Ecuadorian elections (referendum, 21 April 2024)

[Peeperkorn]

Sir John, if González wins, do you expect her to have some kind of free will or will she be just Correa's puppet?

[Sir John Johns]

it's looking a lot closer now right? I think González could take this

The debate (or something else recently? but I suspect the debate) did seemingly cause a 3-5 point swing towards RC, which means Gonzales does now have a lead in a poll that previously had Noboa ahead, and a slightly wider lead in the only one that had her leading previously. With the election in under a week, that would seemingly suggest a closer result than the first round implied.

Polls, even if generally unreliable and even if some are even more unreliable than others (Omar Maluk, one of the pollsters that placed González ahead is seen as a fraud, even by Ecuadorian pollsters standards), are indeed predicting a close victory of Noboa and maybe even a toss-up. It is generally considered that Noboa has made a lackluster runoff campaign and exposed several of his weaknesses in the last weeks, notably during the presidential debate. Unlike Lasso in 2021, he didn’t make particular efforts to reach anti-Correa left-wing and indigenous voters (vivid memories of the 2021 runoff when Lasso, the Opus Dei member, posted on Twitter a message to celebrate the LGBTQ+ community), something which may cost him the election at the end of the day. Concerns have also been raised over his flip-flop on the use of the country’s international reserves to finance the potential damages caused by El Niño phenomenon (a proposal he reneged during the debate, casting some doubts about the consistency and sincerity of his economic platform) and his ability to govern the country considering he hasn’t a real party behind him. In short, Noboa has showed some signs of amateurism while the campaign of González has became a bit more professional and coherent. Yet, we only have part of the picture, the one shown by medias and social networks; for what could happen on the ground, in the poor rural communities and the impoverished urban neighborhoods, this is another story and there could be again a surprise, similar to the totally unpredicted performance of Noboa in the first round.

There could be also an ‘October surprise’ as a witness has gave an anticipated testimony under oath in the Villavicencio assassination case, pretending to reveal the names of those who ordered the killing as well as the amount of the sum paid to the hitmen. While the attorney general’s office hasn’t disclosed the testimony nor confirmed or denied the alleged details leaked on the Internet, Christian Zurita has claimed the witness has named ‘the government of Correa’ as the mastermind of the assassination and revealed that a first assassination attempt in Santo Domingo de los Colorados failed on 1 June and that the reward for the killing was 200,000$.

https://twitter.com/christianzr/status/1711209167438991578

The publication of detailed and confirmed information on the case by the justice system or the medias could, if Zurita’s allegations are confirmed, tanked the candidacy of González. Conversely, this could be perceived as a maneuver to prevent the election of González on behalf of an unpopular government (this is already the theory defended by Correa), especially if this is remaining only unconfirmed rumors, and possibly swing the election in favor of González.

Relatedly, Freddy Bravo, a former deputy for Noboa Sr.’s party and a governor of Loja in the Lasso administration, has filed a complaint before the justice to denounce the offshore bank accounts allegedly owned by González in New Zealand (with the Andorra’s Andbank) and in the Cook Islands. As the accusation isn’t backed by any independent investigation and is popping just few days before the runoff and thanks to an anti-RC politician, this is hard to see something else than a gross political maneuver.

Sir John, if González wins, do you expect her to have some kind of free will or will she be just Correa's puppet?

The more probable is she will act as Correa’s puppet but may be forced to distance herself from Correa in case the plans of the exiled former president conflicted too much with her own priorities.

González has been so far an obscure politician who has received the RC presidential nomination only because of her supposed absolute loyalty to the big boss. Any desire for independence would be hence neutered by the party and the parliamentary caucus, almost totally controlled by Correa, and González hasn’t probably enough popularity on her own (at least now) to openly confront Correa.

However the plans of Correa to get rid of his legal problems and to remove the presidential term limits are conflicting with the most urging demands of the voters: quick results in the economic and security areas. The interest of a future González administration will be to firstly address the particularly acute economic and security problems and not wasting time and political capital with the issue of a presidential pardon for Correa and the passage of a new constitution (this is in case the RC doesn’t simply decide to discard the law and the constitution and destroy the what is remaining of the country’s institutionality by voiding the proceedings against Correa and nullifying the results of the 2018 referendum with some pseudo-legalistic arguments, something that could be welcomed with massive protests), stuff that is hardly a priority for voters and could even trigger massive street protests.

