Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Hnv1]

danny, you had that maps thread back in the days...will you update it with the 2013 data?

[jaichind]

I wonder how the Arabs in Israel votes.  I think Arabs make up 20% of the Israel population.  But it seems Hadash/UAL/Balad gets around 10% of the vote.  Are Arabs 20% of the registered voters ?  I assume it is for sure not since some of them would refuse to participate in the process.  Still, I wonder what happen to the other 10% of 20%.  Do some of them vote for the mainstream parties ? (Labor, Likud, Yesh Atid...)

[Zinneke]

Wouldn't events this summer have seriously affected Meretz's electoral chances, or it at least its reputation, hence the low polling? I mean the Israeli media didn't dare question Bibi's version of events. These two teenagers that are apparently what kicked things back off were missing for two weeks and it was scarcely reported in the media then when they were found dead a massive campaign against Hamas-collaborators and Arab sympathisers started. Furthermore, JT linked the israeli arab protests with Meretz.

[Hnv1]

I wonder how the Arabs in Israel votes.  I think Arabs make up 20% of the Israel population.  But it seems Hadash/UAL/Balad gets around 10% of the vote.  Are Arabs 20% of the registered voters ?  I assume it is for sure not since some of them would refuse to participate in the process.  Still, I wonder what happen to the other 10% of 20%.  Do some of them vote for the mainstream parties ? (Labor, Likud, Yesh Atid...)

In Israel we don't have the GOP every citizen is a registered voter. There's around 50% voting in the Arab population. There used to be a large chunk of Labour and Meretz voters not so much any more. If I recall seeing a poll after 2013 around 90% of the Arab population vote for one of the three Arabic parties with the rest voting for Labour, Meretz, Likud, Shas etc (by that order)

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Not so much. The typical Meretz voter agreed with the party stance that there needs to be peace on the southern border but the war is pointless. they were circling 9 seats in polls well after it and with a backlash to the racist atmsphere you will see some centre voters tilt left too. As most reporters say Meretz and JH are the only parties seems set to profit in the election

[danny]

danny, you had that maps thread back in the days...will you update it with the 2013 data?

If I have time I'd like to, but I can't promise.

[danny]

Elections will be on the 17th of March.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Given margin of error issues there's something like a five-way tie for second place at present. Hilarious.

As for Meretz, don't forget that a few years ago they would have been delighted to be polling around about where they are now...

[danny]

As for Meretz, don't forget that a few years ago they would have been delighted to be polling around about where they are now...

But not any time other than between 2 elections ago and the last one. The 2009 result is not a usual result, it happened because of Meretz voters voting for Kadima to try to get them past Likud.

[MalaspinaGold]

Al, based on the polls Bennett has held a consistent second place. third place is where all hell breaks loose.

Speaking of which, I've read rumors that there is bad blood between Bennett and Housing Minister Ariel. Is there any possibility of a breakup of Jewish Home?

Also, now that Livni is dead weight, will she try and join Labor, or will she call it quits? From what I understand Lapid doesn't want her while Herzog is interested.

Are there any retirement prospects on the horizon? If Bennett is craving the defense ministry as much as they say he is, does that mean Yaalon is ready to call it quits?

[Famous Mortimer]

A break between the Jewish Home and the former National Union is always a possibility.

Weird though because Bennett is a very National Union-y Jewish Home member (hawk who happens to be religious rather than a theocrat who happens to be a hawk).

What is Ariel's specific beef?

I suppose rather than go it totally alone Ariel might join the Kachist Strength to Israel.

[MalaspinaGold]

From what I understand, it's underlying resentment + Bennett isn't being sufficiently loony:
http://www.timesofisrael.com/jewish-home-mks-threaten-split-to-right-wing-camp/

Also I've always thought National Union was more theocrat-y than anything else.

Edit: Also, is there any indication who Kachlon will primarily target?

[Famous Mortimer]

The first two leaders of the National Union were Benny Begin and Avigdor Lieberman. So not exactly theocrats.

The only religious party in the National Union for a long time was Tekuma, which broke away from the NRP (old name of The Jewish Home) because it wasn't hawkish enough. They were usually the smallest party though.

I do believe Tekuma gained control of the entire party aparatus towards the end but that was basically after they had already agreed to merge back into The Jewish Home.

[Famous Mortimer]

Then again, Ariel is from Tekuma.

I'm reading about this now, it's really almost comical. The Jewish Home/historical NRP is going to basically become the old National Union and all the people were in formerly in the National Union are going to break away and form a new version of the NRP.

[MalaspinaGold]

Dang it, I confused the NRP and the NU; they were a bit before my time.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/popular-ex-likud-minister-launches-new-party/
Times of Israel profile on Kahlon. Rumors that he'll run with Yoav Galant and possibly Diskin(?). I must say, if Diskin does this, he really is politically inept. It also doesn't say much about Kachlon- if he's running an economic party, why the hell is he stuffing it with defense guys?

