Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Hydera]

Ugh, it will rain in most of the state south of I-10 at some point or another today. The rain right now is mostly focused in Acadiana. New Orleans and Baton Rouge will get some towards mid-day, but it looks like things will be mostly clear for at least the last 4 or 5 hours of voting there.

The north may be having an outsized influence here...

Not a big deal. Most of the rain is going to be in cajun country which has went from a democrat leaning to strongly GOP leaning region(even stronger than the traditionally republican north) over the past 1.5 decades.  

So this supposedly this should help bel edwards.... somewhat...

[Hydera]

Ugh, it will rain in most of the state south of I-10 at some point or another today. The rain right now is mostly focused in Acadiana. New Orleans and Baton Rouge will get some towards mid-day, but it looks like things will be mostly clear for at least the last 4 or 5 hours of voting there.

The north may be having an outsized influence here...

Not a big deal. Most of the rain is going to be in cajun country which has went from a democrat leaning to strongly GOP leaning region(even stronger than the traditionally republican north) over the past 1.5 decades.  

So this supposedly this should help bel edwards.... somewhat...

I was working a bit on the Nashville mayoral election a few months ago, and when it was supposed to rain on Election Day, the Fox people were excited, because apparently Republicans vote and Democrats don't on rainy days, but then it turned into a beautiful sunny summer afternoon, and Barry, the Democrat, won 55-45.  Rain might actually be good for Vitter here.

Yeah but the rain is mostly concentrated in Cajun country. Democrat's strength is mostly in south east where Baton Rogue and New Orleans is. Which won't be getting a lot of rain.

[Hydera]

^ Yes, in Louisiana voting is electronic.

Ohio 2004 redux?

I hate this conspiracy theory.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/oh_polls.html


Ohio was a tossup state and if theres a real conspiracy its Osama releasing a threatening tape a week prior to the election to help bush get elected since he knew the US would keep wasting resources on the mid-east if Bush was re-elected.

After the tape was released, it was all but certain that Bush gained enough support that he won Ohio.

Plus the polls a week prior, only one out of nine polls conducted in the state had Kerry leading.

I don't like Bush but he won Ohio in 2004 fair and square because of help from Osama.

dems have to really stop with their psychological obsession with "Ohio 2004 Electronic Fraud Bush Diebold Conspiracy" i know its your coping mechanism after losing that election but its as ridiculous as "Obama only won 2012 because of voter fraud".

[Hydera]

^ Yes, in Louisiana voting is electronic.

Ohio 2004 redux?

I hate this conspiracy theory.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/oh_polls.html


Ohio was a tossup state and if theres a real conspiracy its Osama releasing a threatening tape a week prior to the election to help bush get elected since he knew the US would keep wasting resources on the mid-east if Bush was re-elected.

After the tape was released, it was all but certain that Bush gained enough support that he won Ohio.

Plus the polls a week prior, only one out of nine polls conducted in the state had Kerry leading.

I don't like Bush but he won Ohio in 2004 fair and square because of help from one man.

Electronic voting machines never make mistakes. When Gore got -16,022 votes in one precinct in Florida, it was just a bad precinct for him.

There was a state-wide audit and it was corrected on the night of the election.

[Hydera]

Could someone give me a quick summary of the two republicans in the AG race?

Jeff Landry - Conservative evangelical Republican. Claimed that Obama gave TSA waviers to muslims.


Buddy Caldwell - Former democrat, who is preferred by democrats since he's less evangelical than Landry.

[Hydera]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Edwards won by 12 or more points.

Are you a contrarian?

Of course he is.

By the way, I'm sure Dems will find a way to f--k this up. Hoping for a 1-2 pt Edwards victory. We'll see.

There's nothing they could do that would equal to them having f**ked up.

John Bel Edwards hit hard on vitter's scandal. Campaigned aggressively and fielded attack ads and despite being a state that Obama lost in big margins will probably do better than obama's 40% in 2012. Along that he managed to get a moderate republican to endorse him.

At the end of the day, If he loses it won't be because he didn't do enough when he did but the voters of Louisiana have lost appetite for democrats and not even a great campaigner can reverse the tide.

[Hydera]

Quietly pushes 50.3% self edwards prediction to 54%

[Hydera]

Vitter isn't going to win if he's trailing by 16 while Nungesser is up 14.

Even though democrats always underperform with first results.  One of them is actually doing ok...

Edwards although behind, is doing much better in cajun country than i expected. Which shows that vitter not edwards is underperforming.

[Hydera]

Had Dardenne not endorsed Bel Edwards. The Lt Governor results would of been what is happening in the Governor's race right now.

Dardenne is owed a big ass favor since his moderate republican voters didnt go home as a lot of us thought would happen.

[Hydera]

I'll be updating this throughout the night. Hopefully I didn't transpose any colors!

Kinda wished he won jefferson parish just so all the edward's counties would be interconnected.

[Hydera]

Jefferson flipped to 51-49 Edwards with only two precincts left.

Looks like they finally got a return from a heavily dense black neighborhood.

Big suprise if the next precint is a heavily evangelical suburb that swings it back to vitter.

[Hydera]

Jefferson Parish precinct map.

The precints yet to be counted are heavily black neighborhoods. So the race might be ended with 56 OR 57% for edwards.

[Hydera]

Was wondering for a long time why Blanco won by a small margin despite winning so many counties. Then i checked the margin maps,  She super overperformed in rural areas but underperformed in the suburbs and as a democrat underperformed in the cities.

Edwards performed great in rural areas for a democrat, but did quite well in suburbs and the cities.


His next election will be much harder.


Plus the loss of the cajun voting bloc as a significiant base for democrats, means edwards will have to tread lightly next time when he doesnt have vitter to kick around and allow him to win parishes that are heavily GOP in presidential years.

[Hydera]

As far as turnout, I haven't seen anything published on the SOS site yet, but a good source purports that Edwards got 37% of whites with a 30% black electorate.

That site was talking about how Syria really didn't factor into the election. Personally i think without the Paris attacks in the last week, JBE would of won maybe around the 57% range. This is all my personal speculation,  Perhaps Cameron parish and Plaquemines with a large cajun population but where Edwards got 49%% he would of edged out Vitter.

But otherwise say Romney was President right now, the anti-incumbency factor would of allowed JBE to win around the mid 60s range and Win Cameron, Plaquemines, Iberia, Lafayttete, Ouchaita, Richland.

[Hydera]

Darker = More french speaking households

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/comparemaps.php?year=1988&fips=22&f=0&off=0&elect=0

TLDR: Democrat support declining in the historically democrat leaning cajun population.


Cajun catholics are more religious than other catholics so the rise of religious based voting issues might of had an effect down there.





If you want to read a little more into it, 70% of catholics voted for McCain in 2008. Compared to 47% who voted for Clinton back in 1996.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/louisiana-democrats-in-registration-only/?_r=0