2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We're not gonna sweep every race but split voting can happen and it happens all the time in FL Crist and Rubio, Renacci and Tim Ryan, and Vernon Jones and Warnock and we can have Fink, especially between H and Prez

Don't forget Cooper and Tillis, and Brown and DeWine and Sinema and Ducey we are up on Generic ballot the same amount we won it by in 2018, by 8 pts

We still have the 1/6th Commission report as well that can damage the Rs



If Trump had the exact same Approvals Rs would be talking sweep



Also a Recall of Dunleavy is happening, it could spell big trouble I'm AO Senate race where Gross is in second place, not Lisa Murkowski

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Generic ballot is meaningless if Newsom is in fact Recalled this September, and TMac isn't gonna win a landslide either, he has been tied to Trump

But yet Biden is at 53/39% the Same Exact Approvals he had on Election night if the Election were held today it's a 304 map but what about Newsom, and if Newsom looses which he should Elder v Villigosa race

Or if Terry McAuliffe looses which is possible

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I posted this we don't know what 2022/ has in store but Breyer might retire, at the end of next Term, because if Roe is overturned, he might be turned off on politics, but Klobuchar is telling Breyer to retire now don't wait

Yeah the GOP is favored but Breyer can retire and we can win the H, and those wave insurance Senate seats, that's why Sheldon Whitehouse made the Speech today on how Conservative the Crt is, but Breyer also said he doesn't believe in Crt packing and using his seat to elevate Crt packing too

We don't know when KETANJI BROWN Jackson is gonna be Justice 2022/2024 but D's are gonna retain Senate

Watch for a retirement when 6/3 Crt overturns Roe and look for D's to Capitalize on it to win in Midterms

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said earlier if Breyer retires, or any type of blue wave can result in a D Trifecta, but as of now it's a Neutral Environment, with Rs taking the H and D's holding the Senate 51/49, loosing GA and Govs loosing KS and winning AZ, MD, MA and we don't know about whom is running on D's in NH but Ben Downing will beat Baker

Breyer retirement or Covid subsiding will help a blue wave, we don't know what 2022 brings and due to Covid they won't release regular polling but Fink, Ryan and Beasley and Demings are probably trailing by 5/8 pts LV not RV

Only poll out of OH had Vance 39/37


The reason why Warnock not Hassan or Nelson in WI will loose is because he is the only one that won't hit 50% due to a runoff scenario and the only state we lost in 2020 was AL  and GA is vulnerable, we lost ME but that was before Collins played her obstruction role on VR


Hassan and Nelson or any D probably reaches 50 as long as Biden reaches 50, it amazes me that users think GA is Lean D and Wzi leaks R and WI voted for the D for Prez as many times as GA voted R for Prez and Stacy Adams hasn't announced she is running

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a Neutral Environment in the Senate and D's are gonna win AZ, MA, MD Govs KS, NH are Tossup and Redistricting in H depends on Majority
.a Neutral Environment means 220/215D H, 52/48 S and 26 D Govs

You keep looking for a Generic ballot test, and Biden Approvals are tracking Gallup 50/45 right where he was on Election night.
Cali, orange Suburbs will determine control of the H make up losses along with NY and IL for TX and FL, GA and NC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wbrooks along with Landslide Lyndon said D's we're gonna win TX in 2020 and KS

The Afghanistan withdrawal knocked Jan Commission off the front burner and now Pat McCrory will be the next Senator, Rs have a veto proof Majority in the state legislature

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are paying attention to Generic ballots 500 days til the Election check back Oct 2022 when it matters

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who cares, the Election is 500 days away, if that's the case why did Rubio o and DeSantis lead go from 20 to 3 pts after AFGHANISTAN

People get so caught up on polling and Trump was a 43% Prez and was impeached twice

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs keep going by approval ratings and he is near where he was in 2020 and it's not even 2022 and far better than Trump 49(48 and Trump never made it above 50

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1429457202012635139

Some of these races included multiple Democratic and/or Republican candidates running at the same time in what is known as a jungle election. If we focus only on non-jungle races in data compiled by Ethan Chen, Republicans are outperforming the 2020 presidential baseline by 3 points.

Either way you look at it, there has been a slight Republican overperformance compared to where things stood last year.

Such a change is not too large. Remember, too, that Trump lost nationally by 4 points, so a 4-point swing toward Republicans suggests a neutral national environment.

