Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1496605798977445890

Border cameras in Crimea down. Very bad sign.

[Omega21]

IF an invasion does occur, I think he'll go for the full, de jure borders of DNR and LNR, not any further.

1. Easier to control, since >50% of the population should be Russian or pro-Russian.
2. He already recognized the 2 "republics" with the de jure province borders.  

However, if it drags on until mid/end of March with no further moves, we're probably good.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1496607723768668162

Text messages reportedly not working in the Donbas area.

[Omega21]

Any idea of Ukraine's troop/equipment numbers on the border with Crimea / the 2 "republics"?

Curious to know if they're really putting effort into the area or if they're looking to hold back a lot to protect the inland part and limit any attack to the already half-occupied provinces.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

IF an invasion does occur, I think he'll go for the full, de jure borders of DNR and LNR, not any further.

I hope so, but that does not solve any of the issues Putin talked about in his speech the other night, so I doubt it.

I'm pretty sure Putin wants some sort of regime change in Ukraine, the only question is what kind and to what extent.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Any idea of Ukraine's troop/equipment numbers on the border with Crimea / the 2 "republics"?

Curious to know if they're really putting effort into the area or if they're looking to hold back a lot to protect the inland part and limit any attack to the already half-occupied provinces.

No, and the Ukranian military has asked people not to report anything on social media etc about Ukranian troop movements, something which I would urge everyone to respect while things are potentially about to get very hot.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

US Air Force spy plane (FORTE12) has turned around from Kharkiv and flying suddenly away.

Ukraine reportedly requesting another UN Security Council meeting. https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1496608902359756807

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1496618205804126209

Zelensky tried to call Putin, Putin did not respond. Makes pretty clear Putin is no longer interested in any sort of diplomacy.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/alexbward/status/1496618852687482883

Politico says rumor is Russian attack will start at 4 AM local time.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1496619010842152960
He had a good speech just now. It might be a very sad day today...

[NYSforKennedy2024]

https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1496619010842152960
He had a good speech just now. It might be a very sad day today...

How is any of this a war? Utter western propaganda and lies.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Also suppose Russia conducts a full-fledged invasion. What's their plan a month from now when tens of thousands are dead, there's no end in sight to a Ukrainian insurgency, inflation increases as it always does with war, and there's thousands of people protesting outside the Kremlin?

1) They will use lots of artillery and bombs against any insurgency. If there is resistance in a city, they will bombard it until resistance stops. It won't be like American counter-insurgency efforts where they give fairly high priority to avoiding civilian casualties.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1496614730064183298

2) There won't be people protesting outside the Kremlin because anyone who tries will get immediately arrested before they can even start.



Moscow police arrest lone anti-war protesters within minutes as Russia's propaganda machine ramps up

Muted protests in stark contrast to the Russian public response when the Kremlin annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014

Russian police have arrested several people who dared to publicly protest Moscow’s military escalation in Ukraine, bundling demonstrators in vans for holding up signs reading “No to War”.

While there is little or no public enthusiasm in Russia for active conflict with its neighbour, protests against a potential war have been muted after years of Kremlin crackdown on dissent. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1496615591943319564

[WMS]

Why do self-declared “anti-imperialists” somehow only mean what they perceive as U.S. imperialism to be bad and that it certainly doesn’t refer to the actions of those who are hostile to the U.S.?

LMAO

Two questions:

1) Where did you read I call myself "anti-imperialist"?

2) Where did you read I endorse powers hostile to the US as my default option?

I recall having stated my opposition to an invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops, but anyway let me tell you I can't stand hysterical dumbs.

Ah, not addressing my main point and adding a personal attack on top of it! Classy! I base my comment on your overall posting history, and your repeating the Russian lies over NATO expansion as fact. But anyway let me tell you I can’t stand arrogant, hypocritical, left-wing f***wits.

What's your main point, genius? Didn't you attack me in first place? Don't you know bold letters sound vociferously in the internet?

The NATO extension is one of the main pretexts cited by Putin to justify a possible aggression to Ukraine, yes. Said this, arguing that I'm repeating "Putin's lies" because I think such thing was a mistake reveals ignorance, lack of reading comprehension and bad faith.

