Saskatchewan provincial election 2015/2016 (more likely in 2016)

[Hatman 🍁]

Wonder if Brad Wall being an ass lately will effect his numbers or not. Can't possibly get any more popular, I'd say.

[Hatman 🍁]

Apropos of nothing, there has NEVER been a Canadian PM who was ever a provincial premier. Every provincial premier who has taken a stab at federal politics has flopped.

This has always striked me as odd. Any idea as to why? Is it the language issue? Is it that Premiers are usually unpopular by the time they leave office, thereby ruining a chance to jump to federal politics? If Wall remains popular, that wouldn't be an issue.

Wall doesn't have to be that proficient in French, I think. He doesn't have to master the language by 2017; he would have to be somewhat fluent by 2019 though, if he wins the leadership.

[Hatman 🍁]

Big fish in smaller ponds out of their depth in an ocean.

I don't think this argument carries any weight. One can say the same thing about governors in the US, and they have still been elected to the Presidency, for example.

[Hatman 🍁]

Seat projections are also hampered by re-distribution with 3 new seats (2 in Saskatoon and 1 in Regina) and all other riding's but Cumberland and Athabasca being redrawn to some extent.
Is there anyone who can extrapolate the 2011 votes into the 2016 Districts?

I've already done this. I'll be posting something next week.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ugh. SK NDP wants to reduce the number of seats. So the next time the Sask Party gets 60%, they can be assured of getting wiped out entirely (save for maybe the two northern seats)

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, and if they made those two northern seats any larger, they could be in play in a wave election.

Fairly disappointed with that policy plank. Reducing legislature size is not a social democratic policy. It's a right wing populist move. Luckily for the Sask NDP, there is not a strong Liberal Party to take away left wing voters.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't see the size of a legislature as a right/left issue. Harper added 30 seats to the House of Commons I guess he was a raving socialist! There should be some sort of formula or principle for how many people there are per seat within reason. Why should Saskatchewan have fewer citizens per riding than Manitoba

A stopped clock is right twice a day.

Anyways, more bad news for the Sask NDP, their campaign manager, Frank Quennell was sacked.

[Hatman 🍁]

This is how every election is going to be for the foreseeable future until we get used to it. More and more candidates are going to have extended social media foot prints.

It's going to get to the point where I'd be more concerned about candidates not having a footprint at all, or being too squeaky clean. Do we really want to elect robots?

[Hatman 🍁]

As promised, here is the redistribution of the 2011 election: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2016/03/saskatchewans-new-electoral-map.html

[Hatman 🍁]

My prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2016/04/swingometer-based-prediction-of.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Remarkable how similar the polls have been

[Hatman 🍁]

Watching CTV for obvious reasons

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP doing a bit better than expected.

[Hatman 🍁]

lol CBC

[Hatman 🍁]

Net change of 0 seats with a grant total swing of wait for it... 0.00% (0.004% to the NDP to be exact).

[Hatman 🍁]

Two party swing:



Massive swing in Lloydminister and northwest Saskatchewan in general. I'm assuming they are feeling the benefits of the resource based economy.

In Saskatoon, Broten's seat sticks out like a sore thumb.

Looks like the NDP didn't target the right seats. Moose Jaw Wakamow should've been winnable, same with Saskatoon Fairview. They obviously did target Regina Douglas Park, which saw the largest NDP swing. Saskatoon University also saw a decent swing, but it wasn't enough for the NDP to win it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Possible... the MLA in Lloydminster was elected in a recent by-election, so possibly still enjoying a honeymoon. Of interest though, the by-election had a similar result to the 2011 general election.

It's also a border community with Alberta, so perhaps it's also an anti-(Alberta) NDP vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

That explains the swing in southeast Saskatchewan too.

Kindersley probably would have seen a similar swing if it weren't for a strong independent candidate. The NDP% dropped a lot, but the indy (former SP MLA) took a lot from the SP swing.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ehh, the Liberal vote wasn't particularly high in Westview. Don't think Anwar played spoiler at all. Still though, the Sask NDP needs to do some rebuilding, if there's that many internal issues...