There's a very specific sort of incumbent victory that has a certain rather shabby feel about it isn't there?
Anyway, if we compare the provisional results to the final polls, if we accept that minor deviations are to be expected, then it's really only three parties with polling scores that look very clearly *wrong*: Likud, Jewish Home and Yachad. And that's the election explained, or something.
That's right. According to the last polls I've seen in Wikipedia, the right-religious bloc was expected to get between 55-57 and the left-Arab bloc 41-44. That's exactly what happened (though it ended up in the higher end for the former and the lower end for the latter). Most transfers have been internal to blocs.
THe problem with this analysis is that these blocs don't really exist. Had ZU beaten Likud decisively they would have had a decent shot at roping in Kulanu and/or Shas/UTJ and form a government.