The question is whether Correa, who is currently a fugitive from the Ecuadorian justice, could wait in exile, especially as the timetable isn’t favorable to a quick and legit solution of his legal problems. The next general elections are already planned for January 2025: this is sufficient for González to become an unpopular president, doomed to fail in her reelection bid.

[Sir John Johns]

Some updates:

* It has been confirmed that the RC is now in the minority inside the CPCCS as, in the wake of the removal of Alembert Vera by the Constitutional Court, the PSC has decided to terminate its alliance with the followers of Correa (reduced to only two seats) to instead constitute a coalition with the independent councilors of the CPCCS, including Juan Esteban Guarderas, the councilor who has take the seat of the removed Vera. The right-wing party has hence gained control over the CPCCS and has announced the abandonment of the process to remove the attorney-general started under Vera.

Guarderas has announced he will file a complaint before the Electoral Disputes Tribunal (TCE) against Pabel Muñoz, the mayor of Quito, for the particularly ludicrous motive of ‘electoral proselytism’, arguing that the appearance of Muñoz in an election spot of Luisa González diffused on social networks is constituting a breach of the electoral code. If sentenced, Muñoz could be forced to pay a fine or even been removed from his position.

Nevertheless, the TCE has rejected last month another challenge filed by the same Guarderas, this time against the election of Alembert Vera. Guarderas claimed that a video diffused by the RC accounts on social networks in which Vera was quite openly endorsed by the party was constituting a breach of the electoral code; the TCE disagreed, arguing that ‘the diffusion of electoral propaganda on social networks isn’t considered as part of the electoral promotion’.

Needless to say that the trend of legislators and now CPCCS councilors going on a spree to attempt removing elected and public officials for, more than often, frivolous reasons isn’t a good news for Ecuadorian democracy and political stability.

* Mariana Mendieta, the former PSC mayor who got kidnapped in Durán, has been released on 8 October but at least 20 shots have been fired at her home last night.

* The latest publicity stunt of the Noboa campaign: the distribution of lifesize cardboard cutouts of the candidate to be ‘creatively’ used by his supporters in videos posted on TikTok:

https://twitter.com/lahistoriaec/status/1712174262021198152

[Sir John Johns]

Vote is tomorrow.

After the disaster of the first round among Ecuadorian expats, the CNE has decided to drop the online vote to return to vote in person in the embassies and consulates. The contract with the private company in charge of the online vote has also been unilaterally terminated by the CNE. Yet, in four countries, Ecuadorian expats will not be able to vote, the consequence of the political or military situation.

* Nicaragua (87 registered voters): there is no longer an Ecuadorian diplomatic representation in the country due to the bad relationship between the Lasso administration (which notably gave on last February the Ecuadorian citizenship to writer and former vice president Sergio Ramírez after the latter had been stripped from his Nicaraguan citizenship by Ortega) and the Ortega government.

* Israel (293 registered voters): the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas is rendering impossible the voting operations without putting at risk the lives of the voters and the staff of the embassy.

* Russia (441 registered voters): the electoral kits send by Ecuador by mail will reach the country on Monday at best, so after election day, a possible consequence of the war in Ukraine.

* Belarus (41 registered voters): the electoral kits destined for Belarus are packed with the ones destined for Russia.

Not enough registered voters to change the final result, however.

Back in 2021, the expats in Chile (a country with a much larger Ecuadorian community than the four aforementioned countries) couldn’t similarly voted in the runoff due to the introduction of lockdown measures by the Chilean government less than a month before election day.

[Sir John Johns]

Voting is underway with very few incidents having been reported so far. The major one has been the arrest of the member of the staff of a polling station in a remote parish of Sucumbíos province (northeastern part of the country, in the Amazon region) who was caught intoxicated with fifteen ballots in favor of Luisa González on him. There were also bomb alerts in two polling stations in Quito which turned out to be false while a woman died in another polling station of Quito from a respiratory arrest. The overall majority of the reported incidents are concerning violations of the ley seca prohibiting the sale, purchase and distribution of alcohol on election day.

