NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Eraserhead]

Did we ever end up getting final results?

I thought they're already in. For governor it's 52.4%-46.7%. Around 326k raw votes difference.

Do we know that for sure?

[Eraserhead]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

What in god's name happened to the Bronx? Seems like all the NY Dem underperformance largely comes from NYC (though Schumer had the biggest losses in Upstate, compared to the previous elections).

It's pretty clear from the results that many blacks and especially hispanics didn't bother to come out to vote this year in New York.

[President Johnson]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

What in god's name happened to the Bronx? Seems like all the NY Dem underperformance largely comes from NYC (though Schumer had the biggest losses in Upstate, compared to the previous elections).

It's pretty clear from the results that many blacks and especially hispanics didn't bother to come out to vote this year in New York.

Do you think the Democratic message just failed to resonate in these comminities or did Democrats seem not to bother turning them out? In retrospect, I feel like the Democratic slate of candidate just took the state for granted. Sure, it was always Safe Democratic, but you should also try to win by as much as possible.

[kwabbit]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

What in god's name happened to the Bronx? Seems like all the NY Dem underperformance largely comes from NYC (though Schumer had the biggest losses in Upstate, compared to the previous elections).

It's pretty clear from the results that many blacks and especially hispanics didn't bother to come out to vote this year in New York.

The Bronx is little non-Hispanic White that it’s not a matter of turnout differences among racial groups. Non-white Republicans probably turned out more than Non-white Democrats, but most of it was that Zeldin did just persuade a large amount of Hispanic voters in the Bronx.

The Bronx is easy to analyze because it’s like 8% NH White and there are very few solid Republicans. Swings there are very likely to be from persuasion.

[wbrocks67]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

What in god's name happened to the Bronx? Seems like all the NY Dem underperformance largely comes from NYC (though Schumer had the biggest losses in Upstate, compared to the previous elections).

It's pretty clear from the results that many blacks and especially hispanics didn't bother to come out to vote this year in New York.

Do you think the Democratic message just failed to resonate in these comminities or did Democrats seem not to bother turning them out? In retrospect, I feel like the Democratic slate of candidate just took the state for granted. Sure, it was always Safe Democratic, but you should also try to win by as much as possible.

IMO it's just normal midterm dynamics. Nonwhite turnout is the first to fall in a midterm like this so it's not surprising to me that in a safe blue state that normal midterm dynamics prevailed

[President Johnson]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

What in god's name happened to the Bronx? Seems like all the NY Dem underperformance largely comes from NYC (though Schumer had the biggest losses in Upstate, compared to the previous elections).

It's pretty clear from the results that many blacks and especially hispanics didn't bother to come out to vote this year in New York.

Do you think the Democratic message just failed to resonate in these comminities or did Democrats seem not to bother turning them out? In retrospect, I feel like the Democratic slate of candidate just took the state for granted. Sure, it was always Safe Democratic, but you should also try to win by as much as possible.

IMO it's just normal midterm dynamics. Nonwhite turnout is the first to fall in a midterm like this so it's not surprising to me that in a safe blue state that normal midterm dynamics prevailed

That's certainly a factor, though even 2014 and 2010 were better for Democrats. Especially 2010, when Cuomo destroyed Paladino by 30 points.

[Duke of York]

Hochul also ran a terrible campaign and barely campaigned. Her ads were all about two things until the final few weeks and her debate performance wasn't great either.

Had she responded to Zeldin's attacks about crime earlier and not taken the race for granted she might have won by more.

[wbrocks67]

Hochul also ran a terrible campaign and barely campaigned. Her ads were all about two things until the final few weeks and her debate performance wasn't great either.

Had she responded to Zeldin's attacks about crime earlier and not taken the race for granted she might have won by more.

Does that really explain it all though? It's definitely a part of it, but Schumer being +13 is almost way worse than Hochul's +6

[Duke of York]

Hochul also ran a terrible campaign and barely campaigned. Her ads were all about two things until the final few weeks and her debate performance wasn't great either.

Had she responded to Zeldin's attacks about crime earlier and not taken the race for granted she might have won by more.

Does that really explain it all though? It's definitely a part of it, but Schumer being +13 is almost way worse than Hochul's +6

not all of it but its definitely a factor. Democrats also didn't show up to the polls.

[Sir Mohamed]

Hochul also ran a terrible campaign and barely campaigned. Her ads were all about two things until the final few weeks and her debate performance wasn't great either.

Had she responded to Zeldin's attacks about crime earlier and not taken the race for granted she might have won by more.

Does that really explain it all though? It's definitely a part of it, but Schumer being +13 is almost way worse than Hochul's +6

not all of it but its definitely a factor. Democrats also didn't show up to the polls.

The question really is why this is unique to NY? These results would suggest a red tsunami nationwide and not a neutral environment. James also won by single digits.

[wbrocks67]

Hochul also ran a terrible campaign and barely campaigned. Her ads were all about two things until the final few weeks and her debate performance wasn't great either.

Had she responded to Zeldin's attacks about crime earlier and not taken the race for granted she might have won by more.

Does that really explain it all though? It's definitely a part of it, but Schumer being +13 is almost way worse than Hochul's +6

not all of it but its definitely a factor. Democrats also didn't show up to the polls.

