Congressional results were more closely tied with Biden approvals than conventional wisdom

[Unelectable Bystander]

A common idea is that Biden’s approvals do not matter because democrats still won many disapproving voters in 2022. The reality is more nuanced than that. All of the following were true in 2022, nationally and in all battleground states.

All Biden approvers voted almost exclusively for democrats.

All Biden strong disapprovers voted almost exclusively for republicans. Most won 95% of this group. The best candidates won them unanimously. The worst showing was Masters, winning them 90-6.

Biden somewhat disapprovers were a true swing group. Democrats won them narrowly nationally and in most states. Only candidates with large candidate quality differences were able to win them handily.

Of the Biden disapprovers, the share of those strongly disapproving was consistent by state. It ranged from 82-88%.

All of this information can be summarized to say that republicans won in places where Biden’s strong disapproval was near or over 50% (FL, TX, OH, NC), or where they outright won the somewhat disapprove group (Lombardo, Kemp, Johnson). Democrats performed well in places where the strong disapproval was in the low 40’s (NH, WI, PA, MI, NV).

One good example is Texas, where Beto carried the somewhat disapprovers but came nowhere close to winning because the strong disapprovers exceeded 50%. Another example is Georgia, where 48% strongly disapproved of Biden. It wasn’t enough for Walker, but he came closer to winning than other weak republicans in states where Biden’s strong disapproval number was lower.

The one exception was Arizona, where Biden’s strong disapproval was exactly 50% but Kelly was still able to win because 4% of the strong disapprovers defected to Victor and because Kelly won the somewhat disapprovers almost unanimously (a feat that nobody else accomplished) thanks to the candidate quality disparity.

This could have relevance in the contested senate races of 2024 such as TX, MT, and OH, where there is a strong democrat candidate running. We can assume these candidates will win the somewhat disapprove group, so we can look at Biden’s strongly disapprove rating as an indicator. I estimate that a strong disapproval rating of 51-52% or an overall disapproval rating of 60% are the points at which there is too much partisanship to overcome.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Well this proves the Georgia will be titanium D and rust belt will be r leaning takes were premature

[Pollster]

For me the biggest question going into 2024 is whether or not Biden himself can win the Biden somewhat disapprovers. Plenty of reasons both for and against it.

[Ferguson97]

For me the biggest question going into 2024 is whether or not Biden himself can win the Biden somewhat disapprovers. Plenty of reasons both for and against it.

My gut says that the "somewhat disapprovers" also dislike Trump, and would probably still rather have Biden than Trump back.