Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)

[Crumpets]

45 precincts left; Clinton maintains three-delegate lead (683-680)

I feel like I'm talking to myself at this point. Is anyone else still up?

Yep. (West Coaster)

[Crumpets]

What happens if it's a tie? A coin flip? lol

Didn't Hillary already win like 3 delegates by coin flip or something?

According to 538, that's not really what happened, but then again, it's 538...

[Crumpets]

One of Sanders' delegates just disappeared...

Probably from the precinct being disputed.

Do we know who is disputing it and why?

If it was resolved that quickly, it was almost definitely a clerical error that they were able to correct on the spot. Probably not voter fraud or anything interesting like that.

[Crumpets]

Sanders beat the expectations game, when everyone said he didn't have a chance and Clinton was expected to run away with this. She was up 20+ points, and Sanders was able to chip away at her lead to a virtual tie. Even with a better ground game and more cash on hand, she still couldn't run away with this. Bernie has the momentum, face the facts.

I always forget the DNC's rule that the candidate who beat expectations the most wins an extra 500 delegates at the convention.

[Crumpets]

What were the stats for Hillary voters that snubbed Obama in the general? I see Sanders' college voters going well over that number.

LOL, keep dreaming. 2008 primary was way more brutal than this year's.  

The dynamic is a bit different though with the more moderate candidate being favored to win this time. Bitter Clinton supporters defected to McCain (see Arkansas), while Bitter Sanders supporters would either vote Stein, or abstain, with maybe a few going to Trump if he makes the general. I can't say how that would change the results, but it wouldn't be exactly the same.

[Crumpets]

Here's the current county map Atlas-style minus counties with precincts still outstanding. It looks like Sanders was able to consolidate basically the entire Ron Paul supporter demographic in Jefferson county, interestingly enough, looking at the Republican results and seeing nothing unusual there.

[Crumpets]

Here's the same map with the leading candidates filled in in the incomplete counties:

[Crumpets]

It looks like Kossuth, Hancock, Fremont, Tama, and Muscatine Counties are now all 100% reported. Clinton up by 3, but I really can't see Sanders making up that difference with what's left.

[Crumpets]

It looks like Kossuth, Hancock, Fremont, Tama, and Muscatine Counties are now all 100% reported. Clinton up by 3, but I really can't see Sanders making up that difference with what's left.

Where are you getting the results from? The NYT currently has 698-694.

Politico. It's now showing everything in but Polk County and Clinton up 700-695 with 99.9% of precincts reporting.

[Crumpets]

There is indeed only one precinct left to report, which appears to be in West Des Moines. Hard to tell which way it'll go based on those around it.

[Crumpets]

Democrats have full results by precinct available here.

Can someone please make a map of this? Or at least post a blank, editable map of precincts?