Louisiana Gubernatorial Primary - 20 October 2007

[Sam Spade]

Jindal 53%
Boasso 19%
Campbell 12%
Georges 11%
Other 5%

If Jindal were to pull over 55%, Landrieu should really watch out, imho.

[Sam Spade]

Glad to see my prediction here pretty much nailed it. 

[Sam Spade]

Precincts still out:

Bossier - 22
East Baton Rouge - 1
Iberia - 11
Jefferson - 3
Madison - 1
Orleans - 37
St. Tammany - 88
Terrebonne - 53
Union - 1

[Sam Spade]

Alexander up by 1,007 now with 52 precincts outstanding.

There were a lot of precincts left in St. Tammany last time I looked, so that's not surprising.  What's left?

[Sam Spade]

With 25 precincts left, Alexander is ahead of Foti by almost 3,800 votes.  I think that one's done.

Oh, and Jindal's gone back up to 54%.

[Sam Spade]

 St. Tamanny is very conservative. I think we can count on Alexander and Donelon eeking it out.

No, I know.  I meant to say earlier when Foti was up by 2,500 votes that it didn't look good b/c of the precincts out in St. Tammany, but I was too slow on the trigger button. 

[Sam Spade]

My prediction:

Jindal 53%
Boasso 19%
Campbell 12%
Georges 11%
Other 5%

If Jindal were to pull over 55%, Landrieu should really watch out, imho.

Actual numbers:
Jindal 54%
Boasso 17%
Georges 14%
Campbell 13%
Other 2%

Pretty good, I must say, for a prediction with few polls (pats himself on back  ).  Overall, looking at the results, Jindal made his biggest gains in northern Baptist Louisiana - places around Shreveport (and Jena too).  The Orleans gains were not as huge for Jindal as these gains (he ran about 5% above where he did last time - and he ran ahead of your typical Republican here even last time)

[Sam Spade]

Alexander over Foti by 5999 votes.

Not sure what happened there.

4 precincts in St. Tammany looks like...

[Sam Spade]

Incidentally, who was the liberal candidate in this election?

There was a liberal candidate in this election?  I hear they don't fair too well in Louisiana.

[Sam Spade]

These results in LA are actually a good sign.
Mitch Landrieu was the top vote getter in all the statewide races:
Lieutenant Governor
130,868                11% Gary J. Beard, R  - 
15,964                  1% Norris "Spanky" Gros, Jr., N  - 
15,553                  1% Thomas D. Kates, N  - 
375,667                30% "Sammy" Kershaw, R  - 
701,863                57% "Mitch" Landrieu, D 

You missed Jay Dardenne (R) @ 63% and 757,762, but I guess you probably didn't look down  on the page far enough. 

[Sam Spade]

I haven't been following this race very closely, but can someone please explain why the racist counties that Jindal lost in 2003, voted for him now?

Because he wasn't running against a racist scum being this time around.

Well, I personally suspect that might have realized that voting for Blanco was a mistake, and that their vote this time was kind of like a "redo".  Also, Jindal campaigned heavily in these areas, I wouldn't underestimate that.

[Sam Spade]

I haven't been following this race very closely, but can someone please explain why the racist counties that Jindal lost in 2003, voted for him now?

Because he wasn't running against a racist scum being this time around.

Well, I personally suspect that might have realized that voting for Blanco was a mistake, and that their vote this time was kind of like a "redo".  Also, Jindal campaigned heavily in these areas, I wouldn't underestimate that.

Most probably so. Still, the core of the explanation is that Blanco had an appeal in Northern Louisiana that the current bunch lacked. I've also just spent the past few minutes comparing this election with the 2004 Senate election. Very enlightening, I gotta say. (And Jindal still did notably worse than Vitter in Northern Louisiana.)

Cajuns don't have appeal in Northern Louisiana.  In fact, they usually have negative appeal.  But against a dark-skinned man, that negative appeal is overwhelmed the dark-skin negative appeal.  And as you pointed out, the dark-skin negative appeal wasn't even entirely overwhelmed even in the "do-over".

[Sam Spade]

Bob Odom, the Democratic incumbent for AG Commissioner has pulled out of the runoff, essentially giving the election to his Republican opponent Mike Strain (I suspect he was going to lose anyway).

http://wwl.com/Odom-pulls-out-of-Ag-Commissioner-s-runoff/1134192

That leaves the Attorney General's race as the only statewide office that will contested in the runoff on November 15.