Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Antonio the Sixth]

What the f**k is wrong with this country.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So the right (including orthodox parties) will have 57 seats, the left (including the Arabs) 42, and the center 21?

[Antonio the Sixth]

There's a very specific sort of incumbent victory that has a certain rather shabby feel about it isn't there?

Anyway, if we compare the provisional results to the final polls, if we accept that minor deviations are to be expected, then it's really only three parties with polling scores that look very clearly *wrong*: Likud, Jewish Home and Yachad. And that's the election explained, or something.

That's right. According to the last polls I've seen in Wikipedia, the right-religious bloc was expected to get between 55-57 and the left-Arab bloc 41-44. That's exactly what happened (though it ended up in the higher end for the former and the lower end for the latter). Most transfers have been internal to blocs.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What is Kulanu's position regarding settlements and the peace process? And on economic policy? Any chance that they could be an effective moderating force?

[Antonio the Sixth]

There's a very specific sort of incumbent victory that has a certain rather shabby feel about it isn't there?

Anyway, if we compare the provisional results to the final polls, if we accept that minor deviations are to be expected, then it's really only three parties with polling scores that look very clearly *wrong*: Likud, Jewish Home and Yachad. And that's the election explained, or something.

That's right. According to the last polls I've seen in Wikipedia, the right-religious bloc was expected to get between 55-57 and the left-Arab bloc 41-44. That's exactly what happened (though it ended up in the higher end for the former and the lower end for the latter). Most transfers have been internal to blocs.

THe problem with this analysis is that these blocs don't really exist. Had ZU beaten Likud decisively they would have had a decent shot at roping in Kulanu and/or Shas/UTJ and form a government.

You mean Shas and UTJ were open to supporting a Left-wing government over a Centre-Right one when both were a possibility? I wouldn't have thought.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There's a very specific sort of incumbent victory that has a certain rather shabby feel about it isn't there?

Anyway, if we compare the provisional results to the final polls, if we accept that minor deviations are to be expected, then it's really only three parties with polling scores that look very clearly *wrong*: Likud, Jewish Home and Yachad. And that's the election explained, or something.

That's right. According to the last polls I've seen in Wikipedia, the right-religious bloc was expected to get between 55-57 and the left-Arab bloc 41-44. That's exactly what happened (though it ended up in the higher end for the former and the lower end for the latter). Most transfers have been internal to blocs.

THe problem with this analysis is that these blocs don't really exist. Had ZU beaten Likud decisively they would have had a decent shot at roping in Kulanu and/or Shas/UTJ and form a government.

You mean Shas and UTJ were open to supporting a Left-wing government over a Centre-Right one when both were a possibility? I wouldn't have thought.

They only would have done it if Labor came in first place. They'll go along with the plurality winner because they just want to be in power regardless. They aren't going to act as kingmaker for a runner up though, that would be seen as showing too much favor to that party and hurt future relations with the other.

So a vote for them is essentially a wasted vote? At least in terms of deciding who will govern the country.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh. Well, thanks for reminding me why I hate sectional politics...