Washington state megathread

[Alaska2392]

Where are they already posting ballot return statistics? King County isn't posting them until tomorrow.

Nevermind: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx

[MaxQue]

If Jayapal and/or Teachout is elected, the dems need to make it clear that they are not welcome due to their socialist views. Don't put them on any committees period and endorse a high profile primary challenger for 2018. Tell primary voters that if they don't vote for this challenger, that they are a highly dangerous traitor to the party and to the country that should go beg the local police to punish them for their actuon

Well, as Democrats are not fascists, they won't do that.

[Alcon]

Ds hold the House and win back the Senate, though it'll be close. Trump is just too toxic and there really aren't any competitive state-wide races to bring out people to vote.

Here's a good overview from Crosscut on the tossup races. They don't actually give any predictions, but they do identify the competitive districts: http://features.crosscut.com/washington-state-districts-control-olympia-legislature-election-2016

Also: 135k ballots have been returned so far, or 3.8% of registered voters. Any idea why Island County has already a 15.9% return rate?

I'm guessing some variation may relate to when ballots were mailed...but Island mailed on the last possible day.  And of all counties, I can't think of a reason that Island and Skagit would be the top two.

Looking within King County, Seattle is outpacing the county (4.2% vs. 3.8%), with especially strong results in the 43rd LD (5.0%) and the 36th (4.7%).  Maybe some of that is high performance because of the Jayapal/Walkinshaw race in the 7th CD, but CD7 is only at 4.1% overall, and both the 11th LD and 37th LD -- which are in Adam Smith's 9th CD -- are outpacing the 34th LD, which is mostly in the 7th CD.  Also, looking within Seattle, Capitol Hill and similar neighborhoods are going strong.  However, the two weakest neighborhoods -- Lakewood and Seward Park -- are high-turnout areas with nearly no votes cast, which makes me wonder whether postal delivery schedules aren't skewing things.

Basically, there's a TONNNN of noise in this data, but it's consistent with higher Democratic enthusiasm.

[publicunofficial]

Made a trip into Port Townsend (Jefferson County) today. Still as dark blue as ever from the looks of things. Saw more signs for Hillary Franz than I did Trump.

[Alaska2392]

Made a trip into Port Townsend (Jefferson County) today. Still as dark blue as ever from the looks of things. Saw more signs for Hillary Franz than I did Trump.

Well, that's good to know - though obviously expected. Jefferson County population growth has been lagging though.  Democratic stronghold, but not increasing its influence statewide.

While I wish Jefferson County were larger, I'm happy to have any county in Washington that votes around 65%ish + for the Democrat.   In 2012, the 6,334 gap for Obama was just about enough to offset victories for Romney in Wahkiakum, Skamania, Klickitat, Columbia, Garfield, Asotin, Whitman, Ferry, and Pend Oreille combined.  The Jefferson + San Juan Obama v. Romney gap was ~10,000 altogether.

[Alcon]

Here's an interesting pattern in the turnout results so far, for the 25 counties where I have matchbacks:

* 4.4% of voters who didn't vote in the Presidential Primary have returned ballots

* 11.6% of Republican voters from the Primary have returned ballots

* 15.0% (!) of Democratic voters from the Primary have returned ballots

Obviously, that won't hold up, but that's a 64%-36% D turnout split among Presidential Primary voters in the General so far, when the Presidential Primary was only 58%-42% D.  That seems like a significant early enthusiasm gap to me, and it holds up across counties.

Made a trip into Port Townsend (Jefferson County) today. Still as dark blue as ever from the looks of things. Saw more signs for Hillary Franz than I did Trump.

I think there's a distinct possibility Trump may fall under 15% in Port Townsend.  Jefferson County will probably be pretty nasty to him in general.  He's also a bad candidate for Port Ludlow, which is a high-income, educated area (47% with a bachelor's degree and 24% with a graduate degree -- especially impressive when the median age is 66) and a big source of GOP votes in the county.

Beyond Brinnon, I don't think there's a part of Jefferson County that's any good for him.

[Alaska2392]

I've read in more than a couple places now about this weird "Inslee's first term has been filled with scandal" narrative. 

http://www.seattleweekly.com/news/the-gop-says-inslee-is-a-terrible-governor-so-why-cant-they-beat-him-2/

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Some of these things seem out of Inslee's control (or at least he shares the blame with the legislature) and I feel like none of them are particularly game changing issues that voters really care deeply about. 

