You are making the mistake of thinking of Donald Trump as a Republican. The GOP is dead, at least in terms of an organization that produces Presidents. Donald Trump played them. Like a violin. The "Mexicans are rapists" remarks and tiny-words act in the primaries? That's going away. He's already starting to sound like he stepped out of a think tank. He will walk into the first debate with Hillary using a college-level vocabulary and a mastery of policy positions, and bury the former Secretary.
You think Donald Trump is an idiot? He's going to wipe the floor with Clinton. Her handlers are going to prepare her for the old Donald, and when the new Donald shows up, she'll be left going "dur, dur, dur, dur, dur...."
In the ensuing media frenzy, not only will Donald Trump be publicized in every news outlet 24/7, but the voting population will have forgotten all about his late-2015 antics.
That's how he wins New Jersey.
You really have taken on this whole "Trump is going to defy all odds" angle lately. Anyway, I'm going to go with what decades of reliable trends have shown and not a seriously flimsy hypothetical scenario. Personally, I think you need to balance these theories with actual data.