West Virginia

[Miles]

Almost no question Manchin gets the Governorship if he wants it; one of the sages at RRH (actually one of my favorites), Shamlet, is from WV and seems to agree.

Tennant ran about equally ahead of Obama in WV-03 as she did behind him in WV-02. Yes, Capito had some effect on that, but I think Manchin should appoint someone from the Charleston area. It would seem the Democrat will be guaranteed at least some crossover support in the coal areas, which are also casting fewer votes.

OTOH, its quite amazing how poorly Rahall ran in his 'base' counties in WV-03, so if Jenkins ran, he could kill much of that crossover support.

[Miles]

^ I was assuming whomever he appoints would run in 2018 (like with Hawaii last year, Schatz getting to serve two years via appointment). Duh, states laws vary; I should have checked.

This is what the state Constitution says:

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The NCSL says that Manchin's appointee would run in the next regular general election, which supports my Hawaii analogy.

[Miles]

^ Oklahoma is literally the only state where the special election takes places when the Senator is still in office.