2016: Romney versus Sanders

[President Biden Democrat]

Romney would likely lose to Sanders. Most Republican candidates would have lost in 2016, against Clinton. Sanders overall is a stronger candidate than she is. I'd see Sanders winning by a margin of 303 electoral votes by winning every state Obama won in 2012, except for Florida.

[President Biden Democrat]

Romney would likely lose to Sanders. Most Republican candidates would have lost in 2016, against Clinton. Sanders overall is a stronger candidate than she is. I'd see Sanders winning by a margin of 303 electoral votes by winning every state Obama won in 2012, except for Florida.

While yes, Bernie would be a particularly horrible fit for Florida, he wouldn’t do much better in other swing states.

I am amazed this myth that Bernie somehow had some kind of special appeal to the rust belt or the WWC persists even though he was decisively defeated by these voters in these places in the primaries this year. It is more clear than ever that his relative strengths there in 2016 were almost exclusively the result of “Not Hillary” voters.

Bernie's approval is definitely being overstated but Romney would not be able to beat him. I don't think that Romney would be able to win the midwest. Trump who had a lot of appeal to the midwest won in those states by less than 1 percent. I think that Bernie would have won. He also would have been able to hold on to Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Nevada as well. It'd be a close election but Bernie would beat Romney.

[President Biden Democrat]

Romney: 258
Sanders: 253
Toss-up: 27 (OH and CO, I can't pick which way they would go)
R flips from 2012: NH, VA, FL, NV


I think the populist, anti-Wall Street campaign Sanders ran in 2016 would have been particularly effective against Romney. Basically, Sanders would get to run an anti-establishment campaign, because even though he represented the party in power, Romney is the personification of the American elite: WASP (or WASM I guess), wealthy, worked in the finance industry, perfectly slicked hair and a LinkedIn photo smile. I think the Sanders campaign would have taken a very populist turn, and it would have held its primary coalition of young leftists and the WWC.

But this kind of brash populism will be countered by the fact that he's a socialist, and older people will break heavily for Romney. Many upscale suburban democrats would either sit this election out, or vote for Romney. In Florida, Bernie would be DOA. I think Connecticut would get dangerously close, and New Jersey will be competitive. And if the Sanders campaign becomes aggressively populist, it will turn off many liberals. And of course, the Romney campaign would be much better financed.

I don't agree with this. I don't really think that Romney would be able to win NV & CO. Also don't think Romney would win NH. Sanders is from the Northeast and would have broad appeal to that area of the country. I do think Sanders would win this election.

Sanders: 285 √
Romney: 253