Gary Johnson and the rust belt

[SingingAnalyst]

Johnson got around 3.5% in MI where he was viewed as a moderate, and an alternative to the widely disliked major party candidates. Like many candidates viewed this way, he really had no pockets of strong support, instead doing fairly uniformly well (poorly, actually) across the state. He got up to 5% along the I-96 corridor from Lansing to Grand Rapids and suburbs; got over 4% in wealthy Livingston County, and 3.5% in Oakland County. In Macomb, however (where Trump was king) he barely reached 3%.

[SingingAnalyst]

The general answer to the question of "why did Johnson not do well/not break 3% in some states?" is below:

Gary Johnson performance adjusted for state blackness*:

*Assuming increasing black population means fewer Libertarian voters (arithmetic relation) and more tribalistic/less libertarian behavior among nonblacks (exponential relation).

I assume red means less than expected, yellow means more than expected, and green means much more than expected?