But this would likely be enough for Republicans to take back the US House of Representatives, especially considering that they are in a good position for redistricting.
What really jumps out, though, is the trend.

When you look at the first 17 special elections this year (through early April), the Republican overperformance over Trump was just a point. Examining the last 17 special elections, the overperformance has been 7 points. When you splice the data even further, Republicans have been outperforming the 2020 baseline by double-digits since the beginning of July.

Whether such a shift sustains itself can't be known at this point. Things may shift back to Democrats.

Importantly, the shift in favor of Republicans in special election results comes as other indicators suggest that the environment is getting better for the GOP.

The Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot is down to an average 2 points over the last month, after being 4 points for much of the year.

Biden's job approval rating has been tilting downward. His net approval (approval - disapproval) rating is only about +3 points at this point. It had almost always been +10 points or above before July.

Combined, however, these numbers tell a clear story of Republicans picking up ground.

The story may become even clearer a month from now in the California recall gubernatorial election. You might think of it as the biggest non-regularly scheduled election of the year. Biden won California by nearly 30 points.

A Democratic governor in California shouldn't be recalled or be close to being recalled, if Democrats are doing well nationally. The polling suggests that the race could, in fact, be close.

Tough talk from a party that won in 2016 on Russia WikiLeaks and Benghazi and havent really done well except for 2, Elections 2010/2014 on during Tea Party revolt and dominant Speakers Ryan and Boehner, McCarty has a 15% Approvals like Boehner did when he left office


D's still have time for a Blue wave and get DC Statehood

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It may not, but you can’t deny there has been political fallout

538 tracker shows a clear trend and the polling done on the the issue has been horrific for Biden

70%+ think the withdrawal has been done poorly, and that was before the troops were blown up

I continue to be perplexed why you are putting your credibility on the line here.

There is, to date, zero evidence that 2022 is going to be an abnormal midterm.

It’s much safer to err on the side of history than on theories that originated in your own brain

Harry enten has a great article on cnn now with hard data showing why 2022 is looking like a likely house takeover for GOp

Senate is a toss up

Yeah, Yeah,, blah we have 500 days til Election and they are getting crushed in VA and Cali Election abd we supposed to believe they're gonna win and the last time they won was 2014

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was just saying that Biden is at 46/43% Approvals now but there is a rally around the flag and he cand be at 54/46 Approvals in Nov 2022/ if Ryan and Jackson win and we keep the H, the R party is over as we know it Ryan and Jackson aren't Tester or Sinema and Manchin protesting the Filibuster and JD Vance isn't Rib Portman

He is a Trumpian, an auther that isn't tested by Ryan in Debate, and DeSantis and Rubio haven't been Scrutinized in debate and Crist and Demings or Grayson are fierce debators


Don't forget the last time Rs won an Election was 2016/ Trump lost the PVI in 2014 and used WikiLeaks to defeat Benghazi Hillary, but Debbie Wasserman lost the election for Hillary, without Debbie, Hillary would have won

Trump won FL H, IA, NC and FL before the Insurrectionists, those states have single female, Minorities BLK, Asian, Latinos and Arabs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So much for an R wave after AFGHANISTAN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I mean, D+1-R+3 is all within the MoE, so given the coverage, I don't see current movement from R+1 in July to R+3 now as that damaging. Certainly not something that can't be clawed back from when we're currently in one of the worst news cycles of Biden's presidency.

In June things were looking very good for Biden on most fronts, so the fact that it was only D+1 at that point tells you something.

https://twitter.com/brentbuc/status/1432382904894697472

A 17K survey sample? Absolute garbage.

Nate Silver says it's a 304 map anyways FL, NC, IA and OH are Lean R anyways with Voter Suppression


FOLLOW NATE SILVER ITS NOT D PLUS 7 IEother TS D PLUS 3=5 PIKE IT WAS ELECTION NIGHT 2020


It's was a 304 R map in 2016/it was a 304 D map 2018/2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's did Ng high

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even more reason why Fink needs to get her campaign going to help in IA 3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Remington polled the generic congressional ballot in seven competitive US House districts:

https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/AAN-September-Polling-Memo.pdf

CA-10 (Harder) - 49% Republican/42% Democrat
FL-07 (Murphy) - 48% R/45% D
IA-03 (Axne) - 51% R/42% D
MI-08 (Slotkin) - 52% R/43% D
MI-11 (Stevens) - 51% R/45% D
VA-02 (Luria) - 49% R/46% D
WA-08 (Schrier) - 49% R/45% D
Average - 50% Republican/44% Democrat

Junk it. This poll is filled with loaded questions.

