2016 Congressional Primaries

[136or142]

So are the rules the same for House primaries where the person has to get above 40% in order to avoid a primary?

Normally yes, but for this cycle only the legislature has waived the requirement (the House primaries were delayed by redistricting to the normal runoff date, today, and they decided not to pay for later elections). 21% will be an outright victory for Budd if that's all first place takes.

Are you sure about that?

From politics1:
JULY 12, 2016:
Delaware - Filing Deadline (Major Parties)
Georgia - Filing Deadline (Minor Parties & Independents)
North Carolina - Primary Runoff

[Vosem]

Every county in NC-13 is finished but Guilford, and Ted Budd is leading Julia Howard 21-11. Guilford, which is only 62% in, is not a favorable county for Budd; he's in third place there at just 15, behind John Blust at 25 countywide (8 district-wide) and Hank Henning at 20 countywide (8 district-wide as well). I would say Budd is approaching the point, in spite of the very low percentage of the vote he's received, where his margin and the pattern of the outstanding vote justify a checkmark; Blust may end up in second place when all is said and done but I can't see him making up a 13-point deficit based on what's left.

With Pittenger up 1% or 162 votes over Harris in NC-9, and most of what's left looking decently Harris-favorable, the folks there have decided to take a ganja break. This one could conceivably still be unclear long after tonight is done.

[Vosem]

So are the rules the same for House primaries where the person has to get above 40% in order to avoid a primary?

Normally yes, but for this cycle only the legislature has waived the requirement (the House primaries were delayed by redistricting to the normal runoff date, today, and they decided not to pay for later elections). 21% will be an outright victory for Budd if that's all first place takes.

Are you sure about that?

From politics1:
JULY 12, 2016:
Delaware - Filing Deadline (Major Parties)
Georgia - Filing Deadline (Minor Parties & Independents)
North Carolina - Primary Runoff

RRH and DKE both told me that was the case. I did not personally read the law that the NC legislature passed.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Leonard Lance wins NJ-7 R. Albio Sires NJ-8 D. Bonnie Watson Coleman NJ-12 D.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Rodney Frelinghuysen wins NJ-11 R. Joseph Wenzel NJ-11 D.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Leon Threatt wins NC-12 R. Ted Budd NC-13 R.

[136or142]

US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES DISTRICT 2 - REP (VOTE FOR 1)
Precincts Reported: 158 of 158   
View Contest Details
NAME ON BALLOT   PARTY   BALLOT COUNT   PERCENT
George Holding   REP   16,999   53.38%
Renee Ellmers   REP   7,527   23.64%
Greg Brannon   REP   7,320   22.99%


Little known North Carolina election law: if the winner receives under 17,000 votes, the primary has to be re held.   (j/k)

[Vosem]

Leon Threatt wins NC-12 R. Ted Budd NC-13 R.

Very happy with my boy Budd getting the checkmark! He's up 20-10 over Julia Howard right now, with every other candidate in single digits -- so 70% of the vote was cast for people who ended up under 10. If it stays that way (prolly won't because of Guilford County, ugh) I'd have to imagine that would be a record.

In NC-9, Mecklenburg is now 100% in. The last precinct was actually bad for Pittenger; it lowered his lead to 135 votes, 35-34, over Harris. All 8 remaining precincts out are in Robeson and Scotland Counties; Pittenger is in third-place in both counties, and Harris is dominating Robeson. Actually a very exciting race here.

EDIT: A break for Pittenger; Scotland County had no precincts out and was merely mis-reported. Means there're just 3 precincts left in heavily-Harris Robeson to make up a 135-vote deficit with Pittenger.

[Pandaguineapig]

In the first results Hogg is leading in Iowa, probably won't last but it would be hilarious not see the recruit that dems said would punish Grassly fall to a no-name

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Judge up 46-39 now in IA.