Trajtenberg is also mentioned, which makes no sense. No mention of Saar though.

[MalaspinaGold]

More polls:
Maagar Mochot:
26 Likud
16 Bayit Yehudi
13 Labor
12 Yisrael Beitenu
8 Yesh Atid
8 Shas
8 UTJ
8 Kachlon
7 Meretz
4 Ra’am-Ta’al
4 Hadash
3 Movement
3 Balad

Do you plan on going out to vote?
31% For sure, 24% Most likely, 35% average or low chance

From a scale of 1-10 what is your faith in the Israeli political system?
4.7 average

And from Sarid (only partial):
Likud: 17
Bayit Yehudi: 17
Labor: 17
Yesh Atid: 11

Who is at fault for the collapse of the coalition?
53% Netanyahu, 28% Lapid, 13% Labor & Opposition, 2% Livni, 2% Bennett, 1% Liberman

Who will be the next Prime Minister?
48% Netanyahu, 10% Herzog, 6% Bennett, 5% Liberman, 3% Lapid, 2% Kachlon, 2% Livni, 21% Don’t know

Also, looks like Shas might be on the verge of breaking up. If Yishai does leave, who stays with Deri? I'm thinking Vaknin; anyone else?
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Yishai-is-considering-options-regarding-his-political-future-383597

[danny]

I suppose rather than go it totally alone Ariel might join the Kachist Strength to Israel.

The talk right now is for the National Union to join with Eli Yishai who will break away from Deri's Shas. Might happen, might not.

[Famous Mortimer]

Why won't Yeshai join Likud? That seems like the obvious thing to do.

Because Likud don't want him and he'd lose more votes than he'd gain maybe?

[danny]

Why won't Yeshai join Likud? That seems like the obvious thing to do.

Because Likud don't want him and he'd lose more votes than he'd gain maybe?

Likud is nowhere near religious enough for Yishai to fit in well, so Yishai shouldn't want to join them.
But for Likud it would be ridiculously bad, he would cost them far more votes than he would bring in, this is basically the kind move the Likud should make if they wanted to prop up Lapid or Lieberman.

[Hnv1]

Bennet is pretty much holding Ariel and the Tkuma memebers by the balls. They have no chance of running alone and he doesn't really need them but the old religious settlers establishment want them in with the JH. Many major rabbies like Avinari and Tau pretty much named him a secular.

Eli Ishay is rather dumb, true right now with Deri'i at the top they look set to get between 7-8 but if they split their strength will be even lower.

[Hnv1]

2 interesting polls from Globes:

Likud - 23
JH- 16
Labour - 15
YA - 10
Liberman - 10
Kachlon - 10
Shas - 9
Meretz - 7
UTJ - 7
Hadash - 5
Balad - 3
Ra'm- 3
Livni -2

What happens if Livni joins Labour?
Labour+Livni - 24
Likud -22
JH - 16
Liberman - 10
Shas - 9
Kachlon - 9
YA - 7
UTJ - 7
Meretz - 5
Hadash - 5
Balad - 3
Ra'm- 3

first poll In ages in which Likud are second

[Famous Mortimer]

Israeli push polling is ridiculous.

[MalaspinaGold]

Kachlon says he is willing to trade land for peace, faults Netanyahu for being unwilling to do so:
http://www.timesofisrael.com/rising-star-kahlon-says-he-would-give-land-for-peace/

Mofaz to join with Labor, will most likely receive a spot in the top 5.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/mofaz-to-join-labor-party-reports-say/

Report is that Livni is more likely to join labor also. If so, she gets the number 2 spot, and Mitzna and Peretz will be in the top 10.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/labor-hatnua-parties-consider-alliance/

Here's a piece on Zouheir Bahlul, the sportscaster hnv1 mentioned may join Meretz:
http://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-arab-sportscaster-to-get-into-game-from-inside-knesset/

[Famous Mortimer]

What the hell, just for fun

I guess there are two options for a Labor government:

The most obvious one is Labor (Labor-Livni-Kadima) + Yesh Atid + Kahlon + Shas + UTJ

The one no one has dared mention yet: Labor (Labor-Livni-Kadima) + Yesh Atid + Kahlon + YB

The question is whether or not Liberman would consider joining the left. It's unlikely but he might be able to do it if he gets civil marriage as a result.

Another problem is that a left-government with Liberman would need to have a majority on its own, they couldn't depend on Hadash  like a coalition with the ultra-Orthodox could.

[Famous Mortimer]

Irrelevant at this late point, but if Labor, Hatnuah, and Kadima merged and kept all their members, the resulting party would be the largest faction in the Knesset.

[Famous Mortimer]

Livni came out and made a weird statement that Hatnuah and Labor will merge but also said she wants to head the list.

Her delusions of grandeur are bordering on mental illness.