There will be a million comparison to Arnold Schwarzenegger. Arnold was a much better candidate
He had higher name-id and a better image. Schwarzenegger was active in (GOP) politics including ballot measures.
Jenner is really untested.
Also: California is a much bluer and inelastic state today than it was back in 2003.
Not to mention that no Democrats are going to vote for her because she's a Republican, and a very large chunk of Republicans aren't going to support her simply because she's trans. I honestly don't understand how she thinks she even has a chance.
It's not about winning, It's about getting the brand free press, Just like everything else with that family it's all about the grift.