The last hours before the starting of the voting operations have seen the teams of both candidates resorting to very dubious practices. Various private medias have aired  an advertisement for the Quaker oat drink featuring MMA fighter Marlon Vera; few days before, Vera publicly endorsed Noboa leading to accusations of disguised electoral propaganda in favor of Noboa.

Meanwhile, followers of Luisa González have posted on social network a television report discussing the ties between the Noboa family and drug traffickers; the journalist who made the report has denounced a manipulation to tarnish Noboa (the Noboas aren’t mentioned in the actual report) through the counterfeiting of her voice to make her say things she didn’t actually said.

[Sir John Johns]

After the drunken man arrested in Sucumbíos for stuffing ballot boxes in favor of Luisa González…

https://twitter.com/yali_loaiza/status/1713652384428110249

Another arrest for marking electoral ballots in Ecuador. A man was arrested in Quito for filling ballots. He would be the same who marked ballots in favor of Daniel Noboa and appears in a video diffused by Rafael Correa.

If the most-voted candidate doesn’t win this with a healthy lead, one can expected accusations of vote fraud from the losing side.

Dissatisfied voter nullifying his/her vote by writing 'Taylor Swift President' on the ballot:

[Sir John Johns]

Polls have just closed and the first exit poll ('preliminary results') is giving Noboa as the winner:

https://twitter.com/EstrategasElec1/status/1713676149115572410

[Sir John Johns]

CNE website to follow the results

With 0.8% in:

Daniel Noboa (ADN) 50.9%
Luisa González (RC) 49.1%

Null 7.8%
Blank 0.7%

[Sir John Johns]

With 3.8% in:

Daniel Noboa (ADN) 52.0%
Luisa González (RC) 48.0%

Null 7.7%
Blank 0.8%

[Sir John Johns]

With 6.4% in:

Daniel Noboa (ADN) 51.0%
Luisa González (RC) 49.0%

Null 7.8%
Blank 0.8%

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

With just over 15% in:

Daniel Noboa (ADN): 52.0%
Luisa González (RC): 48%

[Sir John Johns]

With 21.0% (this is quick for once) in:

Daniel Noboa (ADN) 52.3%
Luisa González (RC) 47.7%

Null 7.8%
Blank 0.7%

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I think it’s good for correismo that they didn’t win this. A stunted half-term will just be an albatross for whoever wins, especially an ingenue like both of these candidates are.

[Sir John Johns]

With 33.6% in:

Daniel Noboa (ADN) 52.7%
Luisa González (RC) 47.3%

Null 7.8%
Blank 0.7%

[Sir John Johns]

With 46.1% in:

Daniel Noboa (ADN) 52.8%
Luisa González (RC) 47.2%

Null 7.8%
Blank 0.7%

[Duke of York]

i think Noboa is probably going to win.

[Sir John Johns]

With 56.4% in:

Daniel Noboa (ADN) 52.7%
Luisa González (RC) 47.3%

Null 7.8%
Blank 0.7%

This is probably over for González at this point. With 55.5% of votes counted in the province, Noboa is leading in Guayas with 50.3% while he is way ahead in most provinces of the Sierra.

[Sir John Johns]

With 71.5% in:

Daniel Noboa (ADN) 52.0%
Luisa González (RC) 48.0%

Null 7.8%
Blank 0.7%

[Sir John Johns]

With 81.8% in:

Daniel Noboa (ADN) 52.2%
Luisa González (RC) 47.8%

Null 7.8%
Blank 0.7%

This is over. Otto Sonnenholzner and Bolívar Armijos have just congratulated Noboa for his victory.

At 35, Daniel Noboa will become one of the youngest presidents of Ecuador (medias are calling him the youngest one but Juan José Flores was 30 when he became president at the time Ecuador seceded from Colombia). He is also enabling Alianza PAIS (now rebranded as MOVER and purged of its Correísta elements) to regain the presidency after a two-year stint in opposition.

Kudos to Correa for losing a second easily winnable election in a row. The question is who they will blame for the defeat and if the RC will run a third different presidential candidate in four years in 2025 or stick with González (they rather should not renominate Arauz, the guy has been unable to win a single election).