[Seattle]

I voted yesterday:

Most of my ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: Yes
I-1501: No
I-732: Yes
I-735: Yes

US Senator: Patty Murray
US Representative: Brady Walkinshaw (my hardest decision by far)
Governor: Jay Inslee
Lt Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: Duane Davidson (only R)
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
CPL: Hillary Franz
SPI: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler

State Rep: Jessyn Farrell and Gerry Pollett

Supreme Court: Yu, Madsen, Wiggins

AND MOST IMPORTANTLY: Yes on Proposition 1 aka ST3.
-----

Also, voting up to 432,735 or 10.2%, but I don't think King County numbers updated?

[Alcon]

I voted yesterday:

Most of my ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: Yes
I-1501: No
I-732: Yes
I-735: Yes

US Senator: Patty Murray
US Representative: Brady Walkinshaw (my hardest decision by far)
Governor: Jay Inslee
Lt Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: Duane Davidson (only R)
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
CPL: Hillary Franz
SPI: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler

State Rep: Jessyn Farrell and Gerry Pollett

Supreme Court: Yu, Madsen, Wiggins

AND MOST IMPORTANTLY: Yes on Proposition 1 aka ST3.
-----

Also, voting up to 432,735 or 10.2%, but I don't think King County numbers updated?

Nope.  King County posts at 8 PM every weeknight

[publicunofficial]

I voted yesterday:

Most of my ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: Yes
I-1501: No
I-732: Yes
I-735: Yes

US Senator: Patty Murray
US Representative: Brady Walkinshaw (my hardest decision by far)
Governor: Jay Inslee
Lt Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: Duane Davidson (only R)
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
CPL: Hillary Franz
SPI: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler

State Rep: Jessyn Farrell and Gerry Pollett

Supreme Court: Yu, Madsen, Wiggins

AND MOST IMPORTANTLY: Yes on Proposition 1 aka ST3.
-----

Also, voting up to 432,735 or 10.2%, but I don't think King County numbers updated?

What made you choose Walkinshaw over Jayapal? I think both are fantastic, and I'm glad I don't have to choose.

[Seattle]

It's actually some weird logic. First off, I should say I was actually a Jayapal voter in the primary. However, I am first and foremost an urbanist and that is what Walkinshaw is. That generally doesn't really impact my vote outside of City of Seattle elections, but it did here. At first I wanted Walkinshaw to stay in the WA legislature as he has been an excellent voice for urbanists and Seattle in Olympia, so I was a bit annoyed that he decided to leave his position, plus I have so much respect for Pramila as a strong progressive and for what's she's done for immigrants, which is what led to my primary vote. Anyway, if he can bring his pro-urban, pro-transit, pro-housing agenda to D.C, I would be thrilled, so that's basically what changed my vote.

Coincidentally, I'm not in Walkinshaw's district, but I strongly support Dan Shih. Plus, if he's elected, he'll be the 4th gay married man in a row to represent the house position, haha (this is the district of Mayor Murray, Jamie Pederson, and now Walkinshaw).

[publicunofficial]

Coincidentally, I'm not in Walkinshaw's district, but I strongly support Dan Shih. Plus, if he's elected, he'll be the 4th gay married man in a row to represent the house position, haha (this is the district of Mayor Murray, Jamie Pederson, and now Walkinshaw).

Shih's great, but Macri is an amazing leader on the affordable housing/homeless problem front. And while not a man, she is a married gay.

[Seattle]

Coincidentally, I'm not in Walkinshaw's district, but I strongly support Dan Shih. Plus, if he's elected, he'll be the 4th gay married man in a row to represent the house position, haha (this is the district of Mayor Murray, Jamie Pederson, and now Walkinshaw).

And while not a man, she is a married gay.

I did not know that! The tradition continues, regardless! I think Macri is a great candidate and has some of the best experience in dealing with Seattle's homeless problem. That race reminds me of the city council Johnson/Maddox race, where both candidates are amazing, but in the end, there's a clear urbanist choice (Johnson and Shih). I would LOVE if Maddox challenged Sawant though, not that I hate her or anything, but she's surprisingly anti-density and pro-single-family-home.

[KingSweden]

Coincidentally, I'm not in Walkinshaw's district, but I strongly support Dan Shih. Plus, if he's elected, he'll be the 4th gay married man in a row to represent the house position, haha (this is the district of Mayor Murray, Jamie Pederson, and now Walkinshaw).

And while not a man, she is a married gay.

