New poll shows Asian-Americans are more supportive of Democratic Party than ever

[hopper]

I have to hand it to them, the Republican party is brutally efficient at alienating non-white voters. I wonder how they intend to fix this downward trend. Sneak into white women's houses at night and secretly impregnate them to create a white baby boom and reverse the current grueling demographic marginalization?

Ha Ha no. Birth Rates are pretty even with each ethnicity now that the Hispanic(Mexican Baby Boom) died when the Housing Bubble went bust. 

[hopper]

Honestly not important. Asians are demographically moribund and not likely to become electorally relevant anytime soon.

Not yet, and probably not for some time on their own, but they are part of a broader, growing coalition where smaller but very reliable groups of Democratic minority voters form a large set of voters who combine to make a potent voting bloc. Hispanics and Asians are low turnout but a lot of investment (of which Democrats doing this year due to Trump), and a controversial, divisive figure, ...like Trump, can make these voters even more consistently Democratic. It's not like that has happened before.

What happens when Hispanics and Asians start voting like African Americans? It doesn't have to be 90%+, 80%, which given the last election's numbers is very possible. 80% support for Democrats that is highly resistant to Republican efforts is a terrible situation for the GOP. Hispanic and Asian turnout won't always be low - Additional complexities and small investment / less engagement keep turnout low, and that is now changing for Hispanics.

When your (GOP) coalition is rapidly shrinking by the year, you can't afford to savagely alienate the fastest growing demographics. This election could set them back decades with minority outreach and put them at a big disadvantage in presidential elections going forward.

Um no party ID has mostly remained the same since 1992 with the Dems having a 6 point lead over Republicans or party ID being tied per Gallup except for 2007-2008 maybe.

[hopper]

Um no party ID has mostly remained the same since 1992 with the Dems having a 6 point lead over Republicans or party ID being tied per Gallup except for 2007-2008 maybe.

Millennials (those pesky voters who will make up almost half the eligible voters in 2020) are overwhelmingly Democratic and minorities, the fastest growing demographics are getting close to unanimously Democratic at this point. The GOP's coalition is essentially whites only with what, 10% of their party being non-white? On top of that, their coalition is disproportionately older. A lily white coalition in a country where the white voter's share of the electorate is dropping at roughly 2% - 2.5% every 4 years.

Republicans have a large new voter / demographic problem. There is no disputing this.

Ha Ha no. Birth Rates are pretty even with each ethnicity now that the Hispanic(Mexican Baby Boom) died when the Housing Bubble went bust.  

I'm unsure what your point is? If you mean the birth rates are now evenly divided between white and non-white births, then sure:

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/06/04/are-minority-births-the-majority-yet/

This shows exactly how fast this country is diversifying, given the race of babies born 40 years ago. That is pretty bad news for Republicans if they keep going backwards in minority outreach. My joke implied a white baby boom to put white baby births significantly further ahead of non-white births...

Going to your first paragraph the Black and Asian Population isn't supposed to grow that much over the next 50 years. Yes Republicans have a problem with Hispanic Voters which I don't doubt. True, I even highlighted that another post which you responded  to a couple weeks ago. We agree there.

True demographics are different than 40 years ago I don't doubt. Each election I think is different though. I'm not gonna race ahead to an election that might happen 20 years from now because the set of issues will be a lot different. You take election by election and play it that way.

Anyways racial/ethnic demographics of the 2014 mid-terms were the same as the 2008 Presidential Election. I do know that isn't indicative of future elections though since 2008 was a Dem Wave Year and 2014 was a Republican Wave Year.

[hopper]

Didn't Bob Dole win Asian-Americans in 1996? If they could swing for the Democrats so quickly, then maybe they could back for the GOP quickly.

I agree with that. It just won't happen in the age of Trump.

They can start making inroads with Asian Voters with the right candidate but like you said just not with Trump.

