France 2012: Official Results Thread

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In metro France/Corsica by canton, there is a strong positive correlation of 0.466 between the percentage of ouvriers and the vote for Panzergirl. There is a similar 0.475 correlation between the percentage of ouvriers+employees ('salariat modeste') and the vote for Panzergirl. In 2007, the correlation between ouvrier and Daddy was 0.471, in 2002 it was only 0.237.

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Cantonal version of the FN 2002 vs. 2012 map:

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New map!

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If anybody is interested, given that I have five days off, I can throw some constituency maps for each candidate together.

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The artisans, commercants category is way more of a petite bourgeoisie than an affluent liberal European upper/upper-middle class. The ones who come closest to such an attitude are the cadres/professions liberales.

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Tremargat seems to be a hippie commune. Significantly younger than surrounding areas, a bit more educated and Wikipedia describes it as having all that eco-friendly stuff associated with ruralish hippie communes. According to Google searches, there's also some recreational park nearby (http://www.loisirs-tremargat.com/). It seems to have been voting Green for quite sometime: Voynet in 1995 (23%), Mamere (29.7% + 13.2% for Lepage), 2004 regionals (38%), 2009 (51.9%) and 2010 (58.8%). And Bove got 26.5% there in 2007. It's part of a neo-rural phenomenon which, afaik, explains the tendency for there to be a lot of Green-voting communes in the Drome and Ardeche.

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Well, in the 2010 regionals and obviously the 2009 Euros, there are a ton of Green-voting municipalities in the Drome and Ardeche.

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Somewhere early in this thread someone mentioned that Joly won a tiny village (Trémargat) in inland Cote d'Armor - she did so with 29%, with Mélenchon second on 27%. And the next village to the north (Peumerit-Quintin), she tied Hollande and Le Pen with 20 votes each out of 102, with Mélenchon on 19. What the hell is that?

Hippies.

There's also the commune of Éourres in Hautes-Alpes that seems to be the French equivalent of Woodstock, NY: it voted 42% for Joly and 50% for Bové in '07. It was a Mamère-Besancenot tie in '02. The UMP vote declined from 8% to 5% over '07-'12 - but Chirac got zero votes in '02.

It looks like it's the site of some sort of artist colony or commune (in the American sense)

Great find! Hadn't ever noticed that one. The profile of the town is pretty amusing: http://www.franceelectorale.com/ville/eourres-26560

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I reopened the other thread for a reason, you know.

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Ifop poll breaking down results by news media consumption habits. Pretty interesting, if conforming to the stereotypes...

Evening news
20h TF1: Sarko 38, Marion 27, Hollande 17, Bayrou 7, Melenchon 6
20h France2: Hollande 36, Sarko 24, Marion 12, Melenchon 12, Bayrou 11, Joly 2
19-20 France3: Hollande 31, Marion 22, Sarko 17, Melenchon 14, Bayrou 9, Joly 4
Grand Journal: Hollande 38, Sarko 20, Melenchon 14, Bayrou 11, Marion 9, Joly 5
19h45 M6: Marion 25, Sarko 25, Hollande 22, Melenchon 12, Bayrou 8, Poutou 3
24h news channels: Sarko 30, Hollande 30, Marion 17, Melenchon 12, Bayrou 6
Don't watch: Hollande 30, Sarko 19, Marion 14, Melenchon 14, Bayrou 13, Joly 5

Radio:
RTL: Sarko 42, Marion 20, Hollande 20, Bayrou 9, Melenchon 7
Europe1: Sarko 36, Hollande 27, Marion 11, Bayrou 11, Melenchon 9
France Inter: Hollande 48, Melenchon 17, Sarko 13, Bayrou 8, Marion 6, Joly 5
France info: Hollande 31, Sarko 25, Marion 14, Melenchon 13, Bayrou 10, Joly 3
RMC: Hollande 26, Marion 24, Sarko 23, Melenchon 12, Bayrou 9
France Bleue: Sarko 26, Hollande 23, Marion 22, Melenchon 12, Bayrou 9
NRJ: Marion 33, Hollande 27, Sarko 17, Melenchon 11, Bayrou 6, NDA 3
BFM radio: Sarko 36, Hollande 24, Marion 15, Bayrou 12, Melenchon 7
Don't listen to radio: Hollande 29, Sarko 25, Marion 20, Melenchon 11, Bayrou 9, Joly 3