I did not know that! The tradition continues, regardless! I think Macri is a great candidate and has some of the best experience in dealing with Seattle's homeless problem. That race reminds me of the city council Johnson/Maddox race, where both candidates are amazing, but in the end, there's a clear urbanist choice (Johnson and Shih). I would LOVE if Maddox challenged Sawant though, not that I hate her or anything, but she's surprisingly anti-density and pro-single-family-home.

What are Marci's stances in regards to Seattle's recent homeless debates? If she's an advocate with some knowledge on the matter I imagine she has a better position than SCC's current "stick them in parks!" plan but I've learned long ago that the housing debate in Seattle frequently misses the forest for the trees, with someone like Sawant being a perfect example.

[publicunofficial]

Coincidentally, I'm not in Walkinshaw's district, but I strongly support Dan Shih. Plus, if he's elected, he'll be the 4th gay married man in a row to represent the house position, haha (this is the district of Mayor Murray, Jamie Pederson, and now Walkinshaw).

And while not a man, she is a married gay.

I did not know that! The tradition continues, regardless! I think Macri is a great candidate and has some of the best experience in dealing with Seattle's homeless problem. That race reminds me of the city council Johnson/Maddox race, where both candidates are amazing, but in the end, there's a clear urbanist choice (Johnson and Shih). I would LOVE if Maddox challenged Sawant though, not that I hate her or anything, but she's surprisingly anti-density and pro-single-family-home.

What are Marci's stances in regards to Seattle's recent homeless debates? If she's an advocate with some knowledge on the matter I imagine she has a better position than SCC's current "stick them in parks!" plan but I've learned long ago that the housing debate in Seattle frequently misses the forest for the trees, with someone like Sawant being a perfect example.

This is the most I can find:

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[KingSweden]

Sounds like Shih is more on my wavelength but they are both remarkably clear-eyed about the issue. Macri I'm sure will be a fine legislator

[publicunofficial]

Sounds like Shih is more on my wavelength but they are both remarkably clear-eyed about the issue. Macri I'm sure will be a fine legislator

Part of Macri's background was setting up housing for the homeless that let tenants drink on the premises. It was unpopular, but Macri fought for it because she believed that large amounts of the homeless population would chose booze over housing if they were forced to, and she didn't want to turn them away.

Stuff like that, fighting for unpopular measures for the greater good, really impresses me.

[KingSweden]

Sounds like Shih is more on my wavelength but they are both remarkably clear-eyed about the issue. Macri I'm sure will be a fine legislator

Part of Macri's background was setting up housing for the homeless that let tenants drink on the premises. It was unpopular, but Macri fought for it because she believed that large amounts of the homeless population would chose booze over housing if they were forced to, and she didn't want to turn them away.

Stuff like that, fighting for unpopular measures for the greater good, really impresses me.

That's actually a pretty good idea. Also why I always give food to homeless rather than money, so I help with hunger rather than potentially fuel an alcohol habit.

[BuckeyeNut]

Why so many (D)'s voting for an (R) Treasurer?

[RI]

Why so many (D)'s voting for an (R) Treasurer?

Both candidates are Republican due to the Top Two Primary.

[Alaska2392]

Is Sound Transit 3 just simple majority of combined vote of all counties?  They don't have to get a majority in each to pass, correct?

How was Sound Transit 2 again in this regard? Was it a majority in all three?

[Seattle]

It's a simple majority over the taxing area, which is not actually the entirety of each of the three counties.

[KingSweden]

Filled out my ballot over the weekend.

Prez: Clinton
Senate: Murray
Gov: Inslee (ugh)
SOS: Wyman (R)
Treas: Davidson (R)
Super: Reykdal
Lands: McLaughlin (R)
LGov: Habib
Congress: Pakootas (first time I voted against Cathy)
State Rep 1: Vehrs (D)
State Rep 2: Holy (R, his opponent is a loon)
Spokane County Commish: Mumm (D)
Transit Initiative: Yes

[Xing]

Maybe I should mention that I did turn in my ballot last week:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: Yes
I-1501: No
I-732: Yes
I-735: Yes

US President/Vice President: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine
US Senator: Patty Murray
US Representative: Pramila Jayapal
Governor: Jay Inslee
Lt Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: Duane Davidson
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
CPL: Hillary Franz
SPI: Erin Jones
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler

[publicunofficial]

I voted Erin Jones in the primary, but some of her controversies on gay rights scared me towards Reykdal.