Only the hardcore Democratic states would vote for Hillary.
Why would anyone who voted for Kerry not vote for Hillary. Kerry is by far the more liberal and less likeable of the two (not that I dislike Kerry of course).
The only Kerry states Hillary would have to play much defense in are WI and OR, and maybe PA. She should probably win AR (unless the GOP nominates Huckabee) and make a play on FL and/or OH.
Hillary's chances are vastly underrated, and hopefully that'll help her in the end.
It's b/c Kerry was not Bush. The only reason Kerry won states like WI, PA, MI was due to the anti-Bush sentiment. If 2004 was a year like 2002, or if 9/11/01 had been 9/11/03, I think Bush would have beaten Kerry in PA, MI, WI, NH, and maybe MN or OR, but that's the best I think any GOP nominee could do.
However, we cannot change history, so all this is moot
Also, I think MI could be surprisngly close against Hillary, a very possibly GOP pickup with McCain