Newspaper
Regional daily: Hollande 31, Sarko 29, Marion 17, Melenchon 10, Bayrou 10
Le Monde: Hollande 45, Sarko 21, Melenchon 13, Bayrou 8, Marion 7, Joly 5
Le Figaro: Sarko 61, Marion 14, Hollande 12, Bayrou 6, Melenchon 5
Le Parisien etc: Hollande 28, Sarko 26, Marion 17, Melenchon 16, Bayrou 8
Libe: Hollande 59, Melenchon 18, Sarko 9, Marion 5, Joly 4, Bayrou 4
Les Echos: Sarko 50, Hollande 22, Bayrou 11, Marion 8, Melenchon 6, Joly 3
L'Humanite: Melenchon 62, Marion 12, Hollande 11, Arthaud 6, Bayrou 3, Joly 2, Sarko 2
La Croix: Sarko 32, Bayrou 29, Hollande 21, Marion 11, Joly 3, Arthaud 2, Melenchon 2
Free newspaper: Hollande 28, Sakro 25, Le Pen 16, Melenchon 15, Bayrou 9
Don't read newspaper: Sarko 26, Hollande 26, Marion 23, Melenchon 10, Bayrou 9, Joly 3

Magazines/weeklies etc
Le Point: Sarko 51, Hollande 20, Bayrou 11, Marion 10, Melenchon 6
Nouvel Obs: Hollande 52, Melenchon 15, Sarko 14, Marion 8, Bayrou 6, Joly 3
Le Figaro Magazine: Sarko 63, Marion 13, Hollande 10, Bayrou 6, Melenchon 6
Marianne: Hollande 52, Melenchon 19, Marion 10, Bayrou 8, Sarko 7, Joly 2
L'Express: Sarko 41, Hollande 23, Marion 14, Bayrou 9, Melenchon 8
Paris Match: Sarko 43, Marion 20, Hollande 16, Bayrou 9, Melenchon 7
Valeurs Actuelles: Sarko 73, Marion 10, Bayrou 7, Hollande 4, NDA 4, Melenchon 2
Don't read magazines etc: Hollande 27, Sarko 25, Marion 22, Melenchon 9, Bayrou 11

A pity they didn't ask for Point de Vue

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As promised, the constituency-level maps for the top 5

Flan



Poison Dwarf



Panzergirl



Angry Commie



Bearnese Moron

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Hash, I was wondering...
how about a comparison between NDA 2012 and Pasqua-Villiers 1999 ?

Unfortunately, no map from Euro 1999 are available any longer on your old blog

BUMP just for Hash

In a bid to restore this terrible thread, I drew up a correlation coefficient between the two variables at a departmental level, and it was only 0.17, which is positive but weak. I did find a 0.37 correlation between Boutin and Sarko, though (at a cantonal level).

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Either of Geoclip's OVF (http://franceo3.geoclip.fr/index.php?profil=FV#i=xd_pres2012_t1.nuance_tete_t1;l=fr;v=map12) or CDSP (http://cdsp.sciences-po.fr/AE.php) have them.

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A 5%-scaled map of the results of the first round by canton or city:



Have fun!

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This thread can now be used for results etc. My live blog is now open, go to my blog and click on the linkie.

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Are you people a bunch of stupid illiterate retards? I told you NOT to post the leaked results. Now go DIAF.

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Can't wait for the right-wing landslide in the 2014 regional elections.

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lol Flanby will be President. Haha. Epic fail for the Poison Dwarf, defeated by the guy who has the appearance of a creme caramel.

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Sarkozy wins Savoie 53-47.
Surprised. I expected a bigger margin.

Here's why: http://electionsfrance.wordpress.com/2012/02/26/political-profile-savoie/

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Hey, Aude is 56 for Hollande, I like it.

Fairly weak result in an historical context.

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Pierre Laurent is an inanimate tool, basically.

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While everybody wastes time with boring French abroad results, here's a very important map: Jospin 1995 vs Hollande 2012



What did I say? Le Havre-Meaux-St. Etienne-Perpignan. That's the new axis.

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One of the nicest moments of the election night.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z1L7xxmQsU

Yeah, it was a nice moment. But only because it proved that journalists, especially those on France 2, are useless idiots who are entirely and beyond useless. Last night was about as ridiculous as Wolf Blitzer getting high off the Minnesota caucus sites.

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My post on the runoff, for the few who care about my long blabber: http://welections.wordpress.com/2012/05/16/france-2012-runof/

A cantonal map is in the works.

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Here's the cantonal map, now by actual electoral cantons with urban insets!