Since 2000, Tarrant has largely been a bellwether in terms of TX's final margin -
especially since 2008. Tarrant's margin has been within one-half of a point of the state's in the three past elections.
YR TX TARRANT DIFF
2000 21.32 23.96 2.64
2004 22.87 25.38 2.51
2008 11.75 11.70 -0.05
2012 15.78 15.69 -0.09
2016 8.99 8.60 -0.39
Yet Tarrant really hasn't had a breakout moment yet like many rapidly-trending R-to-D suburban counties do, where they suddenly lurch much further to the left in one or more elections than the state as a whole. Part of this may be because such a huge percentage of TX lives in suburban areas, so maybe it's irrelevant, but...if suburban attitudes of Trump as they were last year largely hold - or get worse - then you very well may see Tarrant flip in 2020.
Look at counties in my state - Cobb and Gwinnett in particular - for an example of what could happen, with particular emphasis on the difference in margins between the state and the county.
YR GA COBB DIFF
2000 11.69 22.90 11.21
2004 16.59 24.82 8.23
2008 5.20 9.41 4.21
2012 7.80 12.42 4.62
2016 5.09 -2.16 -7.25
YR GA GWINNETT DIFF
2000 11.69 31.56 19.87
2004 16.59 32.22 15.63
2008 5.20 10.21 5.01
2012 7.80 9.20 1.4
2016 5.09 -5.79 -10.88
Whether it's one that's a bit more gradual/uniform over cycles or one that gradually shifts while occasionally having waves of massive shifts, usually there is suddenly one or more lurches in suburban R-to-D trending counties. I don't think we've seen that happen in Tarrant yet. My money would be on Tarrant being a bit more like Cobb than Gwinnett. Still, you only need one more moderately-sized suburban-style swing in Tarrant to flip it, whether TX as a whole moves along with it or not.
Yeah (also live in Tarrant county) they have often said here amongst our GOP that if Tarrant county falls so does Texas in GOP terms, it is the one stubborn block that really stops the changeover
See my post above; the parts referring to Cobb/Gwinnett are relevant. No sane person before 2016 thought GA would remain GOP with both Cobb and Gwinnett flipping, and yet it happened rather abruptly and massively without really threatening the GOP's statewide dominance.
