NV-02 special election: 9/13

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2011/8/18/NV-2/49/kbV81

    Kate Marshall (D): 42
    Mark Amodei (R): 43
    Timothy Fasano (AI): 3
    Helmuth Lehmann (I): 3
    Undecided: 8
    (MoE: ±4%)

This is what I expected, more or less. The D triple C better start dumping cash here or I'll be very disappointed in them as an organization. This is another great opportunity to demoralize Republicans and to refill their coffers with cash.

This district is demographically shifting in a large way so I wouldn't be surprised if Marshall squeaked this one out. Amodei is also a terrible candidate as evidenced by his inane debt ads, fat nerd face and inability to be charismatic. Responding to Marshall's Medicare ads was a big mistake, seeing as he's already on the record repeatedly claiming to support Ryan's plan. All that Marshall has to do is release a response to that response and watch sweat pour down Amodei's inept face. If we can win NY-26, we can certainly win NV-2.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The latest ads against Marshall were nuclear and with Obama in complete freefall I'm not surprised by the awful early voting numbers.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Mark Amodei 53%
Kate Marshall 43%
Others 4%

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Perry leading by 12 and Romney by 16 in this district is quite a bit better than McCain who tied it.

President Bush won NV-02 by 16 points.

That's with a pretty sizable enthusiasm gap.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Perry leading by 12 and Romney by 16 in this district is quite a bit better than McCain who tied it.

President Bush won NV-02 by 16 points.

That's with a pretty sizable enthusiasm gap.

That's not what an enthusiasm gap is.

This poll shows an enthusiasm gap via Marshall being a bad candidate running on conservative themes. You can see that with early voting numbers. Sam, you might think I'm a dumb but I know what an enthusiasm gap is.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Perry leading by 12 and Romney by 16 in this district is quite a bit better than McCain who tied it.

President Bush won NV-02 by 16 points.

That's with a pretty sizable enthusiasm gap.

That's not what an enthusiasm gap is.

This poll shows an enthusiasm gap via Marshall being a bad candidate running on conservative themes. You can see that with early voting numbers. Sam, you might think I'm a dumb but I know what an enthusiasm gap is.

With the early voting numbers, you have a point, and a potentially valid one too.  But we need to see actual votes in order to adjudge that read.

However, your post had nothing to do with early voting numbers, it had to do with this poll.  The two are not connected.

PPP's way of adjudging an enthusiasm gap is wrong also, but different.  They look at Obama-McCain ID numbers, and say that if the sample is stronger for McCain, then there is "an enthusiasm gap".  For example, this poll is +4 McCain in 2008, whereas NV-2 was +1 Obama in 2008.  That's wrong in so many ways, but since I generally ignore their analysis, no big deal.

I'd say that the poll composition is more right-leaning than the general electorate in 2008. It has nothing to do with the Obama-McCain ID numbers, that would be a stupid and wrongheaded way to view an enthusiasm gap. The composition of the poll showed an electorate that was 25% liberal to 29% moderate to 46% conservative. Even though the partisan data lines up with registration figures (why so many "American Independents", that fringe party actually has a strong base here?), those numbers look somewhat suspect to me.

Anyways compared to their last poll, which showed a 48 to 46 Obama electorate with a 37 to 41 to 22 D/R/I split this poll is more right-leaning.

After looking at the poll more closely, I'll concede that there is no "sizable" enthusiasm gap but a small one is still there.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

So Obama would lose Nevada by about 4-6 points currently(if not worse)?

With a special election electorate, maybe. Why would you try to draw conclusions about how an Obama-Perry or Obama-Romney race would be like in Nevada right now based off of this race?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Ok, Perry is a retard and people would probably think twice before voting for him. I am exaggerating a bit, sure. But these results are really bad news. The Dems losing Washoe by 10 points? How can you spin that positively?

Marshall was outspent here 3 to 1 or 4 to 1, her campaign narratives were far too right wing to inspire higher turnout from more apathetic left wingers and Amodei did a good job of refuting her attacks on entitlements which were falling flat anyways because of the Paul Ryan plan being out of the news cycle for months.

I'm not trying to spin these results positively, I just don't understand why you'd apply them to the Presidential race. At the very least, Obama would run even in Washoe County.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Marshall was a reasonable candidate in a statewide office. Anyone claiming otherwise is untruthful.

Coakley was a reasonable candidate in a statewide office. Anyone claiming otherwise is untruthful.