The question really is why this is unique to NY? These results would suggest a red tsunami nationwide and not a neutral environment. James also won by single digits.

Seems the same thing in CA though. Dem voters just didn't really turn out in safe blue states that didn't have any major statewide races that really seemed to be "in trouble"

[Sir Mohamed]

Hochul also ran a terrible campaign and barely campaigned. Her ads were all about two things until the final few weeks and her debate performance wasn't great either.

Had she responded to Zeldin's attacks about crime earlier and not taken the race for granted she might have won by more.

Does that really explain it all though? It's definitely a part of it, but Schumer being +13 is almost way worse than Hochul's +6

not all of it but its definitely a factor. Democrats also didn't show up to the polls.

The question really is why this is unique to NY? These results would suggest a red tsunami nationwide and not a neutral environment. James also won by single digits.

Seems the same thing in CA though. Dem voters just didn't really turn out in safe blue states that didn't have any major statewide races that really seemed to be "in trouble"

Kind of, though Newsom, Padilla, Bonta and Kounalakis still won by nearly 20 pts. or more than that.

In WA, Dems did turn out and Patty Murray won reelection handily despite junk pollsters trying to create a different narrative.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It depends on this ISL ruling in June CA and NY can get more Gerrymandering than before for 24 if ISL is a go

[Duke of York]

It depends on this ISL ruling in June CA and NY can get more Gerrymandering than before for 24 if ISL is a go

Its doubtful it will be. I want it to fail. Its consequences are too disastrous for a few extra seats.

[wbrocks67]

Hochul also ran a terrible campaign and barely campaigned. Her ads were all about two things until the final few weeks and her debate performance wasn't great either.

Had she responded to Zeldin's attacks about crime earlier and not taken the race for granted she might have won by more.

Does that really explain it all though? It's definitely a part of it, but Schumer being +13 is almost way worse than Hochul's +6

not all of it but its definitely a factor. Democrats also didn't show up to the polls.

The question really is why this is unique to NY? These results would suggest a red tsunami nationwide and not a neutral environment. James also won by single digits.

Seems the same thing in CA though. Dem voters just didn't really turn out in safe blue states that didn't have any major statewide races that really seemed to be "in trouble"

Kind of, though Newsom, Padilla, Bonta and Kounalakis still won by nearly 20 pts. or more than that.

In WA, Dems did turn out and Patty Murray won reelection handily despite junk pollsters trying to create a different narrative.

I have a theory that Murray and Bennett actually performed really well because of the influx of cash into those races for GOTV, promotion, etc. Those races were "treated" like "competitive" races and I think that helped motivate Dems to turn out.

[Eraserhead]

Wikipedia now has Hochul at 53.2% and Zeldin at 46.8% so without bothering to look deeply into this I'm assuming more votes have finally been counted.

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1605961028201631751?s=20&t=OoooGVTu2PCzb_K...

I want an apology from each one of you who doubted me about this woman.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I've often given Hochul the benefit of the doubt, but that is just absurd. Hopefully the Democrats in the state senate have the courage to vote him down and force her to pick a more liberal option.

[Virginiá]

This was such an easy way to build a little bit of credibility with the progressive wing of the party and that she just blew it over a nominee who is so comically unsuited for the current political moment really calls into question her judgement on just about everything. Peak absurdity and unfortunately very stereotypical of the New York Democrats.

[Ferguson97]

Common NY Dems L

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like NY Dems are one of the most incompetent state parties that only survives thanks to how D is NY is.

Srs, the factioning that NY Dems have somehow managed to create is just so unnecessary and unhelpful, and the party overall is notorious for corruption.

[Morning in Atlas]

I've told you she was a swamp creature the moment she put a knife in India's back. The only difference between her and Cuomo is her gender.

[coloradocowboi]

I've told you she was a swamp creature the moment she put a knife in India's back. The only difference between her and Cuomo is her gender.

I would even argue Andrew Cuomo is more progressive. This is a woman who IIRC once ran with NRA backing. Again though, all of this has Jay Jacobs nasty fingerprints all over it. The man is literally compromised and must be taken down at all costs.

LaSalle is the kind of braindead Third Way pick that is a humongous red flag that not only do centrist NY Dems not plan to fight back against the GOP, but are keeping the door open to even partnering with them again if it means the landlords, police unions, and Fortune 500 companies that pay their bills keep doing so. Primary every last one of them, and any D Senator who votes to confirm LaSalle. Our party needs to start fearing its voters the way that Republicans do.

[GALeftist]

Unbelievable. Was never in love with Hochul but this is pretty atrocious. Too much is on the line with the NYCoA to throw away a majority. Hope LaSalle is not confirmed, but I'm not optimistic. Hochul should definitely face a serious primary challenge if she decides to run for reelection.

[President Johnson]

Is this guy that was nominated really that bad? I used to like Hochul, but perhaps she's not as good as I thought. Meh. Maybe Democrats can have a fresh start all over in 2026. I'm just not sure who would offer such? Maybe State Senator Jessica Ramos? She seems reasonably progressive, but not from the toxic faction. Also checks a few boxed and is relatively young.