Liechtenstein Landtag election - 7th February 2021

[parochial boy]

I noticed this was on, so here is a thread. The government is currently (since 2005) a coalition of the two major parties (the FBP and VU), led by the FBP's Adrian Hasler.

participating are:

Progressive Citizens Party (FBP) - 35.2% in 2017 - right wing
Fatherland Union (VU) - 33.7% in 2017 - right-wing although allegedly marginally less so than the FBP
The Independents/Die Unabhängigen (DU) - 18.4% - nationalist-populist right
Free List/Freie Liste (FL) - 12.6% - ecologist left, but not very left

Also a new party in the form of Demokraten pro Liechtenstein (Democrats for Liechtenstein), who are a split from the Independents - their website has some blurb about "the social state" so maybe they're a bit less right wing, but it also might not mean anything. Otherwise, they might be a bit of a spoiler, but also might not. I haven't seen any polling, but the Liechtensteiner Volksblatt and Vaterland both payroll everything and I ain't paying my own money to read about glorified municipal politics.

There is actually a "who to vote for" quiz at https://www.wahlhilfe.li/ which is full of important questions like "should we increase financial support for the ski lifts in Malbun?" but is otherwise fairly helpful as it functions as a sort of microscope in order to help you detect the minuscule differences between the FBP and VU (they mostly agree on the ski lifts).

[parochial boy]

What would make someone vote for VU instead of FBP or vice-versa? The place is too much of a village to have any relevant political divides (civil war like in Ireland? hahaha) and it's not personalities either, the parties' support has always been too stable for that, so I assume it's for "your great-great-grandfather stole my great-great-grandmother's horse" reasons?

My reseachings have taken me to the Liechtenstein Historical Lexicon, which informs me that one of the founding partners of the VU was the old "Christian Social Party" and that the party is traditionally close to the Liechtensteinischer ArbeitnehmerInnenverband , that is, the only labour union in the country. The FBP on the other hand, was traditionally close to farmers, artisans and catholic church. So, astonishingly enough, it is a pretty "traditional" political divide - although probably these days there is just a huge friends and families vote tying the parties to their traditional strong points.

The VU is stronger in the Oberland, which is (presumably) the more industrial and urban region - notably you have the industrial giant Hilti in Schaan - the FBP is stronger in the Unterland, which is flatter and (also presumably) a bit more agricultural.

But overall, the country is basically a rural, catholic tax haven glued on to, and culturally part of, the most right wing part of Switzerland. And, well, it shows.

[parochial boy]

And in actual news, claiming a lack of information about the long term effects of RNA vaccines, Die Unabhängigen have launched a complaint to the constitutional court against the approval of the Covid vaccine.

The Swiss Constitutional court, that is.

[parochial boy]

If anyone wants to participate in the exit poll then you can, here, apparently no worries about actually being a voter there or not.

Based on the head of the Liechtenstein-Instituts, Christian Frommelt, the outcome of this election could be closer between the big two than has been in the case in recent years, even if the campaign has apparently been very quiet and, unsurprisingly, corona driven.

More interesting is perhaps what happens between DU and DPL. From what it seems, DPL are enjoying somewhat of a surge in popularity, and could really split the "populist" vote, and even surpass DU. To the point that DU could even wind up under the 8% hurdle required to enter parliament.

the Freie Liste seem likely to hold steady

[parochial boy]

Live results for anyone strange enough to be interested, or having a really boring Sunday or whatever. Polls closed almost three hours ago, with results supposedly starting to come through an hour ago, but nothing yet.

[parochial boy]

Live results for anyone strange enough to be interested, or having a really boring Sunday or whatever. Polls closed almost three hours ago, with results supposedly starting to come through an hour ago, but nothing yet.

Polls closed at noon? What?

And the DU looks... in really bad shape.

Everything in Liechtenstein is just a copy-paste of Switzerland. Polls close at midday in Switzerland, because voting is done almost entirely in advance/by post, therefore in Lichtenstein too.

DU losing was expected, although potentially not at this level, although DPL are slightly less awful, FBP are losing groud too and FL seem to be doing well. So dare we use the word Linksrutch, even if, given the context, ironically?

It seems like a similar voting system to e.g. Luxembourg, where the voter can vote for as many candidates as there are seats in the districts. And it's possible to vote across parties. So in the count per party there are "unveränderten"/unchanged votes, where all votes go the party you have chosen, and "veränderten"/changed votes, where the voter have replaced some candidates from the preferred party by candidates from other parties.

Again, copy-paste of the Swiss system

[parochial boy]

Done. VU finish as largest party. By 0,01%. Got to hand it to them for a close finish.

[parochial boy]

I mean, Liechtenstein has no Soc Dem party because it has no Soc Dem tradition, and that particular social class was sucked into the VU in the era when one might have been relevant.

These days it lacks a substantial left wing party because it fundamentally lacks a left wing electorate. Culturally very similar to rural Ostschweiz, which is already the most Conservative part of Switzerland, but without the long standing democratic tradition and with an economy that is fundamentally dependent on being a tax haven and home to deeply opaque tax structures. The locals obviously aren't going to bite the hand that feeds them. I mean, case in point, it is notable that the Freie Liste vote in Liechtenstein is substantially weaker than the left wing vote on the Swiss side of the Rhine - which may be structurally right wing, but does at least have the traditions of labour activism, class conflict, progressive politics and all the rest.