Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/pzelekha/status/1374368411283824644?s=21

STOP THE COUNT

[jaymichaud]

This thread:

[jaymichaud]

Channel 11-
Likud 31
Yesh Atid 18
Shas 9
Joint List 8
UTJ 7
Lieberman 7
Labor 7
B&W 7
Yamina 7
RZ 7
Meretz 6
New Hope 6
Ra’am 0


So when do you think Elections #5 will happen?

[jaymichaud]

I thought you guys said the results were shocking?

[jaymichaud]

Sa’ar went from being the alternative to Netanyahu to possibly leading the smallest party in the Knesset. Seems like the big loser of the election. Wasn’t there talk of New Hope MPs gravitating towards Likud again if the result was bad?

I'd argue Bennett is too. He went from polling at like 22 seats to maybe winning 7 in what? 3 months?

[jaymichaud]

Don't really have much to say regarding the exit polls. I was expecting to have a meltdown but I think we're all just hoping for the best and preparing for the worst. Fingers crossed.

Smotrich's party should have never been allowed to run. Fascist bastards.

Yesh Atid did alright, a bit of an underperformance for me. I was hoping Lapid could at least do 20 but I speak too soon.

Labor went from polling at like 1% to winning 7 seats in just a few months? Their politics aren't mine, but Merav really did a good job. Parrotguy was right by saying that she could have probably gotten about 10 seats if Meretz and B&W were a bit more sturdy in the polls and didn't steal some tactical votes.

Meretz was a pleasant surprise.

B&W... whatever, I suppose? (Is there any chance of a reunification with Lapid now since we now know he isn't complete electoral poison or nah?)

LMAO at Joint List. I wonder who they'll inevitably blame for this.

YB, UTJ and Shas were predicable.

Abbas, Bennett and Sa'ar are the fools.

[jaymichaud]

Meretz hasn't had 7 seats or more since 1999. Damn

[jaymichaud]

Bibi at 59/60 in all exit polls now lets GOOOOOO

[jaymichaud]

Is it a coincidence that the parties with Arab and Druze representatives in high spots (Meretz, Yesh Atid and Labor) are all predicted to make large gains? A lot of missed opportunities not tapping in to that community tbh.

[jaymichaud]

Even if Yamina joins Bibi, that doesn't give him a majority. It looks like Ra'am will be kingmakers.

According to the Times of Israel with 87% of votes counted:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/outcome-still-up-in-air-officials-to-start-count-of-450000-absentee-ballots/
pro-Netanyahu bloc: 52 seats

   Likud: 30
   Shas: 9
   United Torah Judaism: 7
   Religious Zionism: 6



anti-Netanyahu bloc: 56 seats

   Yesh Atid: 17
   Blue and White: 8
   Labor: 7
   Yisrael Beytenu: 7
   Joint List: 6
   New Hope: 6
   Meretz: 5

non committed parties (as of right now, anyway): 12

   Yamina: 7
   Ra'am: 5

No government for him then-

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/raam-official-says-party-does-not-want-to-partner-with-racists-on-right/

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/likud_party/status/1375109628363747331?s=21

[jaymichaud]

Where we can find the list of candidates?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_lists_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election

[jaymichaud]

All these haters mad because I'm so established
They know I'm a beast, yeah I'm a f**king savage
Haters you can kill yourself, uh

[jaymichaud]

The Labor Party wants to pass a law to prevent criminal defendants from running or serving as president, to block Netanyahu from using this escape route if he can't form a government.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CNW7-Mhl_7z/

[jaymichaud]

Bennett is having successive meetings with Bibi (even invited to Balfour street!) and they will the negotiation teams meet up starting next week. Can’t see it happening as long as Smotric remains unwilling to accept Ra’am supported government, but Bibi us desperate to get rid of the rotation government.

I really can’t see the Lapid-Bennett government taking shape, sorry to disappoint everyone.

Presidential elections starting to speed up. Current declared candidates: former Rafi/Labour MK Michael Bar Zohar; former Labour minister, and my former teacher, Prof. Shimon Sheetreet (massive tosser); Amir Peretz. Herzog is rumoured to be in with no official statement yet. No one from the right put forward yet beside weirdo Yehuda Glick.