My criticism on the quick extension of the NATO and the EU, as well as the attitude of the West towards the fotmer USSR after its collapse, is not aimed at justifying reactionary autocrats like Vladimir Putin

The collapse of the USSR and the subsequent chaos caused a serious impact that affected the psychology and self-esteem of the Russian people. Many Russians felt they were humiliated by the West and are longing a comeback of Russia as a global superpower. Putin takes advantage of these feelings, not unlike German nationalists took advantage of the feelings of humiliation caused by the defeat in WWI and especially by the Treaty of Versailles

As I outlined in a previous post, the best way to prevent the rise of certain brand of nationalism in Russia was not expanding the NATO to the east. The end of the Cold War opened a window of opportunity to build a different international order. I'm not speaking about "spheres of influence " or "buffer zones", but rather about some sort of Marshall plan. What was the point in preservIng the NATO once the Cold War was over? In the beginning Mikhail Gorbachev had the intent to transform the crumnbling USSR, following the socialdemocratic path of the Nordic countries. Why the West didn't help him and opted to isolate Russia instead? Either ideological arrogance or blindness prevented the West from realizing of the dangers. Putin's nationalism is in good part a consequence of that.

My main point, which was glaringly obvious given I provided ten goddamned different links supporting it, is that the Russian whining over NATO expansion is utter BS, and always has been. And I didn’t attack you personally, only your stances, until after you went personal, so no BS on that either.

To make such statements NOW, in the context of Russia invading Ukraine, absolutely is engaging in whataboutism. “Yeah Russia shouldn’t be there, but what about NATO breaking their promise not to expand east?” That’s mealy-mouthed bothsides-ism looking to justify Russia’s position. Oh wait let me f****ing quote you again:

When the western countries promised Mikhail Gorbachev the NATO would not expand eastwards from Poland

First of all, you’re getting your pro-Putin talking points wrong because they’re claiming the promise is that NATO wouldn’t expand eastwards from Germany, not Poland.

Second of all, that’s Russian revisionist history in their claiming they were promised eternal control over all their former satellites and former republics.

Third of all, who the f*** is Russia to claim a sphere of influence over other countries? As much as the likes of you bitch over American influence in Latin America it’s incredibly hypocritical to turn around and say Russia should’ve been given its own sphere of influence. Although that didn’t stop Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela from doing exactly that!

The idea that Russian wounded pride needed to be assuaged by letting them dominate their neighbors after the U.S.S.R. collapsed is trampling on the desires, wishes, and national sovereignty of every country east of Germany and west of Russia. Or are you overlooking the level of plundering and abuse the U.S.S.R./Russia inflicted on them for fifty years?

The only good point you have been is that more could’ve been done to develop Russia, but given how much aid vanished due to corruption as it was I’m not sure anything would’ve been enough.

In terms of forging peace, prosperity, and freedom, golly gee the combination of NATO and the EU has done an amazing job of that. Unless you think NATO should’ve occupied Russia after 1991 it’s not the fault of the West that Russia turned into a kleptocratic mafia state.

You mention the parallel of the Treaty of Versailles and Germany? Ah yes, “it wasn’t our fault we became Nazis it was everyone else’s fault” such a convenient way to dodge responsibility when it’s always the fault of an outsider.

Russia, and Russia alone, bears responsibility for this entire f***ed up situation. Not Ukraine, not NATO, not the EU, and not *****gasps***** the US! I know, not being able to blame the US for everything goes against the stance of a certain strain of the International Left, but you tankies are busy showing your true colors over this crisis, just like your counterparts on the International Right.

I read about those who refused to see the truth of what Nazi Germany meant for the future, but I never thought I’d witness the same type of phenomena in person.

[Helsinkian]

Reminder: in 2002 Putin said regarding Ukraine's Nato membership that "the decision is to be taken by NATO & Ukraine. It is a matter for those two partners".

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1495423040909365249

https://twitter.com/ValoisDuBins/status/1495583736670613507

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who cares if Putin said in 2002 that it was between Ukraine and NATO if Ukraine was a NATO member?
It's not 2002 anymore.  In 2002 America was sending troops into Tora Bora, Saddam was still president of Iraq, and it was only five years since Handover happened in Hong Kong.

[The Free North]

I find myself coming back to the same question: Why now?

Has public opinion in Ukraine shifted to be more pro western?

Has the situation in the east devolved enough that Russia needs to step in?

Are things at home that bad?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Reminder: in 2002 Putin said regarding Ukraine's Nato membership that "the decision is to be taken by NATO & Ukraine. It is a matter for those two partners".

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1495423040909365249
https://twitter.com/ValoisDuBins/status/1495583736670613507

It was before US showed in Iraq and Libya that you can sew chaos and deaths to millions, and nobody including people of Finland will care, if you're strong enough,. You set the precedent...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Emergency declared in Kyiv

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1496622412938493953

[The Free North]

Reminder: in 2002 Putin said regarding Ukraine's Nato membership that "the decision is to be taken by NATO & Ukraine. It is a matter for those two partners".

