2019 Mississippi Gubernatorial Thread- Jim is in the hood!

[Virginiá]

And for the first time since 2003, all three of LA, MS and KY will be seriously contested.

And you all know how I generally feel about Democrats’ chances in the south, but I’m excited about this one

This is the best shot at the best time we could possibly have, at least for the foreseeable future. The fact that he has won all his races by double digits (or just shy of 10 points in 2015) should inspire confidence too.

[Virginiá]

He actually won by almost 11% in 2015 despite the gubernatorial nominee getting BTFO!

smh

read it wrong, you're right. even better!

[Virginiá]

Off-topic buttttt, if Hood won, since he can veto Congressional maps, is there any chance of a competitive district for Democrats (other than the safe one they have now)? I know the Gov can't veto legislative maps in MS but I'm curious what kind of effect, if any, Hood can have on Congressional redistricting.

[Virginiá]

For some reason Mississippi is the only state that DKE doesn't have presidential results by legislative districts for. If I had to guess, the legislative elections will be completely unremarkable and GOP majorities will barely budge, if at all.

Hood / MS fit the mold of a gubernatorial win that has little if any impact on any other downballot races.

There is one condition to winning the governorship that no one has mentioned. The winner must win a majority of the vote, or 50%+1. If no one wins a majority, the winner of the most state house districts is made the winner. Ill let you guess who that benefits. Good news is that Hood has won by large margins as AG, and has won a majority of state house seats before, but its still a problem.

You mean whoever wins a vote in the state MS House of Reps? This was from Ballotpedia:

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And I have to say, that is a really stupid way to do things, but totally unsurprising for a deep south state.

[Virginiá]

So, actually the term "electoral votes" in the context of MS gubernatorial elections refers to the number of state legislative districts won by each candidate.  So in the event of a plurality-win the winner is whoever wins a plurality in the most state house districts.  Only in the event of an "electoral vote" tie or non-majority do individual members of the state house get to vote.  This is what happened in 1999, when the Democratic state legislature elected Musgrove governor after Musgrove and Parker each won 61 of the 122 house districts.  This type of system isn't unique to Mississippi or the Deep South, Peter Shumlin was elected governor of Vermont under a similar runoff system in 2014. 

This is potentially very problematic for Hood in 2019 if the election were to be decided by a plurality because it is likely that a lot of his votes would come from running up his margin in majority-Black VRA districts.  Even if he bested Reeves by several tens of thousands of votes, this runoff system would probably make Reeves governor without individual house members actually having to take a vote.  While Hood has won a majority of state house districts before in his AG runs, I expect the geography of his gubernatorial race to be a bit different.  He'll probably fall some in the traditionally conservadem NEMS (thanks to #MAGA inelasticity) while probably running ahead of typical Democratic numbers in Madison/Rankin, the Gulf Coast, Forrest/Lamar, GTR and Oxford.  I think this is enough to comfortably get him over 50%, but would not bode well for him winning a majority of legislative districts.

 

Hmm, wait, I'm a bit confused. If he gets 50% or more, does that mean he wins regardless of how many legislative districts he carries? Or does he need to carry a certain # of districts regardless of what his vote share is?

[Virginiá]

Ohhh, ok. Thank you Tachi!

[Virginiá]

So if there's a split favoring Reeves in the "electoral college", it's not an automatic Reeves win but voted on by the members of the House per section 141.

I wonder if Mississippi's rules are even legal/constitutional. I've seen it mentioned that they are ripe for a challenge. Given that this convoluted system probably only came into existence to keep African Americans from meaningfully influencing elections, I'd say it would go to the courts if Hood won more votes but it got thrown to the Republican anyway.