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

The results are pretty much the same as those in John's last post with 97% of the votes counted

[Sir John Johns]

Luisa González has rapidly conceded defeat and congratulated Noboa for his victory, sparring the country a drama about alleged frauds similar to what happened in 1998 or 2017. Yet, no signs of self-criticism coming from the RC big boss:

https://twitter.com/MashiRafael/status/1713762055553970337

Beloved Homeland, Great Homeland:
This time we didn’t succeeded. We face enormous powers. A candidate was even assassinated to prevent our victory.

The treason of Lenín Moreno continues to cause damages, but nobody doubts that, in the end, Ecuador will return on the path of development and Latin American integration.

Towards victory, always.

The party organized to celebrate the victory of Noboa in the ADN’s house located in the touristic resort of Olón (Santa Elena province) is also giving some indications about how the new government will look like and, shocking revelation, this will not be a ‘center-left’ government. Various business people and celebrities arrived at Olón by helicopter to congratulate the president-elected of Ecuador. Among them were Annabella Azín, the mother of Daniel and a former PRIAN legislator; Isabel Noboa, the aunt of Daniel and, as the head of the Nobis consortium, the wealthiest woman (also the ex-wife of Isidro Romero, a right-wing presidential candidate in 2021); Roberto Gilbert, a renowned surgeon and PSC politician, who came to announce the support of the PSC to the next administration (Gilbert is also a nephew of former PSC president León Febres-Cordero, the grandson of a vice-president in the 1950s as well as a childhood friend of Álvaro Noboa); finally MMA fighter Marlon Vera. Not really a popular celebration.

The first names mentioned to hold ministries in the Noboa administration are also very indicative: Gabriela Sommerfeld, a Quito businesswoman who has chaired various companies in air transport, hotel business and construction sectors, would became foreign minister; Sonsoles García, a lawyer specialized in international trade matters and a former chairwoman of the Ecuadorian Federation of Exporters, would became the minister for production, external trade, investments and fisheries; Iván Wong, currently the vice-president of the Association of Bananas Exporters of Ecuador after a stint as a director in the Ecuadorian branch of the Dole Food Company, would became the next agriculture minister, a job he is familiar with as he had previously served in 2012 as a vice-minister in the agriculture ministry in the Correa administration, an appointment then strongly criticized by banana small producers.

The next step is the convening of the new National Assembly and the constitution of parliamentary majority for Noboa, taking into account that the ADN has only 14 seats out of 137 and that its legislators are mostly inexperienced and/or obvious crooks. The most famous names of the ADN bench are Valentina Centeno, a 26-year-old lawyer and volley-ball player whose administrative experience is limited to having hold minor jobs in the Ministry for Sport; Arturo Moreno, a cousin of Lenín Moreno and the leader of the PID fake party, who had been investigated in 2008 for bribery; Diego Matovelle who was the ID candidate for prefect of Azuay on last February; Jonathan Parra, an opportunist ex-alternate assemblyman for Alianza PAIS; Eckenner Recalde, already an assemblyman for the ID in the previous legislature who survived a removal parliamentary vote when accused of bribery. Noboa has previously announced he would hold a consulta in order to get a wide-ranging justice reform and economic measures passed, a way to circumvent a potentially unruly National Assembly.

[Peeperkorn]

It cannot be overstated how important is Correa's defeat for Latin American democracy.
I don't think that Noboa will be a successful/popular president though.

[Sir John Johns]

With 99.7% counted:

Daniel Noboa 51.8%
Luisa González 48.2%

Null 7.7%
Blank 0.8%

González has received about 638,000 more votes than Arauz in 2021 while, for his part, Noboa has increased the number of votes received by the non-Correísta candidate by about 588,000 votes compared to Lasso in 2021. Both candidates have benefited from the collapse in null votes which had went from 16.3% in the 2021 runoff to 7.7% in this year runoff.

A rapid map showing the winner by province.



Noboa came ahead in all provinces of the highlands, receiving its best nationwide result in Tungurahua (74.5%) while also scoring decisive leads in Pichincha (60.1%) and Azuay (58.9%), the two most populated provinces of the region, also both led by a RC prefect. Closest victory has been in Imbabura province (50.6%).