[Vosem]

If the precincts in Robeson County are the same size as the average ones already counted, Harris would make up 14 votes on Pittenger, leaving Pittenger with a 121-vote lead on Harris. Thus, we can say that Pittenger has probably come out as the winner, barring some recount/missing votes found somewhere. Considering he's an incumbent at just 35% of the vote, he's going to have sights on him 2 years from now.

First results coming in from Iowa. Judge leads Hogg in the D Senate primary, 47-44, with serious geographic differences in the counties below; too ignorant to explain who they're good for or what they mean. In swing district IA-3, businessman Mike Sherzan is leading veteran and unsuccessful IA-4 2014 candidate Jim Mowrer 44-43 in the D primary; this one'll go down to the wire. Steve King is leading his primary challenger, state Senator Rick Bertrand, who essentially ran to protest King's endorsement of Ted Cruz in the Republican primary, 58-42; while the margin is narrow King is leading in every county currently reporting, and not by particularly disparate margins so geography may end up a poor explanation of what goes on in this district.

[Maxwell]

Sad day for sane Iowans, Bertrand trails 60-40.

[Vosem]

Sad day for sane Iowans, Bertrand trails 60-40.

I would normally be entirely in agreement with you, but since the whole point of Bertrand's candidacy is to refight Cruz's win in Iowa, with King put in the role of Cruz, I'd have to support King just this once, until he gets a primary challenger who attacks him for his faults rather than his strengths.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final NJ races: Frederick LaVergne wins NJ-3 D. Scott Garrett wins NJ-5 R.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Judge up 46-40 with 10% in.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

David Young wins IA-3 R.

[Vosem]

Very little in (just 2%), but Monica Vernon is absolutely punishing Pat Murphy, 74-26. With 29% in IA-3, Mowrer is out to a 49-38 lead over Sherzan. And with 10% in IA-4, King is out to a 59-41 lead over Bertrand.

With 16% counted in the Senate race, Judge is out to a 46-40 lead over Hogg. Kinda embarrassing for the favored DNC recruit, but what can you do, and a win is a win.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Steve Bullock renominated for MT D Gov. Gianforte leading 77-23 so far but no call.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Additional winners:

NC-5 R: Virginia Foxx
NC-9 R: Robert Pittenger
NC-11 D: Rick Bryson
NC-13 D: Bruce Davis

That wraps up North Carolina. Still waiting on most of the Iowa Races, MT R Gov, NM-03 R, and CA.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Steve King wins IA-4 R. Another big victory for incumbents.

[publicunofficial]

Very little in (just 2%), but Monica Vernon is absolutely punishing Pat Murphy, 74-26. With 29% in IA-3, Mowrer is out to a 49-38 lead over Sherzan. And with 10% in IA-4, King is out to a 59-41 lead over Bertrand.

With 16% counted in the Senate race, Judge is out to a 46-40 lead over Hogg. Kinda embarrassing for the favored DNC recruit, but what can you do, and a win is a win.

Looks like the best candidates prevailed in all 3 races for Democrats.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Gianforte will be the R nominee for Montana Governor.

[Vosem]

With all precincts reporting in NC-9, Pittenger leads Harris 35-34. He's in third-place everywhere except for his home county of Mecklenburg, where he crushed. His winning margin is 142 votes. Look for him to get challenged again in 2018 -- RRH suggests that, at 70 and having earned a congressional pension by that point, Pittenger may simply retire then. This is not a redistricting-affiliated challenge -- a large majority of the district was Pittenger's originally.

No meaningful changes have occurred in any of the Iowa races. Steve King has a checkmark.

[rob in cal]

  Exciting that Walter Jones won so easily. Hopefully this will discourage future challengers.  Though Trump endorsed Ellmers, her defeat means one less likely GOP vote for any immigration surge/gang of 8 type legislation.

[Vosem]

Monica Vernon gets the checkmark in IA-1; one of the best Democratic pickup opportunities in the country. Still no non-presidential numbers out of CA.