the following:

1992 - Andrew (Cat 5)
1995 - Opal (Cat 3)
1996 - Fran (Cat 3)
1999 - Bret (Cat 3, sparsely populated area of TX)
2004 - Charley (Cat 4)
2004 - Ivan (Cat 3)
2004 - Jeanne (Cat 3)
2005 - Dennis (Cat 3)
2005 - Katrina (Cat 3)
2005 - Rita (Cat 3)
2005 - Wilma (Cat 3)

We've gone an unprecedented 11 hurricane seasons without a major hurricane landfall in the U.S. It's unbelievable.

Plus, nowadays, run of the mill common storms like Isaac 2012 prompt CNN full-blown over-coverage and over-hype in the post-Katrina world.

That's an unusually good point comma naso. Still, wouldn't you agree that even a category 2 storm can cause tremendous destruction and human hardship requiring leadership from FEMA and the NOAA?

Even more scary, since it is an unprecedented string of 11 straight hurricane Seasons without a cat 3 or higher storm, aren't we kind of pushing our luck here?

It's worth remembering that Irene, Sandy and Ike were all very destructive, and that if it hits in the right place, a Cat 1 or 2 can end up being very expensive and lead a massive media blowup.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

Will a leader be appointed after Mar-a-Lago gets storm surged?

[Hammy]

On the matter of major hurricanes, there's a point I've made on another forum and I'll make here as well--a major hurricane is a statistical thing, and an inexact one at that--a 1-2 mph difference will make a difference (Ike and Gustav in 2008 were at 110, major is 111) while doing the same amount of damage.

That being said, one is going to hit sooner or later, and needless to say, the longer time that passes, the closer we are to whenever that time comes, and this is the worst thing Trump needs to be slacking on.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

As someone who holds a meteorology degree, I will likely be more qualified than whatever non-scientist is appointed to fill the NOAA slot.  And if Trump really does care so deeply about his core voters (most hurricane-prone states are Red), he'd get those positions filled yesterday by qualified individuals.  His approvals won't be pretty when a Category 5 slams the Gulf Coast and does mass devastation due in part to a hobbled FEMA/NOAA. 

And yet somehow Louisiana swung to the Republicans between 2004 and 2008.

"obama is a black, you see."

[Reaganfan]

On the matter of major hurricanes, there's a point I've made on another forum and I'll make here as well--a major hurricane is a statistical thing, and an inexact one at that--a 1-2 mph difference will make a difference (Ike and Gustav in 2008 were at 110, major is 111) while doing the same amount of damage.

That being said, one is going to hit sooner or later, and needless to say, the longer time that passes, the closer we are to whenever that time comes, and this is the worst thing Trump needs to be slacking on.

True. Gustav and Ike in 2008 were ALMOST major landfalls, and Irene in 2011 was a Cat 3 in the Bahamas and was anticipated to strike NC as a major, but weakened to a Cat 1 by landfall. Hurricane Matthew last year also made landfall in SC as a Cat 2 but had the track been 50 miles further west, it would have come ashore in FL as a Cat 4 major storm.

My biggest concern for the U.S. are Cat 4 storms for the East Coast of Florida. They were pounded in '26, '28, '45, '47, '48, '49 and King in 1950 were all Cat 4 storms.

The last Cat 4 or 5 hurricanes, the genuinely epic terrifying wind speeds were:

1969 - Camille - Mississippi (Cat 5)
1970 - Celia - Texas (Cat 3 officially, will likely be upgraded to Cat 4 in re-analysis)
1989 - Hugo - South Carolina (Cat 4)
1992 - Andrew - Florida (Cat 5)
2004 - Charley - Florida (Cat 4)

Quite rare, but still...it will happen again. Note: All five of those storms, except "Hugo '89" were August hurricanes.

[Ban my account ffs!]

The botched response to Katrina was when the tide really began to turn against Bush. Trump better hope this hurricane season is a mild one.

Some in the meteorological community are worried at the look of the weather patterns so far this year.  They bear a resemblance to other years when there were major hurricane strikes on the U.S.

A "Major Hurricane" is a Category 3, 4 or 5 storm.

The last major hurricanes hitting the U.S. were the following:

1992 - Andrew (Cat 5)
1995 - Opal (Cat 3)
1996 - Fran (Cat 3)
1999 - Bret (Cat 3, sparsely populated area of TX)
2004 - Charley (Cat 4)
2004 - Ivan (Cat 3)
2004 - Jeanne (Cat 3)
2005 - Dennis (Cat 3)
2005 - Katrina (Cat 3)
2005 - Rita (Cat 3)
2005 - Wilma (Cat 3)

We've gone an unprecedented 11 hurricane seasons without a major hurricane landfall in the U.S. It's unbelievable.

Plus, nowadays, run of the mill common storms like Isaac 2012 prompt CNN full-blown over-coverage and over-hype in the post-Katrina world.

That's an unusually good point comma naso. Still, wouldn't you agree that even a category 2 storm can cause tremendous destruction and human hardship requiring leadership from FEMA and the NOAA?

Even more scary, since it is an unprecedented string of 11 straight hurricane Seasons without a cat 3 or higher storm, aren't we kind of pushing our luck here?

While there are larger trends that change thing up a little, the chances for a major hurricane hitting the US are basically the same every year. The idea that we're due for a major one (which I how I'm reading your question) is an example of gambler's fallacy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Another point to consider is that given how long it's been, the media will be in frenzy mode. This could help Trump if the storm isn't damaging, or if the government does respond well. On the flip side, a FEMA and public that haven't had a major storm in over a decade could be woefully unprepared, making the results worse even before any hype from the media.

(His actual contribution to the outcome will be ultimately irrelevant, unless he really puts his foot in his mouth. Which is quite possible with Trump.)

Statistics don't work like this with tropical storm formation.  There isn't "the same chance year after year"... the chance of tropical storm formation increases substantially, for example, when the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is in its positive phase which it entered around 1995 and peaked around 2010.

Papers have shown that tropical storm landfalls in the southeast U.S. increase or decrease substantially based on the mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which has a pretty well proven link to solar activity. 

Then the Pacific ocean has a big impact too... when we have El Nino conditions, westerly winds in the upper troposphere pick up and rip the tops off of thunderstorms in the Caribbean and across the Atlantic basin, hindering storm formation.  During La Nina conditions, those winds slow down.  SOmetimes so much so that storms don't curve up towards the U.S. but instead just plow westward into central America... sometimes crossing into the Pacific and becoming a storm over there.

Bringing up the gamblers fallacy was just ridiculous.  Naso knows more about this subject than you do.  Just accept that and move on.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

That's an unusually good point comma naso. Still, wouldn't you agree that even a category 2 storm can cause tremendous destruction and human hardship requiring leadership from FEMA and the NOAA?

Here's a storm that peaked at 60 mph that wasn't even a tropical storm any more when it caused a lot of damage around Binghamton, NY.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Lee_(2011)