[hopper]

If Republicans want to take back this demographic, then they better do it quick and effectively. The strongest Democratic support is coming from Asian Millennials, and if Republicans can't break their political leanings now then they are looking at a lost generation of Asian American voters:



A voting bloc as small as Asians typically isn't that powerful, that is, unless the margins are as lopsided as they are looking above. Those kinds of ratings for Republicans are among the lowest of any demographic for the GOP. And no, the vast majority of these voters are not going to "wake up" and turn more conservative Republican as they age

I wonder why Millennial Asians are so much more Dem than other generations of Asian-Americans. Millennial Asians are 41 more points Dem than Asians ages 30+.

[hopper]

I wonder why Millennial Asians are so much more Dem than other generations of Asian-Americans.

Asians are a heterogeneous group and many national immigrations are ancestrally Republican/conservative. The thing about the younger generation is not merely the age difference: it is also the degree of assimillation. And Asians are assmillating into the Asian/urban mainstream, which is overwhelmingly Democratic.

I actually looked on how much % of Asian Population of a County that it took Obama in 2012 of winning 73% of the Asian Vote and it took a county with a 25% of Asian Population to get to the 73% number. If I took the 5% Asian Population(lets just estimate)of a county which was the same % as the countries in 2012 as a whole its only 55-40% Dem(don't know where the other 5% of the vote went.)

[hopper]

Here is the AALDEF breakdown based on age for the 2012 Presidential Vote for the Asian Vote and each age group was won by Obama.

18-29: 86-10% Obama
30-39 82-16%
40-49 73-26%
50-59 72-26%
60-69 72-27%
70 and over 76-23%

AALDEF says the Asian Vote was 77-21% Democrat as opposed to the exit poll numbers of 73-26%.

[hopper]

It's interesting to me that what is rarely brought up in these threads is that with the exception of southern blacks in the black belt, most ethnic minorities are heavily concentrated in cities, where democratic machines are very efficient at mobilizing and reaching voters.

What if this Asian transformation is in reality a symptom of the growing urban-rural divide?

There are a lot of rural Hispanics. I don't think they vote that differently from suburban Hispanics.

Republicans who think the right candidate will get them Asian or Hispanic voters are over-optimistic. Most minorities vote Democrat for a simple reason: they hold socially and economically liberal beliefs. That can be changed, but not in the short-term.

Asians and Hispanics aren't going in the same direction though. 2nd-generation Hispanics (excluding Cubans) are typically more conservative than their parents as they assimilate. Meanwhile, Asian voters go in the opposite direction because they probably cannot be assimilated in the same way and start adopting views similar to those of the racial "other" in American society (blacks).

A GOP that gets 60% of non-hispanic whites, 35% of hispanics, 15% of Asians, and 15% of blacks is in a perfectly fine position.

Why? I mean they aren't alot of Asian/Black Marriages as they are Whites marrying Asians, Blacks, or Hispanics.  

I think Hispanics don't mind voting for GOP Candidates at the State and Congressional Level but their Presidential Candidates suck bad the last 2 times out anyway with Romney and Trump.

[hopper]

It's interesting to me that what is rarely brought up in these threads is that with the exception of southern blacks in the black belt, most ethnic minorities are heavily concentrated in cities, where democratic machines are very efficient at mobilizing and reaching voters.

What if this Asian transformation is in reality a symptom of the growing urban-rural divide?

There are a lot of rural Hispanics. I don't think they vote that differently from suburban Hispanics.

Republicans who think the right candidate will get them Asian or Hispanic voters are over-optimistic. Most minorities vote Democrat for a simple reason: they hold socially and economically liberal beliefs. That can be changed, but not in the short-term.

Asians and Hispanics aren't going in the same direction though. 2nd-generation Hispanics (excluding Cubans) are typically more conservative than their parents as they assimilate. Meanwhile, Asian voters go in the opposite direction because they probably cannot be assimilated in the same way and start adopting views similar to those of the racial "other" in American society (blacks).

A GOP that gets 60% of non-hispanic whites, 35% of hispanics, 15% of Asians, and 15% of blacks is in a perfectly fine position.

That's a highly optimistic view of Hispanic voting trends and GOP voting share.

I don't think the GOP can keep the 60% White Voting Share in the long-term. Yes try to get 10-15% of the Black Vote. 35% of Hispanics is kinda neutral for the GOP in the long term. Gotta get somewhere around 40-42% in Presidential Years.