PA-08 (GQR-Cartwright internal): Cartwright +6

[wesmoorenerd]

I'm rather confused at this take.

"Cartwright, a known incumbent, is ahead of Bognet, who is also known, and has been running ads for months now without any response from Bognet, but yes as soon Bognet starts running ads (when will that be?) he will 100% take the lead!"

Just seems nonsensical at this point. If anything, Cartwright has been able to boost himself and hurt Bognet for months and we're supposed to believe that's supposed to change just bc Bognet starts airing some ads?

https://twitter.com/HWLavelleMaps/status/1559564138032111616

I feel like every cycle there's some Election Twitter outfit that gets extremely confident in their model and defends it in the face of any evidence to the contrary. Last time it was Scrimshaw, this time it's the Split Ticket guys. I respect them and they have some good takes here and there but they shouldn't get too cocky.

[wesmoorenerd]

An old Elections Guy post said that if Cartwright wins, Democrats keep the House. Is this indeed the bellwether seat for the evening?

I think OH-13 and CO-08 have good claims as bellwether seats, as both are open seats with solid candidates on both sides that are very close to the median seat by baseline partisanship.