What does a 50-44 Trump victory look like?

[Kingpoleon]

I'm guessing something like this:

[RaphaelDLG]

Yes, that's probably close.  I think Virginia and Colorado might/might not still be Democratic at that point, but if you start pushing much farther, they flip very soon.

***

A question I have is what does a 50-50 Trump-Generic D look like?

With uniform swings and expected trends, it could be something really messed up/absurd for a 50-50 election IMO, like 322 Trump - 216 Clinton (White areas like MN, NH, ME-ATL continue to trend R enough to barely swing all three, while AZ, NC, CO, NV, GA, VA continue to trend D but not in a way that changes the electoral vote count in a 50-50 election).

But uniform swings are a big "if"/probably a bogus assumption, and it'd look more like the competitive map i posted in that other thread except maybe a little tilted toward Repubs.  If not, though, every single tossup state in this map tilts Trump in a 50-50 race.

D 216 - R 204 - T 118

Likely D:
Colorado
Nevada
Virginia

Likely R:
Georgia
Iowa
Maine CD2
Ohio
Texas

Battleground States:
Arizona
Florida
Maine
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska CD2
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

[Ljube]

Trump would also win NM, RI, CT and DE.

[Pericles]

Donald Trump/Mike Pence-Republican: 350 EV 50.1%
Democratic: 188 EV 44.0%

[Person Man]

I don't think we will have YUGE 3rd part numbers again. I am thinking 2 two, tops and a more normal 48-50 win map.
Enough to win MN,NH,MEAL. Maybe he loses MI. NV probably falls. He makes CO and VA close. Doesn't win them.

[Sir Mohamed]

Something like this.

351 versus 187 EVs.

[PresidentTRUMP]

If thats the popular vote result in 2020, than Trump carries all of the states he did this election, plus NV, CO, NH & VA.

EV:

Trump - 338
Dem - 200

compared to 2016

Trump - 306
Clinton - 232

[Person Man]

If thats the popular vote result in 2020, than Trump carries all of the states he did this election, plus NV, CO, NH & VA.

EV:

Trump - 338
Dem - 200

compared to 2016

Trump - 306
Clinton - 232

It will probably be more like 53/46 or 51/45...tops.

[Figueira]

Something like this.

351 versus 187 EVs.

No way Trump is winning Maine's 1st district.

Anyway, Kingpoleon's map is accurate based on a universal swing (give or take Virginia) but based on other factors I think Colorado probably stays Democratic.

So something like this:

[Kingpoleon]

Something like this.

351 versus 187 EVs.

No way Trump is winning Maine's 1st district.

Anyway, Kingpoleon's map is accurate based on a universal swing (give or take Virginia) but based on other factors I think Colorado probably stays Democratic.

So something like this:

That would mean Trump is running up the numbers big time in Democratic states besides NM, CO, and VA.

[Person Man]

Something like this.

351 versus 187 EVs.

No way Trump is winning Maine's 1st district.

Anyway, Kingpoleon's map is accurate based on a universal swing (give or take Virginia) but based on other factors I think Colorado probably stays Democratic.

So something like this:

That would mean Trump is running up the numbers big time in Democratic states besides NM, CO, and VA.

Or just trends are continuing.

[Kingpoleon]

Something like this.

351 versus 187 EVs.

No way Trump is winning Maine's 1st district.

Anyway, Kingpoleon's map is accurate based on a universal swing (give or take Virginia) but based on other factors I think Colorado probably stays Democratic.

So something like this:

That would mean Trump is running up the numbers big time in Democratic states besides NM, CO, and VA.

Or just trends are continuing.

But losing VA, CO, and NM while winning 50-44 implies Trump is doing amazingly in MA, RI, NY, NJ, VT, and maybe even DE. He doesn't have much room to gain in the states he won by >5%.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Hillary won the popular vote by 1.7 million votes! In the same kind of election but a trump win by 6%?

http://www.270towin.com/maps/kNR72

[Kingpoleon]

Hillary won the popular vote by 1.7 million votes! In the same kind of election but a trump win by 6%?

http://www.270towin.com/maps/kNR72

That makes sense if Trump's gains are mostly in states that voted for Clinton by 13% or less.

[Figueira]

Something like this.

351 versus 187 EVs.

No way Trump is winning Maine's 1st district.

Anyway, Kingpoleon's map is accurate based on a universal swing (give or take Virginia) but based on other factors I think Colorado probably stays Democratic.

So something like this:

That would mean Trump is running up the numbers big time in Democratic states besides NM, CO, and VA.

Or just trends are continuing.

But losing VA, CO, and NM while winning 50-44 implies Trump is doing amazingly in MA, RI, NY, NJ, VT, and maybe even DE. He doesn't have much room to gain in the states he won by >5%.

He could also be running up the margins in his own states.

But NM and (barely) VA would still stay Democratic if a universal swing gave Trump a 50-44 win. I just moved CO out because it's trending Democratic and there still might be some truth to the idea that Clinton was a "bad fit" for it. Universal swings don't exist, so it's incredibly unlikely that the "universal swing" map from this year would hold. If you universally swung the 2012 map to the 2016 PV margin, Clinton would win all of Obama's states except FL and OH.