2016 Congressional Primaries

[publicunofficial]

Indianapolis Star says Young wins.

Congratulations Young!

Booooo

... Did you just actually boo a candidate for winning by 15-20%+?

JCL only likes candidates that put Safe races in danger.


Also Yoder vs. Hollingsworth is going to be a sleeper competitive race. Yoder ran an amazing campaign in 2012.

[publicunofficial]

Am I alone as a Republican who is perfectly fine with Banks but who would have serious reservations about Hollingsworth if he lived in that district?

I think Hollingsworth/Yoder starts out as Leans R at best, by the way, and Yoder has a very real chance at pulling this off.

Yoder ran 5 points ahead of Obama in 2012, with Todd Young being a strong incumbent. Hollingsworth is a carpetbagger who moved from Tennessee last year.

The main problem for Yoder is even Richard Mourdock carried IN-09.

[publicunofficial]

I see JCL has learned nothing from last night.

JCL hasn't learned something from an election since ~~2005

[publicunofficial]

RIP Chip Maxwell - Don Bacon smashed him in NE-2 by a two to one margin. Bacon strikes me as the more electable candidate, and if this were a normal year I think Ashford loses easily.

Ashford has been doing everything right, including stepping up his fundraising game and not giving Omaha businesses a real reason to be against him. With Trump and presidential turnout, I can still see him holding on. No better than Toss-Up though.

[publicunofficial]

There was a GOP primary debate in NC-02 last night.

Renee Ellmers defended Obama's immigration executive order, attacked the Club for Growth, ACU, and Heritage Foundation, and defended her support of the 2013 Senate immigration bill. I admire her sticking to her guns, but she's done.

Greg Brannon, on another note, called for disbanding the US Military because he believes that state militias should fight ISIS.

[publicunofficial]

There was a GOP primary debate in NC-02 last night.

Renee Ellmers defended Obama's immigration executive order, attacked the Club for Growth, ACU, and Heritage Foundation, and defended her support of the 2013 Senate immigration bill. I admire her sticking to her guns, but she's done.

Greg Brannon, on another note, called for disbanding the US Military because he believes that state militias should fight ISIS.

Not CURRENT state militias obviously. Brannon wants each state to have it's own de facto army, with the USA's nuclear stockpile distributed among them. So it's even more crazy than you think.

He also is firmly against the idea of compulsory education, or public schools in general; believes the US in it's current form is a Marxist dystopia, that Upton Sinclair's The Jungle was pure propaganda to convince Americans into government regulation, and that the states should have the power to nullify laws and ignore the Supreme Court.

When he ran for Senate last cycle, he was endorsed by Ron Paul, Rand Paul, Mike Lee, Thomas Massie, FreedomWorks, and Ann Coulter.

[publicunofficial]

Are any of the new NC districts (other than the Dem-held 1st, 4th, and 12th) competitive? Has Cook released new PVI's for them?

The most competitive one is NC-13 at only 55% Romney, but even that's Safe R most years.

[publicunofficial]

Very little in (just 2%), but Monica Vernon is absolutely punishing Pat Murphy, 74-26. With 29% in IA-3, Mowrer is out to a 49-38 lead over Sherzan. And with 10% in IA-4, King is out to a 59-41 lead over Bertrand.

With 16% counted in the Senate race, Judge is out to a 46-40 lead over Hogg. Kinda embarrassing for the favored DNC recruit, but what can you do, and a win is a win.

Looks like the best candidates prevailed in all 3 races for Democrats.

[publicunofficial]

Glad at the CA-24, CA-25 results. Hope Huerta pulls through in CA-21 but I suspect the DCCC isn't prioritizing the district either way.

[publicunofficial]

Anything known on the status of Ami Bera? Couldn't find results for his district.

Ahead of Scott Jones 52-48 in primary.

[publicunofficial]

Anything known on the status of Ami Bera? Couldn't find results for his district.

Ahead of Scott Jones 52-48 in primary.

Interesting. I guess (unless Jones attacks him HARD on his troubles) this seat is out of reach for Republicans this year. The NRCC should just not spend money campaign thin Califronia this year, period.

Bera is the one D incumbent I could see losing this year, with Rick Nolan a distant second. If the Republicans are going on the offense at all this year, they have to target it.

[publicunofficial]

Can't say I'll miss seeing Randy Forbes go.

[publicunofficial]

90% of this district is new to Forbes so this isn't much of a surprise

Doesn't bode well for Dan Webster.

[publicunofficial]

"Ultra-Hawk" would play well in VA-02. Big military district.

[publicunofficial]

D+2

[publicunofficial]

What is wrong with NV? It is not acceptable to have only 23% of the state counted more than two hours after poll closing.

I miss two years ago when we had Cantor's loss to entertain us while we waited for Nevada.

[publicunofficial]

As more votes come in from California, Emilio Huerta now has a 797 vote lead over the less-impressive Daniel Parra in CA-21. David Valadao's share of the primary vote has dropped to 55.8%.

[publicunofficial]

Wished Dems had seriously recruited for the 22nd in New York - currently Tenney is leading Wells 46-45. Tenney is super far-right - this is an R+3 district. Wells has the endorsement of current incumbent Richard Hanna, very moderate Republican who withdrew because he knew he'd probably lose to Tenney in a re-match.

They did, they're running Kim Myers.

A joke candidate

Tenney's the only joke in that district, friend.

[publicunofficial]

Anyone hyping up Glenn should read this first.

[publicunofficial]

Amazing results in the NY-10 primary. Nadler has been facing a primary challenge over his support for the Iran deal, and his opponent was even endorsed by the NY Post.

Nadler is crushing his opponent 89-11, but is losing the Brooklyn portion of his district 94-6.

[publicunofficial]

Snow is a transgender woman who works as a Wal-Mart cashier. Either she ran a very good campaign, or Swinton ran a terrible one.

[publicunofficial]

I hope Walkinshaw wins. #NeverJayapal

Again, I cannnot stress this enough, Walkinshaw and Jayapal are exactly as liberal as each other. Jayapal is not a socialist, you are probably confusing her with the other Indian-American woman in Seattle politics.

In any case, I hope whoever loses the general runs again for another race. Seattle Mayor maybe.

like with Shuster, Republican primary voters prove that they don't care about corruption.

but with the defeats of Huelskamp and Forbes, they seem to be moving in a less right-wing direction. Huh.

Forbes tried running in a district he'd never represented before, and Huelskamp repeatedly voted against local interests. Neither lost because they were too conservative.

[publicunofficial]

I'm fine with either outcome of the FL-23 race. Either DWS loses, which is fine because I don't like DWS, or Canova loses, which is fine because he's a hawkish Berniebro.