SC - Clemson: Clinton +50

[Holmes]

http://newsstand.clemson.edu/mediarelations/clinton-will-win-by-wide-margin-in-south-carolina-palmetto-poll-shows/

Clinton 64
Sanders 14

Feb 20 - 25, 650 polled, MoE +/- 3%.

It's a university poll. But consistent with Clinton being up 30-40% in other Southern states like Georgia and Texas. So.

[Holmes]

I wonder why University polls underestimate the losing candidate most of the time? Clinton is for sure probably at 64%, but Sanders at 14% is just such an embarrassing thing to publish.

[Holmes]

I wonder why University polls underestimate the losing candidate most of the time? Clinton is for sure probably at 64%, but Sanders at 14% is just such an embarrassing thing to publish.

Well this is a trash poll but since it overestimates Clinton you couldn't help but to publish it.

I didn't publish this poll.

[Holmes]

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So the result isn't ridiculous. But, as it's not meant to include all likely voters, I'm not sure why the aggregators are even including this one.

So this poll excludes anyone under 22 years old? The youth are like 80%+ Sanders voters...

They're excluded if they're indicated that they don't plan to vote in the primary. Otherwise they're included.

[Holmes]

Notice:

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So the result isn't ridiculous. But, as it's not meant to include all likely voters, I'm not sure why the aggregators are even including this one.

So this poll excludes anyone under 22 years old? The youth are like 80%+ Sanders voters...

They're excluded if they're indicated that they don't plan to vote in the primary. Otherwise they're included.

The exvlusion wuoted above sers forth two parameters--intention to vote AND voting history. Young voters by virtue of a ge have no voting history.

I read it as the poll includes 1) people who say they're likely to vote in this election and 2) have voted in the last two out of three statewide primaries. But yeah, the wording is pretty vague and it won't matter in 7 hours anyway.

[Holmes]

Heh.

[Holmes]

To be fair, no polling caught this except for this one. You can make an argument that the 40% or 50% margins in the recent Georgia and Texas polls could have been foreshadowing this, but still.