The campaign is on going. No, not that one. Future PMs in their own mind Chief of Mossad Yossi Cohen, and Chief of the GS Lt. Gen. Kochavi having a covert media war.

Elham Khazen (Arab woman who’s a member of B&W and ran on Labour’s list previously) is running according to wikipedia as well.

[jaymichaud]

...

So, that's it?

[jaymichaud]

It seems there is going to be a dispute between Lapid and Bennett who ought to get the mandate from the president to form the government (partially symbolic as the rotation government allows both to form one and be first\second, partially substantial as there's fear Bennett might still try to form some right-wing government).
Meanwhile, Meretz and Labour activists (with their complete misunderstanding of politics) are starting an online campaign to get major ministries in said government. Claiming that as their combined strength equals that of Sa'ar and Bennett they ought to get the same power. Well, that it is of course ridiculous because we all know they can't be allowed to appear as if they somehow thwarted the anti-Bibi government. 

It's still important to put pressure from the left imo. The left exists and it can't be totally ignored like that- the current government suggestion is ridiculous. Obviously Bennet and Sa'ar's 13 will be worth more than the left's 13, but the left's 13 should be worth something. I'd say something along the line of Home and Education Ministries as well as two or three more ministries is fair.

They have no way to put the squeeze here. Home office for Michaeli, and Economy for Horowitz is the most, maybe two junior portfolios for Zandberg and Bar Lev

That would be reasonable, but in the current state Shaked vetoed Home for Michaeli because it's "ideological". I know the religious zionists think they're superior human beings, but there's no way Labour and Meretz should agree to getting absolutely nothing out of this. I'd say the reasonable thinkg would be 3 Ministries (including Home) for Labour and 2 (one like Economy or Health and the other a junior position) for Meretz.

That’s 5 ministries for 13 MKs, considering the new government would be at most 24 members big, and YA have to allocate a lot to their people that’s a bit out of order.
Zandberg can take Social Equality or somewhere else she won’t do damage in. Most of Labour’s bench are rookies with zero political experience. Give them house committees over ministries.

That's fair. The problem is that the current negotiating position of the right isn't fair. Af least one major ministry like Home should be non negotiable.

It would be prudent to bloc together and demand one top portfolio (not sure the home office is the one they'd want) and other junior ministries. Though knowing Meretz they would rather negotiate separately and incompently.

It is actually quite a pickle. we have 6 parties roughly the same size and slightly bigger YA. and as YB aren't counted with the right bloc this time it means again some problem in manning offices to have equal weight.

Gantz and Liberman will both demand 2 ministries each with each getting a senior one. YA have a lot of people waiting on the side line for a ministry. It would see that the left could either get 1 big one and 2 very small ones or just small ones. But as I don't see Zandberg backing down on getting a ministry it would be difficult to appease everyone here. Just to show you that the left isn't that different from the right when it comes to their egos.

It is pretty ridiculous that YB is counted with the left. Seems to me like a mistake in framing.

Well, they recommended Lapid, and unless Lieberman is willing to tie his faith with Bennett who would be able to sack him at any moment that's the ways the ministries will be divided.

I think Bennet and Lapid can take PM and foreign office and rotate between them. Gantz remains at Defence, Lieberman can take the treasury, Sa'ar Justice, Shaked Home Office, Michaeli Economy, Horowitz Transporation, and the rest could be divided on bloc lines. Immigration will be given to Tamana-Shata. Welfare to Shasha-Bitton. Barbibai will probably stay as chairman of the defence committee but other YA seniors will get portfolios. Bar Lev might be dumb enough to take interior security.

I'm happy as long as Shaked is away from Justice and Zandberg is away from an economic office.

In what way are Labor and Meretz different in terms of economics?

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/EylonALevy/status/1389262662333313025

https://twitter.com/EylonALevy/status/1389263830237200384

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/barak_ehud/status/1390625429166362625

Is this s*** real? If so WTH?

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/LahavHarkov/status/1392888625382232068

Yet they still don’t have 61...

[jaymichaud]

Miriam Peretz - bereaved mother (two sons KIA), former school headmaster, and a public figure for "unity within". Settler

Bit of a weird choice, no? Never been an MK, no political experience?