Q: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Liberal-led spending has already raised record price increases for working families. Spending $3.5 trillion for a liberal wish list will only make the rising costs families face even worse.

You have D's winning in NC, OH, and FL, lol it's not happen Biden polls are the same as Trump was in 2018, 45 percent not 59 percent on par to lose the H and keep the Senate, you can juki the polls you like


Nate Silver says that D's will lose the H but keep a 51/48 Senate and GA goes to a Runoff, that's reality

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

House is gone in 2032, T Mac is losing by 2 pts, further proof it's not gonna be a blue wave looking more like 2014

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

365 Days til the Election and we are still reading polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How will it be a high Republican turnout and Biden got 80M votes compared to Trump 70M and it's VBM, that's why Newsom will win with 60%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 304 map, but the NH, NV Senate polls are ridiculously not true CCM and Hassan aren't losing by 10pts Biden support never wanted in a single county

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-best-tool-for-predicting-midterm-elections-doesnt-show-a-republican-wave-but-history-is-on-the-gops-side/
Our Best Tool For Predicting Midterm Elections Doesn’t Show A Republican Wave — But History Is On The GOP’s Side


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

It's not 2022/ it's 2021 wait til next spring when we on w what Polls will look like

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So much for Rs sweeping IA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So much for Rs sweeping IA

Way to early to pop the corks on this one.

Republicans typically under poll in Iowa, even the Selzer poll underestimates by a little.

Lol it's 14  mnths til the Election do you guys think Grassley is gonna win by 20 no, he ran against Judge in 2016/ he isn't gonna win that easy

But as I said on another thread Rs think IA, MN, WI, OH are IN and MO


Election Guy comes on every month and says Barnes is a weak candidate and Rs are a shoe in for WI and Tammy Baldwin WI by 10 pts

Lol WI voted for every D Prez except Kennedy


Tammy Baldwin is way to the left of Barnes whom was Elected statewide as Lt Gov and Johnson is tied not leading in last poll, just because it's an internal Johnson is leading PLSE
.
Tim Ryan is tied in a poll against Rs not down by 20, Vance and MANDEL aren't Rob Portman

TX is IN with Beto gaffe prone

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol it's 14  mnths til the Election

Hence why I said way too early to be opening the the celebratory round of drinks.

do you guys think Grassley is gonna win by 20 no, he ran against Judge in 2016/ he isn't gonna win that easy

Actually, I think Grassley will end up somewhere around 60% yes, maybe a hair under.

Iowa has been brutal for the Democrats ever since 2013, and it is a very nativist state too.

There have been times before when popular Representative runs for Senate and then gets destroyed, because once again, "Cyclical politics is a thing".

But as I said on another thread Rs think IA, MN, WI, OH are IN and MO

My name is not "Rs", my name is Yankee, North Carolina Yankee.  

To your point, IA is not MN or WI also. IA and OH are there own class between IN/MO and WI/MI/PA. I have never said otherwise and you would do well to NOT put words of other people into my mouth ever again.

Election Guy comes on every month and says Barnes is a weak candidate and Rs are a shoe in for WI and Tammy Baldwin WI by 10 pts

I like ElectionGuy just fine, but I am NC Yankee.

Lol WI voted for every D Prez except Kennedy

Meaningless historical anecdote 15151512521

Tammy Baldwin is way to the left of Barnes whom was Elected statewide as Lt Gov and Johnson is tied not leading in last poll, just because it's an internal Johnson is leading PLSE

What does this have to do with what we are talking about?
.

Tim Ryan is tied in a poll against Rs not down by 20, Vance and MANDEL aren't Rob Portman

"Portman is not Voinovich, there is no way he can win Ohio in Bush's recession. He was Bush's trade representative. He is going to get destroyed".

Again what does this have to do with Iowa.

TX is IN with Beto gaffe prone

What is this, what even is this?

Grassley is not winning by 60% Finks not Patty Judge, Biden Approvals aren't gonna be 31% in 2022 COVID cases are leaving ,, Biden Approvals will go up


He beat Patty Judge in 2016 by 60% IA and OH weren't contested by Hillary she foregone IA and OH in lieu of FL with Murphy, she spent most of her time in FL



Biden only has to be at 50% or higher by Election to avoid Losing the H and it's 14 mnths