By contrast, González won all provinces of the Costa bar El Oro (won by Arauz in 2021), where Noboa came ahead with 50.2% of the votes and a 1,444-vote-lead over the RC candidate. Unsurprisingly, the best province of González is Manabí where the RC candidate received 65.8% of the vote (a slight decrease compared to the 66.1% obtained by Arauz). Results were close in Guayas with 52.2% of the votes for González (against 53.0% for Arauz in 2021) - a province where the RC appears to have lost Guayaquil to Noboa - as well as in the province of Santo Domingo (won by Lasso in 2021 with 50.8%) where González prevailed with, also, 50.8%.

Noboa won the Galápagos as well as four of six Amazonian provinces, losing only Sucumbíos (59.7% for González, up from the 56.3% obtained by Arauz in 2021) and Orellana (52.9% up from the 44.5% of Arauz).

Contrast the 2023 presidential runoff map with the 2006 one to see the significant transformation of the Correísta and Noboísta electoral basis.





Likely final composition of the National Assembly after the repeat of the legislation elections with Ecuadorians abroad (changes compared to 2021)

Citizen Revolution (RC) 52 seats (+3)
Construye 29 seats (+28)
Social Christian Party (PSC) 14 seats (-4)
National Democratic Action (ADN) 14 seats (new)
Actuemos (SUMA+Avanza) 8 seats (+6)
Pachakutik 5 seats (-22)
Patriotic Society Party (PSP) 3 seats (+2)
Claro que se puede 3 seats (+2)
Democratic Center (CD) 1 seat (+1)
RETO 1 seat (+1)
AMIGO 1 seat (+1)
Local movements 6 seats (+3)

CREO and ID (12 seats in 2021 and 18 seats in 2021) out.

Lucio Gutiérrez ultimately save his national assemblyman seat.

Noboa could go with an unholy alliance with the RC which will permit him to deal with only a partner, but this will be certainly very harmful, politically speaking, for both Noboa and the RC. Otherwise, he could attempt to build a frail coalition with Construye (which is already beginning to crumble) and the PSC (the bunch of sociopaths which has been a pain in the ass for all right-wing administrations since the 1990s) and buy the support of Actuemos, the PSP or local movements to reach the absolute majority.

[Sir John Johns]

Marcela Aguiñaga has announced in a video her ‘irrevocable’ resignation from the national presidency of the RC.

https://twitter.com/marcelaguinaga/status/1714803019882045849

During her message, Aguiñaga mentions that ‘the path of politics is one of resistance, but also of much ingratitude, sometimes accompanied by infamies and calumnies that disrupt our families’, a declaration widely interpreted as a veiled attack against Pierina Correa, the sister of Rafael and a reelected RC national assemblywoman.

In the wake of the defeat of González, Pierina has publicly expressed criticism against the direction of the RC, stating notably her opposition to the holding of the movement’s national presidency concurrently with an elected office or an electoral candidacy and regretting the choice of González as the RC presidential candidate as ‘it wasn’t the time for a female president’.

A new national president must be chosen the next month with the name of Luisa González being mentioned as a potential successor to González at the helm of the RC.

The RC bigwigs have all publicly denied the circulating rumors about the existence of infighting within the political movement, rejecting allegations made about the upcoming defection of several Correísta assemblymen-elect. Yet, one of the assemblyman supposed to contemplate jumping ship, Ferdinan Álvarez (elected in Guayas third district), hasn’t afaik published any message denying he was on his way to leave.

[Sir John Johns]

* Detailed results are finally online:

https://resultados.cne.gob.ec/
(1st round + referendums)

https://resultadosv2.cne.gob.ec/
(2nd round)

Already working on maps of both rounds of the presidential election.



* Daniel Noboa has remained largely silent since his election, leaving open to doubt what will be his policies and which alliance will he try to seek in the parliament.

A controversy has arisen about the inclusion in his transition team of Alberto Dahik, a former vice-president of Ecuador between 1992 and 1995. Dahik is an unpopular figure for various reasons including his past as a finance minister in the Febres-Cordero administration; his support for finance deregulation policies subsequently widely blamed for having led to the 1999 bank crisis; his abrupt resignation from the vice-presidency and departure from the country when involved in a scandal of misuse of state funds and bribery (gastos reservados); his current role as a media pundit which has led him to express strong opinions on topics he isn’t considered as legitimate to discuss about (in the most egregious case: abortion in case of rape). In short, Dahik is the prime example of the widely despised mismos políticos de siempre.