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1495423040909365249
https://twitter.com/ValoisDuBins/status/1495583736670613507

It was before US showed in Iraq and Libya that you can sew chaos and deaths to millions, and nobody including people of Finland will care, if you're strong enough,. You set the precedent...

'The US made a horrific foreign policy decision 20 years ago' isn't a casus belli or a moral justification for starting your own war.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I find myself coming back to the same question: Why now?

Has public opinion in Ukraine shifted to be more pro western?

Has the situation in the east devolved enough that Russia needs to step in?

Are things at home that bad?

There's no evidence of A and C, and insufficient evidence of B. I think (this is slightly oversimplifying it but whatevs) the reason he's doing it is that he thinks this is the best opening he'll get and he wants to be remembered as the man who stopped NATO's eastward expansion right in its tracks. And he doesn't trust the West's word either. So he'll remake the situation here, right then and now. He can then negotiate from a position of strength.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I find myself coming back to the same question: Why now?

Has public opinion in Ukraine shifted to be more pro western?

Has the situation in the east devolved enough that Russia needs to step in?

Are things at home that bad?

There's no evidence of A and C, and insufficient evidence of B. I think (this is slightly oversimplifying it but whatevs) the reason he's doing it is that he thinks this is the best opening he'll get and he wants to be remembered as the man who stopped NATO's eastward expansion right in its tracks. And he doesn't trust the West's word either. So he'll remake the situation here, right then and now. He can then negotiate from a position of strength.

He's also getting older and being in relative isolation for two years has given him a lot of time and space to reflect (brood) on capital-H History. One of Putin's few good points is that he genuinely cares about that sort of thing.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I find myself coming back to the same question: Why now?

Has public opinion in Ukraine shifted to be more pro western?

Has the situation in the east devolved enough that Russia needs to step in?

Are things at home that bad?

The reason Putin did what he did in 2014/2015 with Donetsk and Luhansk was that he wanted Donetsk and Luhansk to influence Ukrainian foreign policy - in particular, to have an effective veto over Ukraine further integrating with the west, via a federal structure stemming from the Minsk agreeement. And since Donetsk and Luhansk are Russian puppet states, that would have meant that Putin in effect could veto that.

However, it became clear that Ukraine was not going to allow its policies to be vetoed by the self-proclaimed Donetsk/Luhansk "People's Republics." And the problem for Putin was also that Crimea and large parts of Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts were out of Ukrainian control, meaning that those areas (the most pro-Russian areas of Ukraine) no longer were sending representatives to the Ukrainian parliament etc and were no longer influencing Ukrainian policy. So the absence of Crimea especially made the part of Ukraine that was left more pro-western overall.

It would be as though you had Russia come in and annex Texas. That would make America more pro-democrats overall and shift the country to the left.

So this was not working for Putin, and in fact in some ways was making things worse for Russian influence over Ukranian policy. So the only way he can now reassert Russian influence over Ukranian policy is by some sort of regime change, which requires an invasion and war.

[The Free North]

I find myself coming back to the same question: Why now?

Has public opinion in Ukraine shifted to be more pro western?

Has the situation in the east devolved enough that Russia needs to step in?

Are things at home that bad?

There's no evidence of A and C, and insufficient evidence of B. I think (this is slightly oversimplifying it but whatevs) the reason he's doing it is that he thinks this is the best opening he'll get and he wants to be remembered as the man who stopped NATO's eastward expansion right in its tracks. And he doesn't trust the West's word either. So he'll remake the situation here, right then and now. He can then negotiate from a position of strength.

Certainly. I watched all of his speech the other day. Ukraine is personal to him. He's clearly well read too, at least in broad stereotypes. He conveyed a clear idea of what Russia is and perhaps what he feels it 'needs' to be going forward. Its more than a security issue. Still, Nato expansion to his borders is not acceptable. Ukraine has drifted. Perhaps it was all inevitable, I just wonder if there was anything to justify the timing. Russian irredentism has always been there post 1991.

Thoughts with the people of Ukraine. Its hard to think of a country that has suffered as much in the past 100 years. They deserve better.

[Helsinkian]

It was before US showed in Iraq and Libya that you can sew chaos and deaths to millions, and nobody including people of Finland will care, if you're strong enough,. You set the precedent...

Already three years earlier Putin had killed over 300 Russians by blowing up their apartment buildings to create an excuse to kill thousands of Chechens.