What is it that the Islamic revolutionaries in late 1970s Iran had that today's Green Movement doesn't have?
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Iranian opposition demoralized after failed protests at revolution's anniversaryBy Thomas Erdbrink
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, February 20, 2010TEHRAN -- The opposition supporters nervously smoked cigarettes in the kitchen as loud music blared from the empty living room. A student, a businessman, a writer and an artist had planned a victory party but instead were mourning their defeat.
"It's all over," said the student, a young woman in a sleek black dress. "Our only option is to leave the country."
After their planned show of strength largely fizzled Feb. 11 in the face of heavy security for state-sponsored celebrations of the Islamic revolution's 31st anniversary, activists in Iran's political opposition have been left demoralized, wondering how to revive a movement that many hoped would lead to a more open society, greater personal freedoms and fairer elections.
Those attending the dissidents' get-together contemplated the reasons for their defeat as they sought to answer the question, "What now?" Some admitted that they had been afraid to join anti-government protests scheduled to coincide with the anniversary rallies. Others said they had tried to go but faced thousands of armed security forces who blocked streets. All agreed that the opposition's failure to make an impact during the state-backed demonstrations represented a huge blow for the grass-roots movement. Each spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution.
Opposition expectations for Feb. 11 had run high, with leaders calling for a "huge presence." Anti-government Web sites speculated that millions of people would turn out to denounce President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his influential supporters among Iran's hard-line clerics and generals.
But by sentencing protesters to death, blocking Internet sites and foreign satellite transmissions and deploying thousands of security forces, authorities managed to stop the opposition from commandeering the largest state-sponsored street gathering of the year. The government's strategy might eventually backfire, but for the time being, it has served to justify authorities' dismissal of the opposition as a meaningless band of foreign-backed counterrevolutionary rioters.
This security formula will almost certainly be used in the future, analysts said, thwarting the opposition's signature tactic of turning official street celebrations into anti-government rallies. "It was impossible to join up with other protesters," the student at the party said as she tried to reconstruct what went wrong. "There were just too many security forces."
