What if the President and Vice President were elected in seperate elections?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh that's a fun concept. Let's try 1960:

Nixon: 269
Kennedy: 254
Unpledged: 14

That's one election where VP selection might have made the difference. Without LBJ to help Kennedy, he does significantly worse in the South and allows Nixon to just barely eke out a win. By contrast, Lodge did little to help Nixon in the Northeast, so there's little for him to lose. The popular vote is still ridiculously close, but Nixon just barely ekes out a win, and the whole course of history is changed.

Now, the VP election would be very different from the Presidential one. I'm picturing something like this:

Johnson: 302
Lodge: 235

And so we get the absolute bonkers scenario of a Nixon/LBJ administration, with levels of mutual backstabbing that would make Adams and Jefferson blush. The potential butterflies here are beyond insane, of course.

I might try more of these later.

[Antonio the Sixth]

1964:

Johnson: 486
Goldwater: 52

No change to the presidential map. Miller was a nonentity and HHH could have helped if the Midwest and Rust Belt were close but they just weren't. As for the VP election:

Humphrey: 425
Miller: 113

HHH's progressive firebrand reputation makes it harder for him to break through in the South and in the more rock-ribbed GOP states, but Miller's nonentity status and the national environment still carries him to an easy victory.

[Antonio the Sixth]

1968:

Nixon: 305
Humphrey: 187
Wallace: 46

Can't see the Presidential changing much except for Maine flipping to Nixon.

VP:

Muskie: 276
Agnew: 235
LeMay: 27

On the one hand, LeMay wouldn't be nearly as much of a presence in the campaign as Wallace was, and that would help Agnew consolidate the segregationist vote and do much better in the South. On the other hand, I'm pretty sure Muskie would do a lot better elsewhere, with Agnew's conservative loudmouth persona just not playing well elsewhere, and I think Muskie could prevail in just enough states to win the election, just once again ending up with President Nixon having to share power with a Democratic VP.

[Antonio the Sixth]

1972:

Nixon: 520
McGovern: 17

I can't really see anything changing here. I really doubt McGovern could have done any worse without Shriver, or that Agnew helped Nixon carry any state. Shriver on his own could do a little better without McGovern dragging him down, but he can't overcome the brutal national environment:

Agnew: 496
Shriver: 42

[Antonio the Sixth]

1976:

Carter: 294
Ford: 244

Without their the VP candidates to act as ideological anchors with their respective parties' bases, the map is even weirder than IRL, with Carter carrying Oklahoma as he came close to doing IRL. Overall not much difference, though.

The VP race meanwhile is a very different matter:

Mondale: 305
Dole: 233

A much more "modern" looking map given the much stronger ideological polarization between the candidates. Mondale still wins due to the overall environment but it's far from a blowout.

[Antonio the Sixth]

1980:

Reagan: 483
Carter: 55

Without Mondale, Carter does worse in the Midwest and might even barely lose MN, but conversely Bush's absence might cost Reagan a few of the Southern states he just barely won IRL. Overall not much changes, but the map still has a bit of a different feel to it. Meanwhile, for VP:

Bush: 435
Mondale: 103

Mondale does a bit better by holding on to traditional Democratic strongholds (especially since Lucey alone wouldn't do as well as Anderson), but loses the South and overall still loses overwhelmingly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

1984:

Reagan: 525
Mondale: 13

Mondale does marginally better, but not enough to improve his electoral map, still leaving Reagan as the most successful presidential candidate EV wise since FDR. For VP meanwhile...

Bush 535
Ferraro: 3

Yep, it's a 50-state landslide. Thank God for the 23rd Amendment or we'd actually have ended up with the first unanimous Electoral College since 1820 (faithless electors aside). Depressing to see the first female VP nominee end up like that, and the cultural implications would almost certainly be even bleaker than IRL.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think that Mondale wpuld have won Massachusetts in this case.

3-point margin is pretty hard to overcome barring a strong personal effect, and MA is not a state where Ferraro would have been much of a drag or Bush much of an asset for Reagan.

[Antonio the Sixth]

1988:

Bush: 432
Dukakis: 106

Without Bentsen to balance the ticket, Bush does a little better, especially in the South.

VP:

Bentsen: 366
Quayle: 172

Lloyd "You're No Jack Kennedy" Bentsen easily obliterates feckless moron Dan Quayle, providing an outlet for the many voters who want some kind of change but were uncomfortable voting for Dukakis. And thus we get our third cohabitation between a Republican President and a Democratic VP, while the opposite still hasn't come up.

[Antonio the Sixth]

1992:

Clinton: 370
Bush: 168

Can't see anything changing here. There's no geographic strength Gore would bring than Clinton didn't already have, and while Quayle didn't help Bush I doubt he actively hurt him anywhere significant. So yeah, boring map, sorry.

VP:

Gore: 309
Quayle: 229

Even with Homer Simpson's crucial endorsement, Stockdale wouldn't do nearly as well as Perot (frankly he'd be lucky to break 10%). Most of his voters would probably go to Quayle, especially with Gore not being nearly as folksy and charismatic as Clinton. So in a strange reversal from 1988 we have Quayle doing quite a bit better than Bush, though ultimately he still loses pretty handily.

[Antonio the Sixth]

1996:

Clinton: 379
Dole 159

Once again, can't see much change here. Maybe Dole does a tad worse in the Northeast without Kemp, though I'm not sure if he was much of a regional boost.

VP:

Kemp: 278
Gore: 260

This might be a bold move but I feel like there was enough anti-Dem sentiment around that time for Gore to lose, especially given I can't really see anyone voting for Pat "Who?" Choate and most Reform voters would probably go to Kemp. I guess I finally wanted to have on D President / R Veep combo since we had the opposite one so often. Maybe it's a stretch, I dunno. Either way this would be significantly closer than the presidential.

[Antonio the Sixth]

2000:

Bush: 271
Gore: 266

Without Lieberman, Gore probably loses Florida fair and square rather than having it stolen from him. He also might do a point or so worse in the Northeast across the board, meaning he might actually lose the popular vote too. On the other hand, it's hard to see what Cheney brought to Bush electorally, aside from maybe a very slight boost in the rural West.

VP:

Lieberman: 296
Cheney: 242

I really can't see Cheney doing well electorally on his own. Frankly even this map seems generous to him, but 2000 is really the birth of the modern era of extreme geographic polarization, so he couldn't do as badly as, say, Quayle. Still, Lieberman would probably carry Florida by at least a couple points, and do better across the board and especially in the urban Northeast. And so we have our fourth GOP Pres/Dem VP cohabitation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

2004:

Bush: 286
Kerry: 251

No change. Maybe Bush does slightly better without Cheney dragging him down, but that's barely perceptible.

VP:

Edwards: 284
Cheney: 254

I know I'm getting boring with these but I think Edwards just barely pulls it off. He was a strong campaigner in his prime and his populist flair might play particularly well in the Rust Belt. It's still very close because modern polarization is now in full swing, but it really didn't take that much for 2004 to go differently, and I think we'd see that with the VP election. So once again, R Pres/D VP. Sorry, I swear I'm not doing this on purpose.

[Antonio the Sixth]

2008:

Obama: 339
McCain: 199

Without Biden to compensate for his lack of political experience (and let's be real, skin color), Obama's win isn't quite the same blowout, and he loses ground especially in the rural South. Still a decisive win given the national environment and Obama's own political talent.

VP:

Biden: 383
Palin: 155

Biden easily clobbers Palin in a result reminiscent of Bentsen vs Quayle.