Interesting comparison. Does seem to make the case that 2022 was an improvement from 2020 for Republicans, even as they fell well short of expectations. I'd note that 2/2 Trump CD Dems were incumbents, but just 1/8 Biden CD Republicans.
Republicans are on track to win the House popular vote. Somehow, it didn't translate to the results in the swing districts very well. I did hear something a while back about Democratic gerrymandering focusing on trying to get to 218 (while being vulnerable to a landslide), while Republican gerrymandering focused on maximizing safe seats and playing defense against a wave. While they probably won't get to 218, it seems like the Democrats' strategy was successful this year.
Only really in Texas and GA, since Republicans were aggressive in Florida and Tennessee.
In Florida, it seems like the map was drawn using 2020 partisanship. Seats intended to be "D packs" like FL-09 might've gone R on a more neutral config in 2022 (meaning Dems would just win 1 Orlando seat).
In TN, the only seat that really mattered was TN-05 anyways which they effectively cracked.
South Florida was just a copy of what the legislature did. FL09 generally was the same idea in every proposal. DeSantis picked up a few precincts in Polk but only like 15k people. The only way to get FL09 to be more R would have either beent o have FL07 to take back some Orange precincts to push FL09 southwards but that costs FL07. The other option is have the Brevard district lose Indian River and push westwards but no neutral map would have such a seat considering Brevard + Indian River is exactly a seat.
Ig what I'm saying is in hindsight, FL-07 could've been slightly weekened to allow for FL-09 to be pushed further out of Orange County and more in R-leaning Polk County. The reason the legistlature's map wasn't redder was because FL-11 didn't come and take in any of Orange County and hence FL-10 was not really as much of a "pack".
It's also very possible that on the State legislative proposal where they created 3 narrow Biden seats in Tampa, Rs would've swept all 3 but it seems like Dems didn't collapse in Tampa as badly as some other areas, partially because they're already pretty close to rock bottom there and partially because Christ is form the Tampa area.
Also, on the legislative map the coastal config of FL-22 would've been very close.