[jaymichaud]

So uh, a few updates.
1. According to channel 12's Amit Segal (been wrong in service of cynical politicians before), Bennet decided on a unity government with Lapid, and the swearing in is planned in 10 days. The current hurdle is Shaked, who's still not sure. Announcement expected Saturday night or Sunday. I'm assuming another hurdle is Ra'am, because they haven't been talked about.
2. Lapid has been signing agreements with other parties already. First was Yisrael Beiteinu, who got a hold on the economy with the Finance Ministry and the Budget Committee. Next was Meretz, who got a nice prize with Health for Horovitz, Environmental Protection for Zandberg, Regional Cooperation for Isawi Farij, and a sub-committee chairmanship in the Foreign and Defense Affairs Committee for Yair Golan. Today we got an agreement with Labor, who managed to squeeze out quite a lot too- Transportation (probably for Michaeli), Internal Security (probably for Bar Lev), and Diaspora (I assume for Gilad Kariv), along with the Labor and Welfare Committee Chairwomanship (woman because I'm assuming it's going to Emily Moati). They also got 2 seats on the cabinet (Michaeli and Bar Lev) and a very critical seat in the judge selection committee for Michaeli, who'll be the government's sole representative (other than the Justice Minister) there. Lapid did promise the right a veto on SC judge selection by choosing the two Knesset representatives on the committee to be right-wingers (who'll be able to block with Sa'ar anyone they don't want for the SC).

So we'll see what's going to happen, but it might very well be that the change government is back on the menu.

Bennet has apparently agreed to a government. Hard to not be pessimistic but brace yourselves

[jaymichaud]

To me, this seems like a fairly noticeable ideological shift for Hadash - the "Tankie" party bosses used to order everyome to sing Hatikvah and banned the Palestinian flag. It does seem that they have been pushed closer to Balad over the past 10 years. How has their voting base changed over this time? What role does the increasing integration of Palestinian woman in the workplace have?

That was Maki, a different party. Hadash is decedent from the very anti Zionist Rakah.
Anyhow, it’s mainly a play for the young educated voters (Arab) who are much much more nationalist than the old guard.


Rumours Lapid will announce the government on Monday

From Khamsim in 1990

Following clashes with police in Nazareth on Land Day 1988, local Pales­tinian-Arab leaders decided to move the 1989 Galilee protests to villages to the north, with a march from Sakhnin to Deir Hana for a rally there. As Sakhnin had been the site of the original 1976 killings, certainly this decision had a strong symbolic significance. Yet it can also be seen as a pre-emptive move by the local leadership, particularly the Israeli Com­munist Party (Rakah), the leading electoral force among Palestinian-Arab citizens within Israel. An unstated aim was to limit any public confrontation with the Israeli authorities, particularly around display of the Palestinian flag.

Not only is such display illegal, but it challenges Rakah’s policy of dis­playing the Israeli flag ‒ and even singing “Hatikvah”, the Zionist national anthem. The conflict with many Palestinian-Arab citizens arises from the party’s insistence that they already have a country, Israel. According to Nazareth lawyer ‘Aziz Shehadeh, Rakah tries to stop youths from rais­ing the Palestinian flag as “part of its deal with the Establishment, to gain legitimation in Jewish society”. As put more bluntly by ‘Ali Jedda, of the Alternative Information Centre (Jerusalem), no police were needed at Deir Hana because “Rakah were the border police” (interview with the author, Spring 1989). His comparison refers, of course, less to physical repression than to an ideological policing of Israeli versus Palestinian national loyalty.

What precisely is the difference between a Balad voter and a Hadash voter? Nationalism? Is there a difference among economic sectors of the Palestinians - ie do construction workers vote different from pharmacists?

From what I understand most Hadash voters aren’t actually communists, just left wing Arabs who think Meretz are too ‘compromised’ (their Jewish voters are pretty commie though). Tend to be more popular with richer, more urban, more secular, more educated Arabs. They get a lot of support from Christians too.

Balad are basically just closet ba’athists/Nasserists who had ties to Syria before the civil war.

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/yairlapid/status/1400190070578089985

[jaymichaud]

Wave Bibi goodbye in this thread.

Glad he’s going, for sure, but Bennett doesn’t give me a ton of hope.

His party only has 6 seats (he has one defector) so he'd be overpowered by the centre and left.