Canada 2004: Harper minority

[RogueBeaver]

Let's say the Tory campaign is better-disciplined and the Liberals go on defense a couple of days later than RL. The Grit tactical vote pitch therefore isn't as effective and Harper narrowly defeats Martin by a margin similar to RL's 2006.

So, how does the alt-38th Parliament play out? Does Martin immediately resign as Liberal leader? If so who replaces him? Does Harper govern much differently than his first government?

[RogueBeaver]

I believe so. The Air India inquiry was recommended by Bob Rae, who had been appointed by Paul Martin. Harper followed through on Air India, he'd almost certainly follow through on Gomery for the same reasons that Marois is tracking Charbonneau very closely right now.

I believe he'd wait for a "decent interval" after Gomery, depending on the polls and who the Liberal leader is. Remember that the civil war had just finished up with those bitter gerrymandered redistricting battles between Martinites and Chretienites, Copps v. Valeri being the most infamous. Plus the Chretienite purges.

IMO Martin resigns because he's just taken the Liberals down from solid majority to opposition status 6 months after the Torontonian pundits said the "Martin Bulldozer" would win 200 seats and sweep Quebec. Who runs is the question. From RL's '06 field Iggy isn't in politics yet, Rae hasn't switched parties and Dion has just been demoted from IGA to Environment. Maybe the Chretienites try and retake the field but it would be extremely bloody.

One solid option might be Frank McKenna, who IIRC isn't affiliated with either camp. Another one is Scott Brison, a Martinite both ideologically and factionally but inoffensive to the Chretienites. Problem is that he's just switched parties. LeBlanc is too green, he was first elected in 2000. Lapierre is way too controversial because of his BQ past.

Until we figure out who the Liberal leader is it'll be hard to say how things develop. If Harper governs like he did in his RL minorities then things should be fine.