Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET)

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

They are not alphabetical as I showed on AAD. Trump's delegate Wike III is listed 2nd on the ballot across district 7 (4th alphabetically)

Though on my machine, it might appear 3rd if you read left to right instead of top to bottom and then the second column. Likely inconsistent across the counties.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Pat Toomey voted for Cruz
http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pat-toomey-votes-for-ted-cruz-20160426-story.html

Good heavens, now I really have to hope Sestak wins. What a loser.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

If the above list is indeed anti-Trump, Trump's ceiling has already been lowered by 3. All 3 delegates from the 14th district have already been picked, and are all on the #NeverTrump list.

They might be on the #NeverTrump list because there's no one else to vote for in the 14th?

No, those are actually Never Trump, but in all likelihood, that will be Trump's worst district, so it's OK.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Nate Cohn's model only shows Trump slightly losing 5 districts today: MD-7, MD-8, PA-2, PA-4, and PA-16.

Past results would suggest Trumps should win PA-02 and MD-07 (both are only about 1/3 white), while I think the gerrymander could save Trump in MD-08, but that could be the closest one in MD. PA-04 and PA-16 make sense for Cruz.

I'm going with Trump only losing 2 districts.

Yeah, I'm really not sure I see Trump losing the 2nd. It's almost certainly his worst of the three Philadelphia districts, but I have seen people open carrying in the 'suburban' part of the district. It's rich, but it's also a mishmosh of classes. This strikes me as Trump-land. The 4th also should go for Trump imo. I didn't have Trump losing the 16th, but I guess I could see why Cruz would do well as opposed to the other 2 in the model. I'm not sure why it's much worse than 7th though. I think the gerrymander is screwing with people or something.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Yet, here are the 6 Lyin' Delegates:

Michelle Harris Kichline (PA-06)
Joan Miller (PA-07)
Michael Puppio (PA-07)
Robert Willert (PA-07)
Shannon Oscar (PA-13)
David Dumeyer (PA-16)

Wow, glad I didn't let Puppio trap me with the (possibly) Italian last name. I just voted for the two Trump delegates instead of any DW. Despicable.

Pat Toomey voted for Cruz
http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pat-toomey-votes-for-ted-cruz-20160426-story.html

Good heavens, now I really have to hope Sestak wins. What a loser.

They actually say McGinty has a good shot at winning the Dem primary.

Yep, I'm definitely aware. She has to be the favorite, which would push me right back to Toomey sadly.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I didn't say McGinty can't win. I just said I would never vote for her.

Why are people so sure about Trump winning Costello and Meehan's districts?

Interestingly both Meehan and his primary opponent have tried to tie themselves to Trump, so maybe you are on to something, but this is very much prime Kasich territory. If the far west #NeverTrump parts of the district vote for Cruz, then maybe it will be divided, but my expectation is Kasich by 4-5.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

PA GOP exit: If XXX is the nominee...

Trump
Definitely vote for: 56%
Probably vote for: 20
Not vote for: 22

Cruz
Def 25%
Prob 36%
Not 37%

I have never been prouder of a poll then I am of this one! #NeverCruz

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The northeast is the only part of America that is real. Noteworthy that Trump wins all 13 colonies! Real America.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The northeast is the only part of America that is real. Noteworthy that Trump wins all 13 colonies! Real America.

He wouldn't have won NC, SC, VA, or GA if they voted with only one of Rubio/Cruz.

And, those states are all significantly less relevant than the Providence--Baltimore route. (I exclude Boston on account of our grudge, but they did their job well)