* The first appointment in the Noboa administration has been more or less confirmed by non-official and unsurprisingly Ivonne Baki will be reappointed in her duties of ambassador in Washington in spite of her close ties with the now toxic Senator Bob Menendez and her personal friendship with Donald Trump.

According to Plan V:

Diplomatic sources which have requested secrecy said that Baki would have announced to the staff of the Ecuadorian Embassy in Washington she will be confirmed by the new government of Daniel Noboa after having had a conversation with Annabella Azín, the mother of Daniel and a future advisor ad honorem in the Palace, of whom Baki would be a close personal friend.

Baki has a long career in politics having, besides presiding for a while the Andean Parliament and running for president in 2002, held an official job in basically every Ecuadorian administration in the last twenty-five years: ambassador in Washington under Presidents Jamil Mahuad (1998-2000) and Gustavo Noboa (2002-2002); minister for external trade under Lucio Gutiérrez (2002-05) in which post she used her friendship with Trump to obtain the organization in Quito of Miss Universe 2004; head of the negotiation team for the Yasuní ITT Initiative under Correa (2010-13); ambassador in Doha (2017-20) and in Washington (2020-21) under Moreno; reappointed as ambassador in Washington (2021-23) under Lasso. And so reappointed ambassador in Washington by Noboa (2023-?)



* Meanwhile, the Ferdinan Álvarez thing is turning into a crazy telenovela after the leaking by La Posta of several audios.

https://twitter.com/lahistoriaec/status/1716150339097768340

Try to control Sol. The Correísta assemblyman-elect Ferdinan Álvarez recorded his discussion with Rafael Correa, in which the former president requested him to control the former adviser of Jorge Glas, Soledad Padilla, so she doesn’t ruin the political project. Correa confirms to Álvarez that Padilla was the partner of Glas. And now they have denounced each other.

To sum up: Padilla has worked as an adviser and a personal assistant to Jorge Glas and visited on a quasi-daily basis the former vice president when the latter was in jail after his sentencing for corruption. Tired of the advances of Glas which would not have been reciprocal (according to her), Padilla would have threatened to file a lawsuit against the former vice president for ‘psychological violence’ just as the presidential elections were going on.

The complaint has ultimately been filed just after the presidential runoff. According to the excerpts leaked on the Internet, it includes accusations of verbal and psychological intimidation against the vice president, also blamed for Padilla’s divorce due to alleged ‘illegal actions and pressure’ on the justice system during the divorce trial (actually very similar to accusations made against Daniel Noboa in his divorce case against his first wife).

Afraid of the potential political consequences of such complaint in the middle of an election process, the RC leadership would have spread rumors against Padilla (according to the plaintiff) while Correa would have personally intervened to demand Ferdinan Álvarez - the current romantic partner of Padilla (a crazy telenovela I said) - he pressures Padilla to obtain the abandonment of the complaint. In the conversation secretly recorded by Álvarez for some reason (as a way to protect himself? blackmail?) and certainly leaked by the same to the press, Correa is warning he will not ‘allow this to damage the political project where our lives are at play’. In another leaked audio, Padilla can be heard saying she has promised ‘Luisa’ to not file a lawsuit before the conclusion of the elections.

Correa has denounced the leaking of the audios as the work of ‘garbage press’ while Glas has criticized the whole story as a campaign of 'infamies and calumnies' against him and has himself filed a complaint against Padilla for ‘extortion’.

A related controversy has emerged about the fact that Padilla has been an employee of the Pichincha prefecture between 2019 and last August, rising some questions about the reality of her job and whether she was paid to visit Glas in prison.

This is of course feeding the rumors about divisions inside the RC and a departure of Álvarez (who was supposed to be the coordinator of the movement’s bench in the 2023-25 legislature) and maybe others.

Edit: Álvarez has resigned the coordination of the RC parliamentary bloc. The RC has hence lost in a few days its national president and its designated parliamentary coordinator because of feuds with members of Correa's close circle.