NC: Research 2000 (D): Dole under 50% against Hagan and Neal

[Adlai Stevenson]

Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 10:41:17 AM PST

[Bumped again -- kos]

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 12/16-18. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Kay Hagan, the Democrat, and Elizabeth Dole, the Republican?

Dole (R) 46
Hagan (D) 39

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Jim Neal, the Democrat, and Elizabeth Dole, the Republican?

Dole (R) 47
Neal (D) 37

Just a seven-point deficit by Hagan, and a 10-point one for Neal, both of them keeping Dole under 50? With the low name ID of the two Democrats, what these results say is that North Carolina voters aren't sold on a second term for Dole, and are willing to give the Democrat a good look. No matter who emerges from the Democratic primary, this is going to be a real race.

Full results below the fold.

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NORTH CAROLINA POLL RESULTS - DECEMBER 2007

The Research 2000 North Carolina Poll was conducted from December 16 through December 18, 2007. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone. 

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                 288   (48%)             
Women               312   (52%)
Democrats           252   (42%)   
Republicans         228   (38%)   
Independents/Other  120   (20%)
18-29                90   (15%)
30-44               198   (33%)
45-59               185   (31%)
60+                 127   (21%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kay Hagan? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                    VERY                   VERY
                    FAV    FAV    UNFAV    UNFAV   NO OPINION 

ALL                  8%     31%     16%      7%     38%

MEN                  7%     29%     19%      9%     36%
WOMEN                9%     33%     13%      5%     40%
DEMOCRATS           12%     46%      7%      3%     32%
REPUBLICANS          4%     15%     26%     13%     42%
INDEPENDENTS         7%     28%     15%      4%     46%
18-29               11%     35%     12%      3%     39%
30-44                7%     29%     18%      9%     37%
45-59                8%     30%     17%      7%     38%
60+                  8%     31%     16%      7%     38%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jim Neal? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                    VERY                   VERY
                    FAV    FAV    UNFAV    UNFAV   NO OPINION 

ALL                  6%     28%     18%      9%     39%

MEN                  5%     27%     21%     10%     37%
WOMEN                7%     29%     15%      8%     41%
DEMOCRATS            9%     42%      9%      4%     36%
REPUBLICANS          3%     14%     27%     16%     40%
INDEPENDENTS         5%     26%     18%      6%     45%
18-29                9%     32%     15%      6%     38%
30-44                5%     26%     20%     12%     37%
45-59                5%     27%     19%      9%     40%
60+                  6%     27%     18%      8%     41%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Elizabeth Dole? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                    VERY                   VERY
                    FAV    FAV    UNFAV    UNFAV   NO OPINION 

ALL                 17%     29%     21%     17%     16%

MEN                 18%     31%     20%     16%     15%
WOMEN               16%     27%     22%     18%     17%
DEMOCRATS           10%     18%     31%     28%     13%
REPUBLICANS         26%     41%     12%      6%     15%
INDEPENDENTS        15%     30%     18%     16%     21%
18-29               13%     26%     25%     19%     17%
30-44               19%     31%     19%     15%     16%
45-59               18%     30%     20%     16%     16%
60+                 17%     30%     21%     17%     15%

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QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Kay Hagan, the Democrat, and Elizabeth Dole, the Republican?

                  DOLE        HAGAN         UNDECIDED       

ALL                 46%         39%         15%

MEN                 49%         36%         15%
WOMEN               43%         42%         15%
DEMOCRATS           13%         67%         20%
REPUBLICANS         85%          7%          8%
INDEPENDENTS        41%         38%         21%
18-29               39%         45%         16%
30-44               49%         37%         14%
45-59               47%         38%         15%
60+                 46%         39%         15%


QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Jim Neal, the Democrat, and Elizabeth Dole, the Republican?

                  DOLE         NEAL          UNDECIDED       

ALL                 47%         37%         16%

MEN                 49%         36%         15%
WOMEN               45%         38%         17%
DEMOCRATS           14%         64%         22%
REPUBLICANS         85%          7%          8%
INDEPENDENTS        44%         37%         19%
18-29               39%         43%         18%
30-44               50%         35%         15%
45-59               48%         36%         16%
60+                 48%         38%         14%


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?

                  APPROVE     DISAPPROVE    NOT SURE       

ALL                 42%         57%          1%

MEN                 46%         54%          -%
WOMEN               38%         60%          2%
DEMOCRATS           11%         88%          1%
REPUBLICANS         78%         22%          -%
INDEPENDENTS        40%         58%          2%
18-29               36%         63%          1%
30-44               44%         55%          1%
45-59               43%         56%          1%
60+                 42%         57%          1%

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/12/19/1219/2172/829/424295

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Better than I'd expect for Hagan/Neal, but then again, it is a partisan poll.  Besides, I just don't see Democrats being able to win a NC Senate race in a Presidential year.

[TheresNoMoney]

It's not a partisan poll.

[Alcon]

It's not a partisan poll.

It was done for DailyKos, and it's not a partisan poll?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It's not a partisan poll.

Of course it is.

[Padfoot]

It's not a partisan poll.

lol

[TheresNoMoney]

DailyKos has been polling races for a few months now, and almost all of the results have shown the Democratic candidates doing worse than in polls from other firms (SurveyUSA, Rasmussen, etc.). Why would Markos pay for a poll out of his own pocket in order to get biased results? What good would that be?

You guys can think what you want. Almost everyone on this board accepts the conventional wisdom without giving things any real thought.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Why would Markos pay for a poll out of his own pocket in order to get biased results? What good would that be?

Why would a liberal blog want to post a poll where liberals are doing well?  I just don't get it! 

Partisan polls are adjusted because an unintentional-but-client-pleasing bias can get into the numbers.

I will, of course, grant that they shouldn't be adjusted as much as the traditional "partisan poll" if Markos is to be believed that he's releasing all polling data, and not just the polling data that looks good.